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  5. Considering the Lottery? Investing in IonQ Might Be a Smarter Choice.

Considering the Lottery? Investing in IonQ Might Be a Smarter Choice.

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
stocks logo
IONQ.N+12.56%
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Updated: Sep 01 2025
0mins
Intellectia AI SwingMax
Intellectia AI SwingMax
Source: NASDAQ.COM

Lottery vs. Stock Market Investment

  • Lottery Participation: Approximately 50% of Americans purchase a lottery ticket at least once a year, despite the extremely low odds of winning the Powerball jackpot, which stands at one in 292 million. The annual cost of buying a daily ticket amounts to $730, which often leads to financial losses that are unlikely to be offset by smaller winnings.

  • Stock Ownership: Only 21% of U.S. families own individual stocks directly, contrasting with the widespread lottery ticket purchases. The stock market is recognized as a significant wealth creator, with the S&P 500 delivering an average annual return of about 10% since 1957.

Investment Opportunities

  • S&P 500 Returns: If an individual had invested $730 annually in the S&P 500 over the past decade, their total investment of $7,300 would have grown to approximately $12,800, while a lump sum investment would have increased to around $28,250, showcasing substantial returns that outpace inflation.

  • Speculative Stocks: IonQ, a company in the quantum computing sector, has seen its stock price increase by 475% over the past year, although it still trades nearly 20% below its all-time high. The quantum computing market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.8% from 2024 to 2032, driven by advancements in technology.

IonQ's Business Model and Future Prospects

  • Quantum Computing Technology: IonQ utilizes "trapped ion" technology to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of its quantum computers. The company currently offers three systems and plans to launch a fourth, the Tempo, by the end of the year. Its systems are measured in algorithmic qubits (AQ), with expectations for the Tempo to achieve at least 64 AQ.

  • Revenue Growth: Analysts predict IonQ's revenue will rise from $43 million in 2024 to $315 million by 2027 as its technology gains traction across various industries. The integration of Nvidia's CUDA platform into its systems positions IonQ favorably within the growing AI market.

Investment Risks and Recommendations

  • Market Valuation: IonQ has a market capitalization of $12.85 billion, trading at over 40 times its projected sales for 2027, indicating a high-risk investment profile. The company is expected to remain unprofitable in the near term, making it a riskier choice compared to traditional index funds.

  • Alternative Stock Recommendations: The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor has identified ten stocks that are currently recommended for investment, which have historically provided substantial returns. Notably, past recommendations like Netflix and Nvidia have yielded extraordinary returns, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's average.

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Analyst Views on IONQ
Wall Street analysts forecast IONQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IONQ is 76.11 USD with a low forecast of 47.00 USD and a high forecast of 100.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IONQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IONQ is 76.11 USD with a low forecast of 47.00 USD and a high forecast of 100.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 48.650
sliders
Low
47.00
Averages
76.11
High
100.00
Current: 48.650
sliders
Low
47.00
Averages
76.11
High
100.00
JPMorgan
Neutral
initiated
$47
2025-11-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$47
2025-11-20
initiated
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan initiated coverage of IonQ with a Neutral rating and $47 price target. The company is "uniquely positioned" to lead the next generation of compute processing technology, quantum computing, which has the potential to unlock multi-trillion dollars in economic value, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm views IonQ's risk/reward as fairly balanced at current price levels, reflecting the stock's "steep valuation."
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
maintain
$60 -> $70
2025-11-07
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$60 -> $70
2025-11-07
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on IonQ to $70 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q3 earnings report. IonQ is in the very early innings of commercializing its technology, and Cantor thinks IonQ can capture 30% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035, which equates to $954M in present value terms, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
DA Davidson
Neutral
maintain
$35 -> $55
2025-11-06
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$35 -> $55
2025-11-06
maintain
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on IonQ to $55 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's "solid" Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with management raising guidance for the full-year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. IonQ continues to invest heavily for what is the next big technological paradigm of this generation and has bolstered its positioning with its recent capital raise and acquisitions of Oxford Ionics and Vector Atomic, the firm added.
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Moore
Equal Weight
maintain
$32 -> $58
2025-11-04
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Moore
Price Target
$32 -> $58
2025-11-04
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raised the firm's price target on IonQ to $58 from $32 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares ahead of the company's report due after the market close on Wednesday, November 5. The firm is expecting upside to revenue and "a bullish outlook" from management around recent news after the Trump administration signed two technology development agreements with the UK, Korea, and Japan that call out quantum specifically. All of those are geographies where IonQ has a footprint, the analyst noted in a preview.
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About IONQ
IonQ, Inc. is engaged in the quantum computing and networking industry, delivering high-performance systems capable of solving complex commercial and research use cases. Its generation quantum computers, IonQ Forte and IonQ Forte Enterprise, are cutting-edge systems, boasting 36 algorithmic qubits. It sells specialized quantum computing and networking hardware together with related maintenance and support. It also sells access to several quantum computers of various qubit capacities and is in the process of researching and developing technologies for quantum computers with increasing computational capabilities. It makes access to its quantum computers available via three cloud platforms, Amazon Web Services' (AWS) Amazon Braket, Microsoft's Azure Quantum and Google's Cloud Marketplace, and also to select customers via its own cloud service. Its product portfolio also includes quantum key distribution (QKD) systems, quantum random number generators (QRNGs), and single-photon detectors.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Preview
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

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