UBS Bullish on North American Containerboard Sector, Forecasts $40 Price Increase in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: seekingalpha
- Supply-Demand Improvement: UBS analysts highlight unprecedented capacity reductions of about 4 million tons, or 12% of 2024 demand, which should support at least one containerboard price hike in 2026, forecasting a $40 increase in Q2.
- Market Recovery Expectations: With lower interest rates and favorable tax policies, UBS anticipates a 70 basis point growth in box shipments in 2026, driven primarily by manufacturing activity and consumer demand.
- Stock Recommendations: UBS reiterated Buy ratings on International Paper (IP) and Smurfit WestRock (SW), viewing both as preferred plays in the containerboard recovery, with a target price of $51 for IP, implying about 20% upside.
- Cautious Outlook: UBS maintains a Neutral stance on consumer boxboard, warning of oversupply in the market, particularly as the expansion of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs may impact packaged food demand, leading to pricing risks for Graphic Packaging (GPK).
Analyst Views on GPK
Wall Street analysts forecast GPK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPK is 20.25 USD with a low forecast of 20.00 USD and a high forecast of 21.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 15.480
Low
20.00
Averages
20.25
High
21.00
Current: 15.480
Low
20.00
Averages
20.25
High
21.00
About GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a consumer packaging provider. It produces consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. It designs and manufactures packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, cups and bowls made from unbleached paperboard, recycled paperboard, and bleached paperboard. Its segments include Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage, and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants (QSR) in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside the Americas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
