Tech ETF XLK Poised for Its Longest Rally Since 2020: Here's What You Need to Know
ETF Performance: The SPDR S&P Information Technology ETF (XLK) has achieved a 10-day winning streak, gaining 3.5% last week, driven by stocks like NVIDIA and other chipmakers, rather than mega-cap tech companies like Meta and Alphabet.
Semiconductor Market Growth: The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecasts a 25% growth in the global semiconductor market for 2026, reaching $975 billion, with memory and logic sectors leading the growth.
Software Market Expansion: The global software market is projected to grow from $823.9 billion in 2025 to approximately $2.25 trillion by 2034, fueled by advancements in AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity.
Investment Opportunities: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) are highlighted as strong investment options, with SMH rated as a "Strong Buy" and XSW as a "Buy" according to Zacks.
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- Stock Split Motivation: Meta has yet to execute a stock split despite its stock price rising over 200% in the past three years, currently trading around $670, which may deter some investors due to its psychological price barrier.
- Market Performance Analysis: Although Meta's stock has declined over 6% in the past year, its market capitalization remains at $1.7 trillion, indicating the company's strong position and potential investment appeal in the market.
- AI Investment Priority: Meta has recently focused on enhancing its AI capabilities and infrastructure investments, suggesting that a stock split is not a current priority but may be reconsidered in 2026.
- Future Outlook: Should Meta's stock gain momentum and rise quickly in the coming year, it may contemplate executing a stock split, aligning itself with other tech giants to attract more investors.
- Disappointing Earnings Report: Pinterest reported Q4 revenue of $1.32 billion and adjusted profit of $0.56 per share, both falling short of analysts' expectations of $1.33 billion and $0.67, indicating ongoing pressure in advertising revenue amidst competition from Meta and Snapchat.
- Gloomy Q1 Outlook: The company forecasts Q1 revenue between $951 million and $971 million, below the average analyst estimate of $980.6 million, reflecting market concerns about its future growth potential, which may further erode investor confidence.
- Stock Price Volatility: Following the earnings report, Pinterest shares plummeted over 18% in after-hours trading, and have already declined about 28% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant market unease regarding its financial health, reminiscent of the nearly 22% drop after its Q3 report last year.
- Layoffs and Restructuring Plans: Pinterest announced it would lay off under 15% of its workforce and reduce office space to redirect resources towards artificial intelligence, aiming to enhance competitiveness through transformation initiatives, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen.
- Tech Sector Retreat: U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.57%, the Dow Jones down 1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.04%, primarily driven by a sell-off in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, indicating concerns over the profitability outlook in the tech sector.
- Cisco Systems Warning: Cisco Systems saw its stock plummet over 12% after forecasting that rising memory chip prices would erode profitability, raising investor concerns about future performance and potentially diminishing market confidence.
- Weak Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 5,000 to 227,000, below the expected 223,000, while January existing home sales dropped 8.4% month-over-month to 3.91 million, marking a 16-month low, which reflects signs of economic slowdown that could impact market sentiment.
- Positive Earnings Season: Despite the overall market downturn, over 76% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, indicating strong corporate profitability that may provide support for the market.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Top hyperscalers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 70% this year, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft planning a combined spending of over $600 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite the significant increase in capital spending, Amazon and Microsoft's shares have dropped 12% and 16% respectively, while Alphabet's stock is down less than 1% and Meta's has risen by 1%, reflecting investor concerns about the timing of returns on these investments.
- Infrastructure Investment Opportunities: With spending accelerating, investors are drawn to
- Revenue Growth: Airbnb's Q4 revenue increased by 12% to $2.78 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $2.72 billion, yet the earnings per share of 56 cents fell short of the anticipated 66 cents, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Future Outlook: The company expects Q1 revenue to range between $2.59 billion and $2.63 billion, slightly above analysts' forecast of $2.53 billion, suggesting ongoing growth potential in the market.
- Booking Volume Increase: Airbnb reported 121.9 million nights booked in Q4, a 10% year-over-year increase that exceeded the expected 117.6 million, reflecting strong user demand and platform appeal.
- Management Change: The appointment of Ahmad Al-Dahle as the new CTO signifies a strategic shift in Airbnb's focus on technological innovation, aiming to leverage AI to enhance travel and e-commerce experiences.
- Tech Stocks Plummet: Fears of potential disruptions from artificial intelligence led to a significant decline in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2% and Apple shares falling around 5%, indicating market anxiety about the future of the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 1.3%, or over 650 points, breaking a three-day winning streak, reflecting investor caution ahead of upcoming inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.
- Gold and Bitcoin Drop: Gold futures sank 3%, while Bitcoin prices also declined to around $65,000, as investors adopted a risk-off stance, highlighting concerns about the future economic outlook.
- Employment Data Impacting Policy Expectations: Despite January's job additions being double the expected amount, the strong labor market has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, increasing uncertainty in the stock market.








