Stephens Maintains Overweight Rating on Papa John's with $40 Price Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 14 2026
0mins
Stephens keeps an Overweight rating and a $40 price target on Papa John's following today's Reuters report that Papa John's largest franchisee has joined Earth Capital's latest bid to acquire the company. The news is another chapter in the Papa John's acquisition saga, which has helped support the multiple despite ongoing traffic, comp, and repositioning pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Near-term sentiment likely stays constrained given the traffic reset and planned menu simplification headwinds, but the firm remains constructive on the longer recovery arc as refranchising, supply chain savings, and a leaner cost structure create a credible path to margin recovery, the firm added.
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Analyst Views on PZZA
Wall Street analysts forecast PZZA stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 34.650
Low
42.00
Averages
49.14
High
60.00
Current: 34.650
Low
42.00
Averages
49.14
High
60.00
About PZZA
Papa John’s International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and delivery restaurants under the trademark Papa Johns. The Company operates through four segments. Its Domestic Company-owned restaurant segment consists of the operations of all domestic Company-owned restaurants; the North America commissaries segment comprises approximately 11 full-service regional dough production and distribution quality control centers in the United States; the North America franchising segment consists of franchise sales and support activities, and International operations segment principally consists of distribution sales to franchised Papa John’s restaurants located in the United Kingdom and its franchise sales and support activities. The Company operates approximately 6,030 Papa John’s restaurants in operation, consisting of 552 Company-owned and 5,478 franchised restaurants operating in 51 countries and territories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Global Collaboration Debut: Papa Johns teams up with Disney and Pixar for the launch of Toy Story 5, set to hit theaters on June 19, 2026; this marks the first collaboration between the franchise and a pizza brand, aiming to celebrate the globally beloved film series with delicious pizza.
- Limited Edition Products: The campaign introduces Toy Story 5 personal pizzas priced at $9.99, featuring limited-edition collectibles of Woody, Buzz Lightyear, and Jessie, which is expected to attract a large fanbase and enhance brand visibility.
- Marketing Strategy: Papa Johns will roll out the product line across Canada and 42 international markets, promoting it through social media and its app, showcasing its commitment to high-quality ingredients while enhancing consumer engagement.
- Brand Image Enhancement: This collaboration not only highlights Papa Johns' dedication to quality ingredients but also elevates its brand image by associating with the iconic Toy Story franchise, likely attracting more family customers and driving sales growth.
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- Stock Fluctuations: Although Papa John's stock rose over 7% last week and more than 10% over the past week, Saleh emphasized that such acquisition rumors typically surface when the stock price dips to the low $30s, lacking substantial progress.
- Leverage Concerns: Saleh highlighted that Papa John's current debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio stands at approximately 3.5x, leaving little room for a suitor to incur additional debt in a take-private transaction, implying that the acquirer would need to pay the entire purchase price upfront.
- Management Signals: Saleh noted that prior management comments and refranchising activities do not indicate an imminent acquisition, further undermining market confidence in the acquisition rumors.
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- Profit Decline: Adjusted EPS came in at $0.32, missing the anticipated $0.37 by 13.6%, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability amid a highly competitive landscape.
- Same-Store Sales Drop: Same-store sales fell 3.9% year-over-year, compared to a 1.3% decline in the same quarter last year, underscoring significant challenges in customer attraction exacerbated by severe weather and promotional pressures.
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- Global Collaboration Debut: Papa Johns teams up with Disney and Pixar for the launch of Toy Story 5, set to hit theaters on June 19, 2026; this marks the first collaboration between the franchise and a pizza brand, aiming to celebrate the globally beloved film series with delicious pizza.
- Limited Edition Products: The campaign introduces Toy Story 5 personal pizzas priced at $9.99, featuring limited-edition collectibles of Woody, Buzz Lightyear, and Jessie, which is expected to attract a large fanbase and enhance brand visibility.
- Marketing Strategy: Papa Johns will roll out the product line across Canada and 42 international markets, promoting it through social media and its app, showcasing its commitment to high-quality ingredients while enhancing consumer engagement.
- Brand Image Enhancement: This collaboration not only highlights Papa Johns' dedication to quality ingredients but also elevates its brand image by associating with the iconic Toy Story franchise, likely attracting more family customers and driving sales growth.
