Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Disrupts Fertilizer Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 12 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Fertilizer Price Volatility: The shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is causing immediate volatility in liquid fertilizer prices, as noted by Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander, who believes that despite a rally in fertilizer stocks this month, two producers may have further upside potential.
- Price Increase Metrics: Since late February, the price of U.S. Gulf NOLA urea-ammonium nitrate has surged by 21%, indicating that global fertilizer markets have tightened sharply due to Middle Eastern producers halting production, particularly as the spring planting season commences.
- Rating Adjustments: Jefferies upgraded Nutrien to a buy rating and raised its price target from $74 to $96, suggesting a 21% upside, while also increasing LSB Industries' target from $11 to $15, although it maintained a hold rating on the stock.
- Market Demand Impact: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 27% of global ammonia and 35% of global urea flows, and even if it reopens, normalizing fertilizer trade may take time, especially with high demand during the spring planting season, where logistical and production challenges could keep prices elevated in the short term.
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Analyst Views on LXU
Wall Street analysts forecast LXU stock price to fall
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.300
Low
9.75
Averages
10.38
High
11.00
Current: 16.300
Low
9.75
Averages
10.38
High
11.00
About LXU
LSB Industries, Inc. is engaged in the manufacture and sale of chemical products. The chemical products it primarily manufactures, markets and sells are ammonia, fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate (HDAN) and urea ammonia nitrate (UAN) for agricultural applications, high purity and commercial grade ammonia, high purity ammonium nitrate, sulfuric acids, concentrated, blended and regular nitric acid, mixed nitrating acids, carbon dioxide, and industrial grade ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate solutions for industrial applications. It manufactures ammonia and ammonia-related products at facilities in Cherokee, Alabama, El Dorado, Arkansas and Pryor, Oklahoma and operates a facility for a global chemical company in Baytown, Texas. Its products are sold through distributors and directly to end customers, such as farmers, ranchers, and fertilizer dealers, throughout the United States and parts of Canada, and to explosives manufacturers in the United States and other parts of North America.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Form 144: LSB Industries (LXU.US) 10% Stakeholder Plans to Sell $72.6 Million in Common Shares
- Stock Sale Announcement: Todd L. Boehly plans to sell 4.89 million shares of LSB Industries' common stock on March 26.
- Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $72.6 million.
See More
LSB Industries Inc: UBS Increases Target Price from $9.75 to $16.5
- UBS Raises Target Price: UBS has increased its target price for a specific stock from $9.75 to $16.50.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects UBS's positive outlook on the stock's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Disrupts Fertilizer Prices
- Fertilizer Price Volatility: The shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is causing immediate volatility in liquid fertilizer prices, as noted by Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander, who believes that despite a rally in fertilizer stocks this month, two producers may have further upside potential.
- Price Increase Metrics: Since late February, the price of U.S. Gulf NOLA urea-ammonium nitrate has surged by 21%, indicating that global fertilizer markets have tightened sharply due to Middle Eastern producers halting production, particularly as the spring planting season commences.
- Rating Adjustments: Jefferies upgraded Nutrien to a buy rating and raised its price target from $74 to $96, suggesting a 21% upside, while also increasing LSB Industries' target from $11 to $15, although it maintained a hold rating on the stock.
- Market Demand Impact: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 27% of global ammonia and 35% of global urea flows, and even if it reopens, normalizing fertilizer trade may take time, especially with high demand during the spring planting season, where logistical and production challenges could keep prices elevated in the short term.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Nitrogen Prices Up
- Nitrogen Price Surge: Barclays analysts indicate that the Middle East conflict could lead to sustained nitrogen price increases through at least the first half of 2026, enhancing profitability for North American producers like CF Industries.
- CF Stock Outperformance: CF Industries' stock has rallied over 20% this month amid escalating conflict, with global urea prices surging and supply chain tightening, making it one of the market's biggest winners, and trading up about 4% in pre-market on Thursday.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Analysts raised CF's price target from $100 to $120 while maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, anticipating that supply chain disruptions will further elevate nitrogen fertilizer costs, benefiting CF.
- Strong Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'extremely bullish', with one user predicting the stock could rise to $152, implying a 36% upside from its last closing price, reflecting optimistic market expectations for CF's future.
See More
Ivanhoe Electric and LSB Industries See Active Options Trading
- Ivanhoe Electric Options Volume: Ivanhoe Electric Inc's options volume reached 21,582 contracts, representing approximately 2.2 million shares, which is 120.2% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating strong market interest in the stock.
- High Volume Put Options: Within Ivanhoe Electric, the $10 strike put option expiring on May 15, 2026, saw 12,516 contracts traded, equating to about 1.3 million shares, suggesting investor expectations of a potential decline in stock price.
- LSB Industries Options Activity: LSB Industries, Inc. recorded an options trading volume of 7,478 contracts, representing approximately 747,800 shares, which is about 98.6% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, highlighting the stock's active trading status.
- High Volume Call Options: For LSB Industries, the $15 strike call option expiring on April 17, 2026, had a trading volume of 2,544 contracts, approximately 254,400 shares, reflecting market optimism regarding the stock's future price increase.
