SpaceX IPO Outlook and Declining ARPU Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 10 hours ago
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Massive IPO Potential: SpaceX is set to launch its IPO on June 12, potentially raising up to $75 billion, which could value the company between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history and drawing significant investor interest.
- Declining ARPU Trend: According to SpaceX's S-1 filing, the average revenue per user (ARPU) for Starlink is projected to drop from $99 in 2023 to $66 by 2026, a 33% decline, which may impact overall revenue growth for the company.
- Significant Customer Growth: Despite the declining ARPU, Starlink's customer base surged by 347%, increasing from 2.3 million in 2023 to 10.3 million currently, showcasing SpaceX's strong ability to attract new customers, with a total addressable market estimated at $1.6 trillion.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: SpaceX's connectivity segment saw a 120% increase in operating income to $4.4 billion in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 86% to $7.1 billion, indicating substantial progress in operational efficiency despite the ARPU decline.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 440.360
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 440.360
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Service Expansion Plan: The service will be available to select public passengers in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, with plans to expand to San Diego, Las Vegas, and Denver this summer, further broadening its user base and market coverage.
- Technological Innovation: The Ojai model utilizes the sixth-generation Waymo Driver system, equipped with improved lidar and audio receivers that can better detect surroundings in adverse weather conditions, enhancing safety and user experience.
- Safety Issue Response: Waymo recently issued a voluntary recall of approximately 3,800 robotaxis to address software issues, demonstrating the company's commitment to safety; despite facing challenges, it remains focused on improving service quality and user trust.
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- Service Expansion Plan: Waymo plans to offer rides in Ojai robotaxis to select customers in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, with an expected expansion to San Diego, Las Vegas, and Denver this summer, further broadening its market coverage.
- Technological Innovation: The Ojai model utilizes the sixth-generation Waymo Driver system, which enhances low-light detection capabilities, and integrates new hardware and software to improve safety in adverse weather conditions.
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See More
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- Rivian's Growth Potential: Rivian, valued at $18 billion, may have more upside than Tesla despite lower production capacity; its $1.25 billion investment deal with Uber indicates strong interest in its upcoming R2 SUV for robotaxi fleets.
- Advantages of EVs: Electric vehicles are better suited for robotaxi operations due to lower maintenance and operating costs, attracting potential operators and accelerating the growth of the EV market.
See More
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- Rise of Robotaxis: A McKinsey report indicates that robotaxis are expected to roll out on a large scale by 2030, becoming the first commercial application, with electric vehicles being better suited for this market due to lower maintenance costs and advanced technology.
- Tesla's Leading Position: Tesla currently has a market valuation of $1.3 trillion, heavily reliant on its robotaxi growth potential, and has initiated pilot programs in several U.S. cities, with widespread deployment expected by the end of the year.
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See More
