TMSL's Holdings Suggest a 14% Potential Increase
ETF Target Price Analysis: The T. Rowe Price Small - Mid Cap ETF (TMSL) has an implied analyst target price of $39.61, indicating a potential upside of 13.86% from its current trading price of $34.79.
Notable Holdings with Upside Potential: Key underlying holdings in TMSL include Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX), Avidity Biosciences (RNA), and Service Corp. International (SCI), each showing significant upside to their respective analyst target prices.
Analyst Target Comparisons: CLDX's average target is $55.69 (146.42% upside), RNA's is $67.00 (40.11% upside), and SCI's is $91.80 (15.10% upside) compared to their recent trading prices.
Investor Considerations: Questions arise regarding the validity of these analyst targets, including whether they are justified based on current market conditions or if they reflect outdated expectations.
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Analyst Views on CLDX
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- Price Range Analysis: CLDX's 52-week low is $14.40 per share, with a high of $30.50, while the last trade was at $23.64, indicating price fluctuations within this range and reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Technical Indicator Focus: The stock price has fallen below the 200-day moving average, potentially signaling further downside risk in the short term, prompting investors to closely monitor market dynamics for strategic adjustments.
- Market Sentiment Assessment: With the current price nearing the 52-week low, investor sentiment may be dampened, which could affect overall confidence in CLDX and warrant vigilance against potential selling pressure.
- Investor Strategy Adjustment: Given the volatility in CLDX's stock price, investors may need to reassess their portfolios, considering whether to hold or reduce their positions in response to market uncertainties.
- Executive Trading Activity: Freddy A. Jimenez, Senior VP & General Counsel of Celldex, sold 4,166 shares on December 4, 2025, for $121,210 at a price of $29.09, reducing his direct ownership by 11.92%, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future.
- Historical Comparison: This sale of 4,166 shares is significantly larger than Jimenez's previous sale of 771 shares on August 13, 2025, and exceeds the recent median sell size of 2,468 shares, suggesting a heightened sensitivity to market conditions.
- Company Financials: With a market capitalization of $1.82 billion, Celldex has faced deteriorating financials, reporting zero revenue in Q3 2025 and a net loss of $67 million, highlighting the severe challenges the company is currently facing.
- Other Executive Transactions: In early 2026, other executives also engaged in stock transactions, with CBO Pepin Ronald exercising options worth $105,744, reflecting differing perspectives among executives regarding the company's future despite the overall poor market performance.
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $25.00 put option is $3.90, and if an investor sells this option, they commit to buying the stock at $25.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $21.10, which represents a 6% discount to the current price of $26.53, making it attractive for those looking to enter at a lower price.
- Return Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 15.60% return on cash commitment, or 23.53% annualized, positioning this option as an appealing investment choice, especially in a volatile market environment.
- Call Option Opportunity: The $34.00 call option has a current bid of $2.00, and if an investor buys shares at $26.53 and sells this call, they could achieve a total return of 35.70% if the stock is called away at the August 2026 expiration, providing an additional revenue opportunity for investors.
- Market Volatility Consideration: The implied volatility for the put option is 76%, while for the call option it is 68%, compared to an actual trailing twelve-month volatility of 58%, indicating significant uncertainty in market expectations for Celldex's stock performance.
- Clinical Trial Launch: Celldex has announced the initiation of its global Phase 3 trial for barzolvolimab, targeting efficacy and safety in patients with cold urticaria (ColdU) and symptomatic dermographism (SD), with approximately 240 participants expected to be recruited, indicating the company's proactive advancement in treatment options.
- Significant Efficacy: In the Phase 2 study, barzolvolimab demonstrated that up to 75% of ColdU patients and 67% of SD patients achieved partial or complete responses, highlighting the drug's substantial potential to improve patient quality of life.
- Market Demand: Over 533,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe are affected by ColdU and SD, with more than 80% reporting inadequate disease control from existing treatments, underscoring the urgent need for new therapeutic options.
- Strategic Implications: The development of barzolvolimab not only targets ColdU and SD but also includes ongoing Phase 3 studies in chronic spontaneous urticaria, showcasing its broad market application potential and aligning with the company's long-term growth strategy.

- Trial Initiation: Celldex has announced the initiation of its global Phase 3 trial, EMBARQ-ColdU and SD, aimed at establishing the efficacy and safety of barzolvolimab in adult patients unresponsive to H1 antihistamine treatment, with plans to recruit 240 participants across 7 countries, highlighting the company's proactive approach in addressing cold urticaria and symptomatic dermographism.
- Significant Efficacy: In the Phase 2 study, barzolvolimab achieved a partial or complete response in up to 75% of cold urticaria patients and 67% of symptomatic dermographism patients at 12 weeks, indicating its potential to improve patient quality of life, especially in the absence of effective treatment options.
- Addressing Patient Needs: With over 533,000 patients affected by cold urticaria and symptomatic dermographism in the U.S. and Europe, and existing treatments proving inadequate, the development of barzolvolimab offers new hope for these patients, potentially leading to significant improvements in their quality of life and mental health.
- Future Outlook: As barzolvolimab advances across multiple indications, Celldex demonstrates its innovative capabilities in immunology, with expectations to provide more effective treatment options for patients, further solidifying its leadership position in the biopharmaceutical industry.

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