Campbell's Reports 1% Revenue Increase in Q4
Earnings Report Overview: Campbell's reported a 1% increase in revenue to $2.32 billion for fiscal 2025, aided by an extra week in the reporting period and the acquisition of Sovos Brands, but organic revenue fell by 3%. Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 2% to $0.62, with management forecasting a 12%–18% decline in adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 due to rising costs and tariffs.
Segment Performance: The Meals & Beverages segment saw flat sales but a 3% decline in organic revenue, while the Snacks segment reported a 2% increase in sales but also faced a 2% drop in organic sales. Overall, the Snacks business experienced a 5% volume decline, prompting management to focus on product innovation and marketing.
Cost Management and Strategy: Campbell's improved its gross profit margin to 30.4% but faced pressures from inflation and tariffs, which are expected to significantly impact future earnings. The company is implementing a cost reduction program with a new savings target of $375 million by fiscal 2028.
Cautious Outlook and Risks: Management issued a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026, predicting flat to slightly declining organic sales and emphasizing the need to address tariff impacts and supply chain costs. Customer concentration remains a risk, with Walmart accounting for about 22% of total sales.
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Morgan Stanley Warns U.S. Food Sector Faces Intensified Competition and Pricing Pressures into 2026
- Increased Competitive Risks: Morgan Stanley analysts warn that the U.S. food sector will face heightened competitive risks as value-focused pricing, promotions, and private label momentum reaccelerate into 2026, potentially leading to downside pressures on market share and margin recovery.
- Rising Price Investments: Large retailers are actively reinvesting in pricing and promotional activities, compressing pricing headroom for manufacturers, indicating that any moderation in commodity inflation may not benefit margins but rather be reinvested back into the market.
- Rating Downgrades: Morgan Stanley downgraded Kraft Heinz (KHC) from Equal-weight to Underweight and J.M. Smucker (SJM) from Overweight to Equal-weight, reflecting a cautious outlook on the future performance of food manufacturers amid increasing competitive pressures.
- Target Price Adjustments: Analysts lowered target prices for several companies, including Conagra Brands (CAG) from $19 to $18, BellRing Brands (BRBR) from $41 to $32, and Campbell's Company (CPB) from $30 to $28, indicating a pessimistic outlook for the sector's future profitability.

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