See More
Analyst Questions Credibility of Papa John's Acquisition Bid
- Acquisition Doubts: BTIG analyst Peter Saleh expressed skepticism regarding the latest acquisition bid for Papa John's International (PZZA), noting that this marks the second time this year and the fifth or sixth similar report in the past 18 months, indicating a pattern of speculative headlines.
- Stock Fluctuations: Although Papa John's stock rose over 7% last week and more than 10% over the past week, Saleh emphasized that such acquisition rumors typically surface when the stock price dips to the low $30s, lacking substantial progress.
- Leverage Concerns: Saleh highlighted that Papa John's current debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio stands at approximately 3.5x, leaving little room for a suitor to incur additional debt in a take-private transaction, implying that the acquirer would need to pay the entire purchase price upfront.
- Management Signals: Saleh noted that prior management comments and refranchising activities do not indicate an imminent acquisition, further undermining market confidence in the acquisition rumors.
See More
Papa John's Q1 Results Fall Short of Expectations
- Underperformance: Papa John's reported Q1 revenue of $478.6 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $485.5 million, reflecting a 7.7% year-over-year decline that highlights challenges in order volumes and new customer acquisition in North America.
- Profit Decline: Adjusted EPS came in at $0.32, missing the anticipated $0.37 by 13.6%, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability amid a highly competitive landscape.
- Same-Store Sales Drop: Same-store sales fell 3.9% year-over-year, compared to a 1.3% decline in the same quarter last year, underscoring significant challenges in customer attraction exacerbated by severe weather and promotional pressures.
- International Market Bright Spot: Despite struggles in North America, international markets remained a relative bright spot, suggesting potential growth opportunities in Papa John's global expansion strategy that could drive future performance.
See More
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- Microsoft Shares Rise: Microsoft's stock rose nearly 4% following Bill Ackman's disclosure of accumulating shares, as he finds the company's valuation to be 'highly compelling' after its second-quarter earnings report.
- ServiceNow Partnership: ServiceNow's stock increased nearly 5% after announcing a multiyear partnership with Experian to develop autonomous AI agents, which is expected to enhance their competitive edge in the AI market.
- Ford Stock Decline: Ford's shares fell about 7% after a previous surge of over 20%, with analysts noting that recent gains were driven more by enthusiasm around battery storage ambitions than by solid fundamentals.
- Figma Earnings Beat: Figma's stock surged nearly 9% after reporting first-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $333 million, exceeding analyst expectations of 6 cents per share, indicating strong market demand.
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- Semiconductor Sector Decline: The iShares Semiconductor ETF is poised to end a six-week winning streak, with Marvell and Intel both down 4%, while ASML and Arm dropped over 3.5%, reflecting diminished investor confidence in the industry.
- Figma Stock Surge: Figma's first-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $333 million surpassed analyst expectations of 6 cents and $313 million, leading to a nearly 9% increase in stock price, showcasing strong market demand for its services.
- Magnum Ice Cream Acquisition Interest: Magnum Ice Cream shares jumped over 17% following reports that firms like Blackstone and CD&R are considering a bid, with potential buyers waiting for summer sales data before proceeding, indicating optimism about the company's growth prospects.
See More
Figma Surpasses Q1 Expectations, Stock Rises
- Figma's Strong Performance: Figma reported a 46% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 to $333.4 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.10, both exceeding Wall Street expectations, and it forecasts Q2 revenue of $348 million to $350 million while raising its full-year outlook to $1.42 billion to $1.43 billion, indicating robust market demand and widespread adoption of its AI products.
- Potential Acquisition for Papa John's: Shares of Papa John's rose 5% following news that its largest franchisee, Nadeem Bajwa, plans to support Irth Capital in a takeover bid, with Bajwa controlling about 10% of domestic stores and expected to make a significant investment in the $47-per-share offer, although no deal is guaranteed.
- Nu Holdings' Disappointing Results: Nu Holdings' stock fell 5% after posting Q1 earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street estimates, with purchase volume at $39.5 billion, yet the addition of 4 million customers brought its global total to over 135 million, showcasing growth potential in its customer base.
- TSMC's Share Sale: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's shares slipped 3% as it plans to sell approximately 152 million shares of Vanguard International Semiconductor, reducing its stake from 27.1% to 19%, a move aimed at focusing resources on core operations while maintaining its strategic partnership with Vanguard.
See More
