Validea's Top Consumer Discretionary Stocks Based On Benjamin Graham - 6/26/2025
Top Rated Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Validea's Value Investor model, based on Benjamin Graham's strategy, highlights several top-rated stocks including Graham Holdings Co (GHC) with an 86% rating, and PulteGroup Inc (PHM), M/I Homes Inc (MHO), and Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) all rated at 71%, indicating varying levels of interest based on their fundamentals and valuations.
Company Descriptions and Operations: The article provides detailed descriptions of each company, outlining their business segments and operations, such as Graham Holdings' diverse holdings in education and media, PulteGroup's homebuilding services, and Sally Beauty Holdings' retail operations in beauty supplies.
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- Revenue Performance: M/I Homes reported first-quarter revenues of $921 million, a 6% year-over-year decline, with pretax income dropping 39% to $89 million, indicating the impact of market uncertainty on performance.
- Sales Strategy: The company sold 2,350 homes in the quarter, with its mortgage operations capturing 96% of total business, up from 92% last year, demonstrating the effectiveness of its sales strategy.
- Financial Health: By the end of the first quarter, M/I Homes had a cash balance of $767 million and no borrowings under its $900 million unsecured revolving credit facility, showcasing a strong financial position.
- Future Outlook: M/I Homes plans to grow its community count by an average of 5% in 2026, and despite market uncertainties, management expresses cautious optimism regarding future sales traffic.
- Earnings Beat: M/I Homes reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.55, exceeding expectations by $0.04, indicating the company's resilience and profitability in a challenging housing market.
- Revenue Decline: Despite the strong EPS, the company's revenue of $920.71 million fell 5.7% year-over-year and missed estimates by $0.99 million, reflecting broader industry challenges and weak demand.
- Strong Market Position: M/I Homes remains a top-tier candidate in a struggling housing market, suggesting that it has maintained relative market strength and brand recognition amidst adversity.
- Future Outlook: As the industry faces ongoing challenges, M/I Homes' financial performance will be closely monitored, with investors needing to assess its adaptability and market strategies in upcoming quarters.
- Revenue and Profit Decline: M/I Homes reported a pre-tax income of $89.2 million and a net income of $67.8 million for Q1 2026, translating to $2.55 per diluted share, which represents a significant decline of 39% in both metrics compared to Q1 2025, indicating the adverse impact of challenging market conditions on profitability.
- Delivery and Contract Performance: The company delivered 1,914 homes in Q1 2026, a 3% decrease year-over-year, while new contracts increased by 3% to 2,350, demonstrating resilience in market demand despite the drop in deliveries, reflecting a strong performance in contract acquisition.
- Backlog Value Reduction: As of March 31, 2026, the total sales value of homes in backlog was $1.20 billion, a 23% decrease from the previous year, with backlog units down 21% to 2,245 homes and an average sales price of $536,000, highlighting ongoing pressures from supply-demand imbalances in the housing market.
- Strong Financial Position: M/I Homes reported record shareholders' equity of $3.2 billion and cash reserves of $767 million, with no borrowings under its $900 million credit facility, indicating a robust financial foundation that supports future growth strategies amid market uncertainties.
Market Overview: The housing market is experiencing fluctuations, with significant changes in home prices and sales activity in Q1.
Economic Indicators: Key economic indicators, including interest rates and employment figures, are influencing the real estate sector's performance.
Buyer Trends: There is a noticeable shift in buyer preferences, with increased demand for suburban homes and properties with more space.
Future Projections: Experts predict continued volatility in the housing market, with potential impacts from upcoming economic policies and market conditions.
- Earnings Announcement Date: M/I Homes (MHO) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on April 22 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $2.51, reflecting a 36.9% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $921.7 million, down 5.6% year-over-year, indicating challenges in the current economic environment.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, M/I Homes has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 63% of the time, demonstrating a degree of profitability and market adaptability during earnings releases, despite facing industry pressures.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw two upward revisions with no downward adjustments, indicating market divergence and uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite the struggling housing market, M/I Homes remains a top-tier candidate, although it faces rating cuts from Seaport on homebuilders, reflecting a broader trend of slowing activity in the industry.
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- Homebuilders Downgrade: Seaport downgrades Toll Brothers and D.R. Horton to neutral, anticipating a 15% downside due to ongoing demand pressures and book valuations below 2013 levels.
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