This Uncommon Signal Last Appeared in 1998—Subsequently, Stocks Soared
Bond Market Signal: A rare bond market signal has emerged in mid-August 2025, reminiscent of conditions before a significant bull market in the late 1990s, indicating strong investor confidence in corporate debt.
Narrowing Credit Spreads: The spread between U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury yields has fallen to 75 basis points, suggesting that investors are willing to accept minimal risk premiums for corporate debt compared to government securities.
Broad-Based Credit Rally: Unlike the narrow equity rally dominated by a few tech giants, the investment-grade credit market is experiencing broad participation, with nearly all sectors benefiting from the tightening spreads.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts that as long as recession risks remain low, corporate credit spreads may stay tight, reflecting growing confidence in the overall health of the corporate sector, similar to patterns observed prior to previous market rallies.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on TLT
No data
About the author
Peter Schiff Disagrees with Trump's Claim That Tariffs Fueled US Wealth in the 1880s and 1890s – Offers Advice on Achieving Wealth Again
Economic Strategy Proposal: The Economist outlines a roadmap to restore U.S. wealth akin to the 1880s by proposing the elimination of 90% of federal government agencies, except for essential programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Critique of Government Spending: Peter Schiff argues that the U.S. was wealthier in the late 19th century due to minimal government spending, which was only about 2% of GDP, compared to over 23% today.
Call for Federal Law Repeal: Schiff advocates for the repeal of nearly all federal laws enacted since 1900 to facilitate a return to a tariff-based economy, similar to the prosperous era of the 1880s and 1890s.
Concerns Over Global Economic Impact: Schiff highlights President Trump's comments on other countries benefiting at the expense of the U.S. economy, suggesting that if these practices continue, it could lead to increased prices and interest rates for American consumers.
Bessent Supports Potential Senate Investigation of Powell Over DOJ as Republicans Aim to Overcome Senator Tillis' Resistance: Report
GOP Lawmakers' Compromise: GOP lawmakers view a proposal to investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as a compromise and an attempt to placate Senator Thom Tillis, who has expressed opposition to President Trump's nominee for the position.
Tillis' Stance on Investigation: Senator Tillis has stated he will oppose any Federal Reserve nominee until the Department of Justice's inquiry into Powell is resolved, emphasizing the importance of protecting the Fed's independence from political interference.
Federal Reserve Renovation Probe: The investigation into Powell is centered around a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building, which has raised concerns about potential misconduct.
Market Reactions: In the context of the ongoing investigation, U.S. equities showed gains, with various ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Treasury bonds experiencing slight increases, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market.
Could the US Government Close on Valentine's Day? Insights from Prediction Markets
Democrats' Stance on ICE Reform: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, refuse to support another stopgap funding measure for the Department of Homeland Security without an agreement on ICE reforms, citing the agency's negative impact on communities.
Recent Violence Linked to ICE: The letter from Schumer and Jeffries highlights the tragic deaths of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis due to actions by federal immigration agents, emphasizing the need for reform to prevent further chaos in communities.
Potential Government Shutdown: The U.S. government is facing a potential partial shutdown, coinciding with Valentine's Day, as negotiations over funding and immigration reform remain unresolved.
Call for Bipartisan Agreement: Schumer expresses optimism about reaching a bipartisan agreement on ICE reforms before the deadline, urging Republican leaders to collaborate on legislative solutions.
CITI PREDICTS FIRST RATE CUT OF THE YEAR IN MAY INSTEAD OF MARCH DUE TO JOBS DATA
Economic Forecast: CITI expects to deliver the first rate cut of the year in May, indicating a shift in monetary policy.
Job Market Insights: This forecast follows recent jobs data, suggesting changes in employment trends that may influence economic decisions.
Insights from the Treasury Market on the Economy and Stock Market Dynamics
- U.S. Treasury Market Stability: The U.S. Treasury market has shown remarkable steadiness recently.
- Impact on Economy: This stability is considered beneficial for the overall economy.
- Effect on Stocks: The steady Treasury market is also favorable for stock performance.
- Overall Sentiment: The current conditions are viewed positively by market analysts and investors.
3 ETFs Built to Withstand the Next Market Downturn
Market Trends: The stock market has shown upward trends in 2026, but there are concerns about potential cracks, particularly due to a slowing labor market and the risk of an AI bubble collapse, suggesting the market may be overvalued.
Investment Strategies: Investors are increasingly turning to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on risk management to protect their portfolios in case of a market crash, with several funds offering different strategies to appeal to cautious investors.
