Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Disrupts Fertilizer Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 12 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Fertilizer Price Volatility: The shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is causing immediate volatility in liquid fertilizer prices, as noted by Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander, who believes that despite a rally in fertilizer stocks this month, two producers may have further upside potential.
- Price Increase Metrics: Since late February, the price of U.S. Gulf NOLA urea-ammonium nitrate has surged by 21%, indicating that global fertilizer markets have tightened sharply due to Middle Eastern producers halting production, particularly as the spring planting season commences.
- Rating Adjustments: Jefferies upgraded Nutrien to a buy rating and raised its price target from $74 to $96, suggesting a 21% upside, while also increasing LSB Industries' target from $11 to $15, although it maintained a hold rating on the stock.
- Market Demand Impact: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 27% of global ammonia and 35% of global urea flows, and even if it reopens, normalizing fertilizer trade may take time, especially with high demand during the spring planting season, where logistical and production challenges could keep prices elevated in the short term.
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Analyst Views on LXU
Wall Street analysts forecast LXU stock price to fall
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.990
Low
9.75
Averages
10.38
High
11.00
Current: 14.990
Low
9.75
Averages
10.38
High
11.00
About LXU
LSB Industries, Inc. is engaged in the manufacture and sale of chemical products. The chemical products it primarily manufactures, markets and sells are ammonia, fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate (HDAN) and urea ammonia nitrate (UAN) for agricultural applications, high purity and commercial grade ammonia, high purity ammonium nitrate, sulfuric acids, concentrated, blended and regular nitric acid, mixed nitrating acids, carbon dioxide, and industrial grade ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate solutions for industrial applications. It manufactures ammonia and ammonia-related products at facilities in Cherokee, Alabama, El Dorado, Arkansas and Pryor, Oklahoma and operates a facility for a global chemical company in Baytown, Texas. Its products are sold through distributors and directly to end customers, such as farmers, ranchers, and fertilizer dealers, throughout the United States and parts of Canada, and to explosives manufacturers in the United States and other parts of North America.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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