SpaceX IPO Could Impact Tesla Stock Valuation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: Fool
- SpaceX IPO Outlook: SpaceX is expected to go public this summer with a valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion, which analysts deem justifiable due to its robust Starlink satellite business and recurring revenue, thus attracting significant investor interest.
- Tesla's Challenges: Tesla, currently valued at $1.3 trillion, remains one of the world's most valuable companies, yet its high price-to-earnings ratio of 320 indicates pressure on profitability, potentially leading investors to shift towards the more attractive SpaceX.
- Increased Market Competition: Tesla's revenue declined by 3% in 2025, raising concerns about future earnings growth as competition in the EV market intensifies, which could motivate investors to sell Tesla shares in favor of SpaceX's potential.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: With the SpaceX IPO approaching, investor confidence in Tesla may wane, especially after Tesla fell short of delivery expectations in the first quarter, potentially exacerbating selling pressure on Tesla stock.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 388.900
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 388.900
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Profitability Impact: The company's automotive revenue fell by 10% in 2025, leading to a 3% decline in total revenue, while earnings per share crashed by 47% due to price cuts aimed at attracting customers, highlighting the pressure on profitability amid fierce competition.
- First Quarter Delivery Data: In Q1 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs, below Wall Street's estimate of 370,000, yet representing a 6% year-over-year increase, which could bolster investor confidence if the subsequent earnings report reflects overall revenue growth.
- Future Product Strategy: Musk plans to launch the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot by the end of 2026, which may generate revenue in the long term, but could negatively impact short-term financial results, necessitating close monitoring of future developments.
See More
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- Hiring Initiative: Tesla has posted job openings on its website, seeking to hire multiple senior process engineers and other roles for its Terafab AI chip factory in Taiwan, indicating a significant expansion in semiconductor production.
- Factory Scale: The company describes Terafab as an unprecedented vertically integrated semiconductor factory that will house logic, memory, packaging, testing, and lithography mask production, optimized for rapid iteration and maximum compute density per square foot.
- Technical Focus: The roles will involve building processes across three distinct chip families, including edge-inference processors, space-hardened chips for orbital satellites, and high-bandwidth memory, showcasing Tesla's ambition in the high-end semiconductor sector.
- Manufacturing Processes: The job descriptions reference 2nm-class chip dimensions and multiple core front-end fabrication steps such as lithography, etching, thin films, and chemical mechanical planarization, indicating Tesla's forward-looking approach to chip manufacturing technology.
See More
Tesla Stock Rebounds, Ending Eight-Week Decline
- Stock Rebound: Tesla's stock closed at $400.62 on Friday, up 3.01%, marking the end of an eight-week losing streak, which indicates a gradual restoration of investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Trading volume reached 88.9 million shares on Friday, approximately 41% above the three-month average of 62.9 million shares, suggesting a significant increase in market interest in Tesla, potentially foreshadowing greater volatility ahead of its earnings report.
- Rising EV Demand: The rebound in Tesla's stock is closely linked to renewed enthusiasm for electric vehicles driven by rising oil prices due to the war in Iran, which may lay the groundwork for future sales growth for the company.
- Earnings Report Outlook: Investors are keenly awaiting the April 22 earnings report, particularly for updates on Tesla's robotaxi program and AI chip production, as these factors are crucial for improving market sentiment and driving the stock price higher.
See More
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- Stock Rebound: Tesla's stock closed at $400.62 on Friday, marking a 3.01% increase and ending an eight-week losing streak, indicating a gradual restoration of investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Trading volume reached 88.9 million shares on Friday, approximately 41% above the three-month average of 62.9 million shares, suggesting a significant increase in market interest in Tesla, potentially signaling greater volatility ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
- EV Market Outlook: Rising oil prices linked to the war in Iran have enhanced the relative appeal of electric vehicles, and Tesla's stock rebound reflects investor optimism regarding the EV market, especially in light of the forthcoming earnings report.
- Production and Delivery Data: Tesla's Q1 production and delivery update earlier this month revealed over 358,000 units delivered, which disappointed investors; however, progress in the company's robotaxi program and AI chip production will be key focal points for investors moving forward.
See More
Tesla's Future Prospects Amid Automotive Stagnation
- Automotive Stagnation: Tesla's automotive deliveries over the past 12 months have declined from 2023, resulting in a drop in automotive revenue from $82.4 billion to $69.5 billion, indicating over two years of stagnation that adversely affects the company's overall financial performance.
- Lack of Innovation: Since the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla has shown a lack of innovation in its automotive offerings, with the Cybertruck failing to generate significant customer demand, potentially leading to substantial losses for the company.
- New Project Outlook: Tesla is pivoting towards the humanoid robot project Optimus and the TerraFab semiconductor initiative, but the costs and technical challenges associated with these ambitious projects are immense, making it unlikely for them to yield short-term benefits.
- Valuation Risks: With a current market cap of $1.14 trillion and a P/E ratio of 339, Tesla's stock is priced for significant growth, yet the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market raises concerns about a potential 90% decline in stock price if growth fails to materialize.
See More
Tesla Faces Business Stagnation and Overvaluation Concerns
- Automotive Business Stagnation: Tesla's automotive deliveries have declined over the past 12 months, resulting in a drop in automotive revenue from $82.4 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion in 2025, indicating a lack of innovation since the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y, which could impact future market competitiveness.
- New Project Risks: Tesla is pivoting towards the humanoid robot Optimus and the TerraFab semiconductor project; however, these ambitious plans lack tangible results and require massive investments, making their short-term positive impact on the company's financials nearly negligible and potentially eroding investor confidence.
- Overvaluation Concerns: With a market cap of $1.14 trillion and a P/E ratio of 339, Tesla's stock is priced for growth despite a bleak outlook for its automotive business in a highly competitive market, raising concerns that the stock could fall back to peer levels, risking a decline of 90% or more.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While Tesla has seen $13 billion in revenue growth in the energy storage sector, its overall business still heavily relies on automotive sales, and if new projects fail to materialize successfully within the next five years, investors may question the value of holding Tesla stock.
See More
