Stock Market Update: Dow and S&P 500 Futures Rise as Wall Street Anticipates Nvidia Earnings—Attention on MongoDB, nCino, and Snowflake
U.S. Stock Market Performance: U.S. stock futures showed slight gains, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reflecting positive investor sentiment ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.
Federal Reserve Developments: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook plans to file a lawsuit against President Trump to prevent her dismissal, while markets anticipate a high likelihood of interest rate cuts in September.
Sector Performance Insights: The market saw broad-based gains on Tuesday, particularly in the Industrials and Financials sectors, although Consumer Staples lagged behind; durable goods orders fell less than expected.
Earnings Reports and Economic Indicators: Mixed results from recent retail earnings highlight consumer behavior influenced by tariffs, with discount retailers performing better than higher-end ones amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
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- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
- Palantir Stock Potential: Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, Palantir's shares have surged 1,650%, currently priced at $132, with analysts setting a target price of $199, indicating a 51% upside and showcasing its strong growth potential in the AI platform market.
- Nvidia Market Leadership: Nvidia's stock has risen 980% in the same period, currently trading at $183, with a median target price of $250 from analysts, suggesting a 37% upside and highlighting its sustained leadership in AI infrastructure.
- Strong Business Growth: Palantir has accelerated revenue growth for 10 consecutive quarters, achieving a Rule of 40 score of 127% in Q4, reflecting exceptional business fundamentals, with Morgan Stanley analysts calling it the best fundamental story in software.
- Cautious Investor Advice: Despite Palantir's 37% decline from its peak, its high P/E ratio of 205 warrants caution among investors, recommending small positions to mitigate risks if the company fails to meet Wall Street's lofty expectations.
- Current AI Accuracy: Cramer highlighted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's assertion that AI currently operates at about 90% accuracy, which, while impressive, leaves a 10% gap that undermines trust in high-stakes environments, affecting professional adoption.
- AI Hallucination Issues: Cramer shared an anecdote about the AI model Gemini mistakenly claiming he was from Rockport, Massachusetts, illustrating the unreliability of AI in handling basic facts, which diminishes public trust in these technologies.
- Trust Crisis in Professional Fields: Cramer questioned the applicability of current AI models in industries requiring high precision, emphasizing that no major law firm would rely on such technology for real clients, highlighting the limitations of AI in professional settings.
- Future Outlook and Confidence: While Cramer remains optimistic about AI's future, he believes that in the short term (this year or next), the technology will not reach a reliable level, indicating that industries need more time to adapt and build trust in these innovations.
- Stock Surge: As of February 13, Micron Technology (MU) shares have soared 314% over the past year, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth potential, particularly amid surging AI demand.
- Profitability Metrics: Micron's trailing P/E ratio stands at 39, which, while relatively high, remains within a reasonable range for fast-growing tech stocks, indicating investor expectations for future profitability.
- Future Earnings Outlook: With a forward P/E ratio of just 12, significantly lower than Nvidia's 24, Micron presents a more attractive valuation for projected income, potentially drawing more investor interest.
- Strong Financial Performance: Micron reported a net income of $5.2 billion in Q1 of its 2026 fiscal year, nearly tripling last year's figures, and has already sold out its memory capacity for 2026, signaling robust earnings growth ahead.
- Strong Financial Performance: Despite Nvidia's (NVDA) 2% year-to-date stock decline, its latest earnings report indicates accelerating revenue growth in Q3, with strong guidance for Q4, suggesting robust market demand in the AI sector that could drive future sales growth.
- Giant Investment Plans: Tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have announced massive AI investments, with Amazon planning to spend around $200 billion despite only $11.2 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability while potentially boosting Nvidia's sales in the short term.
- In-House Chip Programs Rising: Amazon's Trainium2 AI chip business is generating over $10 billion in annual revenue and is fully subscribed, indicating that competitors are rapidly developing their own chip solutions, which could erode Nvidia's market share, especially as price competition intensifies.
- Valuation Pressure: Nvidia's current P/E ratio stands at 45, with a forward P/E of 24; while the company is experiencing rapid earnings growth, any slowdown in AI chip demand or the emergence of lower-cost alternatives from competitors could pressure Nvidia's pricing power and margins, leading to further stock price declines.










