M&A Activity Overview: Despite high-profile megadeals in 2025, overall U.S. mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity saw a decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year, with approximately 13,900 deals recorded, down from 15,940 in 2024.
Impact of Economic Factors: The sluggishness in dealmaking was attributed to tariff uncertainties, high interest rates, and a complex regulatory environment under the Trump administration, which created a cautious atmosphere among executives and bankers.
Sector-Specific Trends: While deal value increased significantly due to large transactions, middle-market deal volume remained low, particularly in the automotive and retail sectors, which faced challenges from tariffs and changing consumer dynamics.
Future Outlook: As the year progressed, there was a resurgence in deal activity, particularly in the banking sector, with expectations for a more active M&A landscape in 2026, driven by a more favorable regulatory environment and ongoing consolidation trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast NSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 316.56 USD with a low forecast of 297.00 USD and a high forecast of 340.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 316.56 USD with a low forecast of 297.00 USD and a high forecast of 340.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 289.080
Low
297.00
Averages
316.56
High
340.00
Current: 289.080
Low
297.00
Averages
316.56
High
340.00
Susquehanna
Susquehanna
Buy
maintain
2026-01-19
New
Reason
Susquehanna
Susquehanna
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-19
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Susquehanna expects Union Pacific (UNP) to trade down modestly on Tuesday after the Surface Transportation Board rejected the company's Norfolk Southern (NSC) merger application. The rejection is "without prejudice" and the STB invites the companies to re-submit the application in whole to address the deficiencies, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna continues to believe the transaction will ultimately be approved. It keeps a Buy rating on Union Pacific.
Citi
Neutral
maintain
$307 -> $317
2026-01-07
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$307 -> $317
2026-01-07
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Norfolk Southern to $317 from $307 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the transports group as part of its 2026 outlook. Citi sees a better setup in 2026 for the sector due to tighter capacity, which it believes should support higher rates.
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BMO Capital
Fadi Chamoun
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$270 -> $255
2026-01-06
Reason
BMO Capital
Fadi Chamoun
Price Target
$270 -> $255
2026-01-06
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Fadi Chamoun downgraded Union Pacific (UNP) to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $255, down from $270. The proposed merger of Union and Norfolk Southern (NSC) represents one of the most consequential developments in the rail industry in decades, with the potential to reshape competitive dynamics and the regulatory framework governing U.S. railroads, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm said that the risks extend beyond execution to the prospect of lasting regulatory changes that could impair the industry's historical value-creation model. Given limited visibility into regulatory outcomes and continued softness in freight demand, the firm is adopting a cautious stance.
Deutsche Bank
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$297
2025-12-11
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$297
2025-12-11
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
Deutsche Bank downgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to Hold from Buy with a $297 price target. The firm cites the pending merger with Union Pacific (UNP) for the downgrade. It notes the price target is inline with current trading levels.
About NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation is a holding company engaged in the rail transportation business. The Company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. It also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. It offers an intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. Its railroad operations system reaches various manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers and transload facilities. It serves various industries such as agriculture, forest and consumer products, automotive, chemicals, and metals and construction. Its coal franchise supports the electric generation market, directly serving over 18 coal-fired power plants, as well as the export, domestic metallurgical, and industrial markets, through direct rail and river, lake, and coastal.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
