Ternium Expects Adjusted EBITDA Growth in Q2 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy TX?
The company said, "Ternium expects Adjusted EBITDA to increase in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter, driven by higher shipments and improved margins. Shipments are expected to rise primarily in Mexico and Argentina. Higher revenue per ton, especially in Mexico and Brazil, is anticipated to support the increase in Adjusted EBITDA margin, while higher costs per ton across Ternium's markets should partially offset these gains."
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Analyst Views on TX
Wall Street analysts forecast TX stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 46.220
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
Current: 46.220
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
About TX
Ternium S.A. is a producer of steel products. The Company produces finished and semi-finished steel products and iron ore, which are sold either directly to steel manufacturers, steel processors or end users. The Company operates through two segments: Steel and Mining. The Steel segment includes the sales of steel products, and the Mining segment includes the sales of iron ore products, which are primarily inter-company. The Steel segment comprises three operating segments: Mexico, the Southern Region, and Other Markets. In the steel segment, steel products include slabs, billets, and round bars (steel in its basic, semi-finished state), hot-rolled coils and sheets, bars and stirrups, wire rods, cold-rolled coils and sheets, tin plate, hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets and pre-painted sheets, steel pipes and tubular products, beams, roll-formed products, and other products. In the mining segment, iron ore is sold as concentrates (fines) and pellets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ternium Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Margin Recovery: Ternium's earnings margin reached 12% in Q1, with CEO Vedoya noting this recovery is primarily driven by improving demand in Mexico, and he expects volumes to continue increasing in Q2, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position.
- Production Ahead of Schedule: The ramp-up of the cold rolling and galvanizing lines at the Pesqueria facility is ahead of plan, with expectations to operate close to full capacity by October, significantly boosting the company's production capabilities and market responsiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA increased by 21% sequentially in Q1, with CFO Brizzio forecasting continued margin improvement despite rising costs per ton, indicating effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Trade Policy Risks: While management remains optimistic about the USMCA agreement, CEO Vedoya highlighted uncertainties in the timeline, which could impact future market dynamics, especially against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks.
See More
Ternium Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Ternium reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.09, exceeding expectations by $0.29, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Stable Revenue: The company's revenue of $3.93 billion remained flat year-over-year but fell short of market expectations by $30 million, reflecting challenges in market demand that could impact future growth outlook.
- Rating Upgrade: BofA upgraded Ternium to a 'Buy' rating, identifying it as a solid option for investing in U.S. flat steel, which may attract more investor interest and enhance the company's market position.
- Technical Analysis Outlook: Analysts suggest that Ternium's stock price is likely to retest levels above $45, indicating optimistic expectations for the company's future performance, which could drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Ternium Declares $1.30 Interim Dividend Per ADS
- Dividend Announcement: Ternium has declared an interim dividend of $1.30 per American Depositary Share (ADS), reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, providing shareholders with a clear timeline that enhances market confidence in the company's dividend policy.
- Dividend Growth Potential: The dividend growth is closely tied to Ternium's strong financial performance, as a robust steel manufacturer, the company not only offers growth opportunities but also provides a stable income source for investors, further solidifying its position in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following BofA's upgrade of Ternium to a “Buy” rating, market perception of the company as a “solid option” for investing in U.S. flat steel has improved, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
TERNIUM SA: BOARD AMENDS FY2025 DIVIDEND PROPOSAL, REDUCING RECOMMENDED PAYOUT TO $2.20 PER ADS FROM $2.70 PER ADS
- Dividend Proposal Revision: Ternium has revised its dividend proposal for FY 2025, lowering the recommended payout.
- New Dividend Amount: The new proposed dividend is set at $2.20 per ADS, down from the previously announced $2.70 per ADS.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Ternium to Buy with $47.50 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Ternium from Neutral to Buy with a price target increase from $46 to $47.50, reflecting optimism about stronger-than-expected North American flat steel pricing, which is expected to drive the company's stock price higher.
- Capital Spending Inflection: Analysts highlighted that 2027 marks a capital spending inflection point for Ternium, as the completion of the Pesquería expansion is projected to yield approximately 10% free cash flow, enhancing the company's financial health and investment appeal.
- Trade Policy Beneficiary: Ternium is seen as a primary beneficiary of a potential USMCA renegotiation, which could lead to exemptions from U.S. tariffs, thereby further enhancing its market competitiveness and profitability.
- Industry Comparison: Bank of America also reiterated its Buy rating on Gerdau, noting its strong performance in North America and a backlog of approximately 90 days, indicating the company's relative strength in the industry.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- Tesla Rating Maintained: Wells Fargo reiterates its underweight rating on Tesla ahead of earnings, indicating a cautious outlook due to limited progress on Robotaxi and Optimus, suggesting a strategic pivot towards Semi and Roadster could be necessary for future growth.