See More
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- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $162 million for the full year 2025, representing a 25% year-over-year increase, with Q4 EBITDA reaching $54 million, up 42% from the previous year, reflecting sustained competitiveness and profitability in the market.
- Robust Market Demand: The industrial business remains strong, particularly with robust demand for ammonium nitrate from copper and gold miners, as Q4 pricing for UAN averaged $320 per ton, a 39% increase year-over-year, with tight domestic supply expected to persist through mid-2026, further driving revenue growth.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite planned turnarounds at the El Dorado and Pryor facilities in 2026, resulting in approximately 60,000 tons of ammonia and 50,000 tons of UAN production loss, management remains confident in ongoing business growth and operational improvements, projecting capital expenditures of around $75 million in 2026 to support future expansion and profitability.
See More
Form 144: LSB Industries (LXU.US) 10% Stakeholder Plans to Sell $72.6 Million in Common Shares
- Stock Sale Announcement: Todd L. Boehly plans to sell 4.89 million shares of LSB Industries' common stock on March 26.
- Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $72.6 million.
See More
LSB Industries Inc: UBS Increases Target Price from $9.75 to $16.5
- UBS Raises Target Price: UBS has increased its target price for a specific stock from $9.75 to $16.50.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects UBS's positive outlook on the stock's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Disrupts Fertilizer Prices
- Fertilizer Price Volatility: The shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is causing immediate volatility in liquid fertilizer prices, as noted by Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander, who believes that despite a rally in fertilizer stocks this month, two producers may have further upside potential.
- Price Increase Metrics: Since late February, the price of U.S. Gulf NOLA urea-ammonium nitrate has surged by 21%, indicating that global fertilizer markets have tightened sharply due to Middle Eastern producers halting production, particularly as the spring planting season commences.
- Rating Adjustments: Jefferies upgraded Nutrien to a buy rating and raised its price target from $74 to $96, suggesting a 21% upside, while also increasing LSB Industries' target from $11 to $15, although it maintained a hold rating on the stock.
- Market Demand Impact: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 27% of global ammonia and 35% of global urea flows, and even if it reopens, normalizing fertilizer trade may take time, especially with high demand during the spring planting season, where logistical and production challenges could keep prices elevated in the short term.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Nitrogen Prices Up
- Nitrogen Price Surge: Barclays analysts indicate that the Middle East conflict could lead to sustained nitrogen price increases through at least the first half of 2026, enhancing profitability for North American producers like CF Industries.
- CF Stock Outperformance: CF Industries' stock has rallied over 20% this month amid escalating conflict, with global urea prices surging and supply chain tightening, making it one of the market's biggest winners, and trading up about 4% in pre-market on Thursday.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Analysts raised CF's price target from $100 to $120 while maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, anticipating that supply chain disruptions will further elevate nitrogen fertilizer costs, benefiting CF.
- Strong Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'extremely bullish', with one user predicting the stock could rise to $152, implying a 36% upside from its last closing price, reflecting optimistic market expectations for CF's future.
See More
Ivanhoe Electric and LSB Industries See Active Options Trading
- Ivanhoe Electric Options Volume: Ivanhoe Electric Inc's options volume reached 21,582 contracts, representing approximately 2.2 million shares, which is 120.2% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating strong market interest in the stock.
- High Volume Put Options: Within Ivanhoe Electric, the $10 strike put option expiring on May 15, 2026, saw 12,516 contracts traded, equating to about 1.3 million shares, suggesting investor expectations of a potential decline in stock price.
- LSB Industries Options Activity: LSB Industries, Inc. recorded an options trading volume of 7,478 contracts, representing approximately 747,800 shares, which is about 98.6% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, highlighting the stock's active trading status.
- High Volume Call Options: For LSB Industries, the $15 strike call option expiring on April 17, 2026, had a trading volume of 2,544 contracts, approximately 254,400 shares, reflecting market optimism regarding the stock's future price increase.
See More
LSB Industries Reports Record Production and EBITDA Growth in Q4 2025
- Safety Record Breakthrough: As of December 31, 2025, LSB Industries achieved a record low 12-month rolling total reportable incident rate of 0.40 incidents per 200,000 work hours, with three out of four sites operating injury-free for the entire year, enhancing employee morale and the company's reputation.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $162 million for the full year 2025, representing a 25% year-over-year increase, with Q4 EBITDA reaching $54 million, up 42% from the previous year, reflecting sustained competitiveness and profitability in the market.
- Robust Market Demand: The industrial business remains strong, particularly with robust demand for ammonium nitrate from copper and gold miners, as Q4 pricing for UAN averaged $320 per ton, a 39% increase year-over-year, with tight domestic supply expected to persist through mid-2026, further driving revenue growth.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite planned turnarounds at the El Dorado and Pryor facilities in 2026, resulting in approximately 60,000 tons of ammonia and 50,000 tons of UAN production loss, management remains confident in ongoing business growth and operational improvements, projecting capital expenditures of around $75 million in 2026 to support future expansion and profitability.
See More
