Verra Mobility Faces Major Client Loss Impacting Growth Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 hours ago
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Client Loss Impact: The termination of the contract with Avis is expected to reduce Verra Mobility's Commercial Services annualized revenue by approximately $135 million to $145 million and segment profit by $120 million to $125 million in 2026, significantly undermining the company's revenue outlook and market confidence.
- Stock Price Plunge: Shares of Verra Mobility nosedived over 71% on Wednesday, hitting a record low, as multiple analysts cut price targets, with Morgan Stanley lowering its target from $15 to $4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's future.
- Rating Downgrade: William Blair downgraded Verra's rating from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform,' noting that the loss of Avis is a major blow to Verra's rental car tolling business, which carries a 65% EBITDA margin, suggesting the stock may remain range-bound over the next 12 months.
- Revised Outlook: Verra Mobility revised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook down from $1.02 billion to $1.03 billion to a range of $985 million to $995 million, with adjusted earnings per share expectations also lowered from $1.32 to $1.38 to $1.19 to $1.25, indicating increased financial pressure on the company.
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Analyst Views on VRRM
Wall Street analysts forecast VRRM stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.080
Low
24.00
Averages
29.33
High
33.00
Current: 13.080
Low
24.00
Averages
29.33
High
33.00
About VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation is a provider of smart mobility technology solutions across United States, Australia, Europe, and Canada. The Company operates through three segments, which include Commercial Services, Government Solutions, and Parking Solutions. The Commercial Services segment offers toll and violation management solutions and title and registration services for commercial fleet customers, including Rental Car Companies (RACs) and Fleet Management Companies (FMCs) in North America. It also provides tolling and violations processing services. The Government Solutions segment offers photo enforcement automated safety solutions and services to states, municipalities, counties, school districts, and law enforcement agencies of all sizes. The Parking Solutions segment provides parking software, transaction processing, and hardware solutions to universities, municipalities, commercial parking operators, and health care facilities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Verra Mobility Faces Major Client Loss Impacting Growth Outlook
- Client Loss Impact: The termination of the contract with Avis is expected to reduce Verra Mobility's Commercial Services annualized revenue by approximately $135 million to $145 million and segment profit by $120 million to $125 million in 2026, significantly undermining the company's revenue outlook and market confidence.
- Stock Price Plunge: Shares of Verra Mobility nosedived over 71% on Wednesday, hitting a record low, as multiple analysts cut price targets, with Morgan Stanley lowering its target from $15 to $4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's future.
- Rating Downgrade: William Blair downgraded Verra's rating from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform,' noting that the loss of Avis is a major blow to Verra's rental car tolling business, which carries a 65% EBITDA margin, suggesting the stock may remain range-bound over the next 12 months.
- Revised Outlook: Verra Mobility revised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook down from $1.02 billion to $1.03 billion to a range of $985 million to $995 million, with adjusted earnings per share expectations also lowered from $1.32 to $1.38 to $1.19 to $1.25, indicating increased financial pressure on the company.
See More
Verra Mobility Faces Major Setback After Avis Contract Termination
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- Analyst Downgrades: Morgan Stanley has lowered Verra's price target from $15 to $4 while maintaining an 'Equal Weight' rating, citing that the loss of Avis has dealt a major blow to confidence in the company's commercial services, reflecting significant market uncertainty about its future.
- Stock Price Plunge: Shares of Verra Mobility nosedived over 71% on Wednesday, hitting a record low as multiple analysts cut price targets and downgraded the stock, indicating a pessimistic sentiment surrounding the company's future prospects.
- Revised Outlook: The company has revised its 2026 total revenue outlook down from $1.02 billion to $1.03 billion to a new range of $985 million to $995 million, with adjusted earnings per share also lowered, directly reflecting the financial impact of the contract termination.
See More
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- Revenue Downgrade: Verra Mobility announced that due to a termination notice from Avis Budget Group, it expects a reduction in 2026 annualized revenue by approximately $135 million to $145 million, a significant adjustment that will directly impact the company's financial health and market confidence.
- Profit Impact: The company anticipates a decrease in 2026 annualized segment profit by about $120 million to $125 million, indicating that Avis's termination will severely affect its profitability, potentially heightening investor concerns about future performance.
- Negative Stock Reaction: Following the announcement, Verra Mobility's stock price dropped, reflecting market pessimism regarding the company's future prospects, which could affect its financing capabilities and competitive position.
- Legal Investigation Initiated: Holzer & Holzer, LLC is investigating whether Verra Mobility complied with federal securities laws, and if the investigation yields negative results, the company may face legal liabilities and further financial losses.
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- Impact of Falling Oil Prices: Crude oil prices dropped over 3% amid optimism for a normalization of oil flows from the Middle East, which not only eased inflation expectations but also pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, positively affecting the bond market.
- Decline in Mortgage Applications: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index plunging 18.1%, indicating the suppressive effect of high interest rates on the housing market.
- Corporate Earnings Overview: As of now, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, with overall earnings projected to rise by 12% year-on-year, but excluding the tech sector, the growth is only 3%, highlighting disparities across industries.