- Starbucks Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgrades Starbucks from sell to hold, citing stabilization in the U.S. market, and while the stock trades at a high premium, the expectation of more realistic earnings estimates reflects a more optimistic view on the company's future performance.
- Nokia Transformation: Bank of America upgrades Nokia from neutral to buy, highlighting its transition into an optical powerhouse, which positions the company favorably in the telecom equipment market and suggests significant growth potential ahead.
- Chime Financial Rating Initiated: Wells Fargo initiates coverage on Chime Financial with an overweight rating, recognizing its strong growth and profitability in the digital banking sector, and anticipates a positive impact from the upcoming tax season.
See More
Ternium Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Margin Recovery: Ternium's earnings margin reached 12% in Q1, with CEO Vedoya noting this recovery is primarily driven by improving demand in Mexico, and he expects volumes to continue increasing in Q2, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position.
- Production Ahead of Schedule: The ramp-up of the cold rolling and galvanizing lines at the Pesqueria facility is ahead of plan, with expectations to operate close to full capacity by October, significantly boosting the company's production capabilities and market responsiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA increased by 21% sequentially in Q1, with CFO Brizzio forecasting continued margin improvement despite rising costs per ton, indicating effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Trade Policy Risks: While management remains optimistic about the USMCA agreement, CEO Vedoya highlighted uncertainties in the timeline, which could impact future market dynamics, especially against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks.
See More
Ternium Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Ternium reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.09, exceeding expectations by $0.29, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Stable Revenue: The company's revenue of $3.93 billion remained flat year-over-year but fell short of market expectations by $30 million, reflecting challenges in market demand that could impact future growth outlook.
- Rating Upgrade: BofA upgraded Ternium to a 'Buy' rating, identifying it as a solid option for investing in U.S. flat steel, which may attract more investor interest and enhance the company's market position.
- Technical Analysis Outlook: Analysts suggest that Ternium's stock price is likely to retest levels above $45, indicating optimistic expectations for the company's future performance, which could drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Ternium Declares $1.30 Interim Dividend Per ADS
- Dividend Announcement: Ternium has declared an interim dividend of $1.30 per American Depositary Share (ADS), reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, providing shareholders with a clear timeline that enhances market confidence in the company's dividend policy.
- Dividend Growth Potential: The dividend growth is closely tied to Ternium's strong financial performance, as a robust steel manufacturer, the company not only offers growth opportunities but also provides a stable income source for investors, further solidifying its position in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following BofA's upgrade of Ternium to a “Buy” rating, market perception of the company as a “solid option” for investing in U.S. flat steel has improved, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
TERNIUM SA: BOARD AMENDS FY2025 DIVIDEND PROPOSAL, REDUCING RECOMMENDED PAYOUT TO $2.20 PER ADS FROM $2.70 PER ADS
- Dividend Proposal Revision: Ternium has revised its dividend proposal for FY 2025, lowering the recommended payout.
- New Dividend Amount: The new proposed dividend is set at $2.20 per ADS, down from the previously announced $2.70 per ADS.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Ternium to Buy with $47.50 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Ternium from Neutral to Buy with a price target increase from $46 to $47.50, reflecting optimism about stronger-than-expected North American flat steel pricing, which is expected to drive the company's stock price higher.
- Capital Spending Inflection: Analysts highlighted that 2027 marks a capital spending inflection point for Ternium, as the completion of the Pesquería expansion is projected to yield approximately 10% free cash flow, enhancing the company's financial health and investment appeal.
- Trade Policy Beneficiary: Ternium is seen as a primary beneficiary of a potential USMCA renegotiation, which could lead to exemptions from U.S. tariffs, thereby further enhancing its market competitiveness and profitability.
- Industry Comparison: Bank of America also reiterated its Buy rating on Gerdau, noting its strong performance in North America and a backlog of approximately 90 days, indicating the company's relative strength in the industry.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- Tesla Rating Maintained: Wells Fargo reiterates its underweight rating on Tesla ahead of earnings, indicating a cautious outlook due to limited progress on Robotaxi and Optimus, suggesting a strategic pivot towards Semi and Roadster could be necessary for future growth.
- Starbucks Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgrades Starbucks from sell to hold, citing stabilization in the U.S. market, and while the stock trades at a high premium, the expectation of more realistic earnings estimates reflects a more optimistic view on the company's future performance.
- Nokia Transformation: Bank of America upgrades Nokia from neutral to buy, highlighting its transition into an optical powerhouse, which positions the company favorably in the telecom equipment market and suggests significant growth potential ahead.
- Chime Financial Rating Initiated: Wells Fargo initiates coverage on Chime Financial with an overweight rating, recognizing its strong growth and profitability in the digital banking sector, and anticipates a positive impact from the upcoming tax season.
See More