Stable Investments: The S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) and other funds focus on stable, large-cap companies, providing a defensive play during market fluctuations while offering dividends, making them attractive for income-seeking investors.
Long-Dated Treasury Funds: Long-dated Treasury bond ETFs, like TLT, may offer greater yield potential but come with higher interest rate risks, making them a more stable investment option compared to equities during market downturns.
Peter Schiff Disagrees with Trump's Claim That Tariffs Fueled US Wealth in the 1880s and 1890s – Offers Advice on Achieving Wealth Again
Economic Strategy Proposal: The Economist outlines a roadmap to restore U.S. wealth akin to the 1880s by proposing the elimination of 90% of federal government agencies, except for essential programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Critique of Government Spending: Peter Schiff argues that the U.S. was wealthier in the late 19th century due to minimal government spending, which was only about 2% of GDP, compared to over 23% today.
Call for Federal Law Repeal: Schiff advocates for the repeal of nearly all federal laws enacted since 1900 to facilitate a return to a tariff-based economy, similar to the prosperous era of the 1880s and 1890s.
Concerns Over Global Economic Impact: Schiff highlights President Trump's comments on other countries benefiting at the expense of the U.S. economy, suggesting that if these practices continue, it could lead to increased prices and interest rates for American consumers.
Bessent Supports Potential Senate Investigation of Powell Over DOJ as Republicans Aim to Overcome Senator Tillis' Resistance: Report
GOP Lawmakers' Compromise: GOP lawmakers view a proposal to investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as a compromise and an attempt to placate Senator Thom Tillis, who has expressed opposition to President Trump's nominee for the position.
Tillis' Stance on Investigation: Senator Tillis has stated he will oppose any Federal Reserve nominee until the Department of Justice's inquiry into Powell is resolved, emphasizing the importance of protecting the Fed's independence from political interference.
Federal Reserve Renovation Probe: The investigation into Powell is centered around a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building, which has raised concerns about potential misconduct.
Market Reactions: In the context of the ongoing investigation, U.S. equities showed gains, with various ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Treasury bonds experiencing slight increases, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market.
Could the US Government Close on Valentine's Day? Insights from Prediction Markets
Democrats' Stance on ICE Reform: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, refuse to support another stopgap funding measure for the Department of Homeland Security without an agreement on ICE reforms, citing the agency's negative impact on communities.
Recent Violence Linked to ICE: The letter from Schumer and Jeffries highlights the tragic deaths of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis due to actions by federal immigration agents, emphasizing the need for reform to prevent further chaos in communities.
Potential Government Shutdown: The U.S. government is facing a potential partial shutdown, coinciding with Valentine's Day, as negotiations over funding and immigration reform remain unresolved.
Call for Bipartisan Agreement: Schumer expresses optimism about reaching a bipartisan agreement on ICE reforms before the deadline, urging Republican leaders to collaborate on legislative solutions.
CITI PREDICTS FIRST RATE CUT OF THE YEAR IN MAY INSTEAD OF MARCH DUE TO JOBS DATA
Economic Forecast: CITI expects to deliver the first rate cut of the year in May, indicating a shift in monetary policy.
Job Market Insights: This forecast follows recent jobs data, suggesting changes in employment trends that may influence economic decisions.
Insights from the Treasury Market on the Economy and Stock Market Dynamics
- U.S. Treasury Market Stability: The U.S. Treasury market has shown remarkable steadiness recently.
- Impact on Economy: This stability is considered beneficial for the overall economy.
- Effect on Stocks: The steady Treasury market is also favorable for stock performance.
- Overall Sentiment: The current conditions are viewed positively by market analysts and investors.
3 ETFs Built to Withstand the Next Market Downturn
Market Trends: The stock market has shown upward trends in 2026, but there are concerns about potential cracks, particularly due to a slowing labor market and the risk of an AI bubble collapse, suggesting the market may be overvalued.
Investment Strategies: Investors are increasingly turning to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on risk management to protect their portfolios in case of a market crash, with several funds offering different strategies to appeal to cautious investors.
Stable Investments: The S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) and other funds focus on stable, large-cap companies, providing a defensive play during market fluctuations while offering dividends, making them attractive for income-seeking investors.
Long-Dated Treasury Funds: Long-dated Treasury bond ETFs, like TLT, may offer greater yield potential but come with higher interest rate risks, making them a more stable investment option compared to equities during market downturns.