See More
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- Market Performance: On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.36% to a new record high, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.09%, indicating a divergence in market sentiment amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and declining oil prices.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices plummeted over 5% to a five-week low due to optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, which eased inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, providing support for the bond market.
- Mortgage Application Decline: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index down 18.1%, reflecting the dampening effect of high interest rates on housing demand, as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.65%.
- Corporate Earnings Outlook: As of Wednesday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with projected earnings growth of 12% year-over-year, but excluding the technology sector, the growth is only 3%, indicating signs of overall earnings weakness.
See More
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- Mixed Market Performance: On Wednesday, US stock indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 ending flat, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.4% to 50,644.28 points, reflecting investor caution amid mixed signals.
- Oil Price Decline: US crude oil prices fell 5.55% to settle at $88.68 per barrel after Iranian media claimed a commitment to restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although the White House denied this report, indicating ongoing uncertainty in oil price trends.
- Tech Stock Pullback: Chipmakers like Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC) experienced pullbacks on Wednesday as investors grew wary of persistent inflation and imminent rate hikes, leading to the Nasdaq snapping a four-day winning streak.
- Meta's Subscription Plans: Shares of Meta Platforms (META) rose following reports that the company plans to launch paid consumer subscriptions for its Meta AI chatbot, highlighting its strategic expansion in the artificial intelligence sector.
See More
Verra Mobility Faces Major Client Loss Impacting Growth Outlook
- Client Loss Impact: The termination of the contract with Avis is expected to reduce Verra Mobility's Commercial Services annualized revenue by approximately $135 million to $145 million and segment profit by $120 million to $125 million in 2026, significantly undermining the company's revenue outlook and market confidence.
- Stock Price Plunge: Shares of Verra Mobility nosedived over 71% on Wednesday, hitting a record low, as multiple analysts cut price targets, with Morgan Stanley lowering its target from $15 to $4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's future.
- Rating Downgrade: William Blair downgraded Verra's rating from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform,' noting that the loss of Avis is a major blow to Verra's rental car tolling business, which carries a 65% EBITDA margin, suggesting the stock may remain range-bound over the next 12 months.
- Revised Outlook: Verra Mobility revised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook down from $1.02 billion to $1.03 billion to a range of $985 million to $995 million, with adjusted earnings per share expectations also lowered from $1.32 to $1.38 to $1.19 to $1.25, indicating increased financial pressure on the company.
See More
Verra Mobility Faces Major Setback After Avis Contract Termination
- Contract Termination Impact: The termination of the contract with Avis is expected to reduce Verra Mobility's annualized revenue in the Commercial Services segment by approximately $135 million to $145 million and segment profit by $120 million to $125 million, significantly undermining the company's long-term growth projections in this area.
- Analyst Downgrades: Morgan Stanley has lowered Verra's price target from $15 to $4 while maintaining an 'Equal Weight' rating, citing that the loss of Avis has dealt a major blow to confidence in the company's commercial services, reflecting significant market uncertainty about its future.
- Stock Price Plunge: Shares of Verra Mobility nosedived over 71% on Wednesday, hitting a record low as multiple analysts cut price targets and downgraded the stock, indicating a pessimistic sentiment surrounding the company's future prospects.
- Revised Outlook: The company has revised its 2026 total revenue outlook down from $1.02 billion to $1.03 billion to a new range of $985 million to $995 million, with adjusted earnings per share also lowered, directly reflecting the financial impact of the contract termination.
See More
Verra Mobility Faces Investigation and Revenue Decline
- Revenue Downgrade: Verra Mobility announced that due to a termination notice from Avis Budget Group, it expects a reduction in 2026 annualized revenue by approximately $135 million to $145 million, a significant adjustment that will directly impact the company's financial health and market confidence.
- Profit Impact: The company anticipates a decrease in 2026 annualized segment profit by about $120 million to $125 million, indicating that Avis's termination will severely affect its profitability, potentially heightening investor concerns about future performance.
- Negative Stock Reaction: Following the announcement, Verra Mobility's stock price dropped, reflecting market pessimism regarding the company's future prospects, which could affect its financing capabilities and competitive position.
- Legal Investigation Initiated: Holzer & Holzer, LLC is investigating whether Verra Mobility complied with federal securities laws, and if the investigation yields negative results, the company may face legal liabilities and further financial losses.
See More
Mixed US Stock Market with Energy Stocks Under Pressure
- Divergent Market Performance: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.07% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.54%, indicating a divergence in market trends, particularly with the Dow reaching a new high, reflecting increased investor confidence in certain sectors.
- Impact of Falling Oil Prices: Crude oil prices dropped over 3% amid optimism for a normalization of oil flows from the Middle East, which not only eased inflation expectations but also pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, positively affecting the bond market.
- Decline in Mortgage Applications: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index plunging 18.1%, indicating the suppressive effect of high interest rates on the housing market.
- Corporate Earnings Overview: As of now, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, with overall earnings projected to rise by 12% year-on-year, but excluding the tech sector, the growth is only 3%, highlighting disparities across industries.
See More
