SpaceX IPO Approaches with $1.77 Trillion Valuation Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- IPO Valuation Target: SpaceX aims for a $1.77 trillion valuation in its IPO, potentially raising up to $75 billion in new capital, which will be swiftly deployed to capture its $28.5 trillion total addressable market.
- Market Analysis Divergence: Despite the vast potential market, a Morningstar report indicates that the company's actual worth is only $780 billion, less than half of its top valuation, suggesting investors should exercise caution during the IPO.
- Growth Opportunity Outlook: According to the latest IPO prospectus, $26.5 trillion of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion market is attributed to AI, indicating a strategic pivot towards AI as a primary focus over the next five years.
- AI Investment Risks: While SpaceX plans significant investments in its Grok AI engine and expanding data center capabilities, Morningstar analysts caution that this division is currently unprofitable and faces fierce competition from other major tech firms.
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Analyst Views on MORN
Wall Street analysts forecast MORN stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 186.060
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
Current: 186.060
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
About MORN
Morningstar, Inc. is a provider of independent investment insights. The Company's segments include Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The Morningstar Direct Platform provides investors with data, research and insights, and investment analysis to empower investment decision-making. The PitchBook provides investors with access to data, research, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) enabled software across private capital markets, including venture capital, private equity, private credit, bank loans, and mergers & acquisitions (M&A). Morningstar Credit provides investors with credit ratings, research, data, and credit analytics solutions. Morningstar Wealth provides investment products, investor tools, and an advisor platform powered by research and data. The Morningstar Retirement offers products designed to help individuals reach retirement goals.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Regulatory Concerns: Senator Warren sent a letter to Nasdaq, S&P Dow Jones, and other index firms questioning whether rule changes influenced by lobbying from Musk and others could allow SpaceX to enter indexes without adequate investor protections, potentially destabilizing markets.
- Market Risks: She highlighted that fast-tracking newly listed companies into top indexes could pose significant risks to American investors, particularly retirees who rely on index funds for their savings, jeopardizing their financial security.
- SpaceX IPO Outlook: SpaceX is set to begin trading on Friday with a valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings in history, which could trigger market volatility and increase investor anxiety.
- SEC Investigation Call: Warren urged the SEC to delay SpaceX's offering, arguing that the agency has not conducted due diligence in protecting investors and maintaining market integrity, which could lead to greater market risks.
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- Financial Concerns: Despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $14 billion in 2024, the company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 after a net income of $791 million in 2024, indicating severe profitability issues.
- Investor Caution: Warren Buffett's decision to abstain from the IPO due to SpaceX's complex financials and high valuation underscores the risks associated with its unclear business model, particularly given its numerous subsidiaries.
- Intensifying Competition: While SpaceX currently leads in the launch sector, it faces increasing competition from Rocket Lab and Blue Origin, suggesting that its substantial market share may be threatened by future competitive pressures.
See More
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- IPO Valuation Raises Concerns: SpaceX plans to go public at $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion; however, analysts believe this valuation is inflated, estimating it at only $780 billion, indicating skepticism about its future profitability.
- Poor Financial Performance: While revenue reached $18.7 billion in 2025, up from $14 billion in 2024, the company's net loss surged from $791 million in 2024 to $4.9 billion, highlighting the high-risk nature of its business model.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: SpaceX's leading position in the launch market is challenged by competitors like Rocket Lab and Blue Origin, and its capital-intensive business model raises investor concerns about future profitability.
- Buffett's Investment Strategy: Warren Buffett opts out of the IPO due to SpaceX's financial issues and high valuation, preferring to invest in profitable companies like Alphabet to mitigate risk while still gaining exposure to potential upside.
See More
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- IPO Valuation Target: SpaceX plans to go public on June 12, aiming to raise $75 billion with a target valuation of $1.77 trillion, despite experts questioning this valuation, as Morningstar estimates its true value at only $780 billion, indicating skepticism in the market.
- Market Opportunity Disclosure: In its recent IPO prospectus, SpaceX claims a quantifiable total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion related to artificial intelligence, although this segment is still in its early stages and unprofitable, highlighting its future growth potential.
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- Market Opportunity Analysis: SpaceX claims a quantifiable total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion linked to artificial intelligence, although this segment is still in its early stages and unprofitable, indicating significant uncertainty about future growth potential.
- Profitability of Starlink: SpaceX's Starlink satellite network is estimated to represent a $1.6 trillion market opportunity, with $870 billion from satellite broadband and $740 billion from satellite-to-mobile connectivity, already profitable and adding 4 million new customers last year, showcasing strong growth momentum.
- Short-term Financial Impact: While SpaceX's overall valuation reaches $1.77 trillion, the profitability of Starlink could significantly influence the company's financials over the next 12 months, especially if the company needs to sell stock to offset financial losses.
See More
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- Regulatory Concerns: Senator Warren sent a letter to Nasdaq, S&P Dow Jones, and other index firms questioning whether rule changes influenced by lobbying from Musk and others could allow SpaceX to enter indexes without adequate investor protections, potentially destabilizing markets.
- Market Risks: She highlighted that fast-tracking newly listed companies into top indexes could pose significant risks to American investors, particularly retirees who rely on index funds for their savings, jeopardizing their financial security.
- SpaceX IPO Outlook: SpaceX is set to begin trading on Friday with a valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings in history, which could trigger market volatility and increase investor anxiety.
- SEC Investigation Call: Warren urged the SEC to delay SpaceX's offering, arguing that the agency has not conducted due diligence in protecting investors and maintaining market integrity, which could lead to greater market risks.
See More
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- Award Recognition: PitchBook was awarded the Performance Impact Award at Lattice's 2026 People Success Awards, highlighting the direct impact of its talent and performance process redesign on business performance and its strategic focus on employee development and outcomes.
- Feedback Culture Improvement: By fostering a culture of continuous, high-quality feedback, PitchBook increased its performance review completion rates from 65% to over 90% in a single quarter, with 80% of employees reporting they receive useful feedback from their managers, significantly enhancing employee experience and performance.
- Employee Growth: PitchBook now boasts over 3,000 employees across global offices in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, London, and Singapore, showcasing its comprehensive coverage of private and public markets, which further strengthens its competitive position in the industry.
- Commitment to Investment: The award reflects PitchBook's long-term commitment to investing in its people, as the company continues to grow and aims to provide meaningful feedback and tools to support employee development and overall organizational success.
See More
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- IPO Valuation: SpaceX plans to debut at $135 per share, leading to a staggering $1.77 trillion valuation, while Morningstar analysts suggest a more realistic valuation of $780 billion, highlighting significant market valuation discrepancies.
- Financial Concerns: Despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $14 billion in 2024, the company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 after a net income of $791 million in 2024, indicating severe profitability issues.
- Investor Caution: Warren Buffett's decision to abstain from the IPO due to SpaceX's complex financials and high valuation underscores the risks associated with its unclear business model, particularly given its numerous subsidiaries.
- Intensifying Competition: While SpaceX currently leads in the launch sector, it faces increasing competition from Rocket Lab and Blue Origin, suggesting that its substantial market share may be threatened by future competitive pressures.
See More
SpaceX Set to Go Public with $1.77 Trillion Valuation
- IPO Valuation Raises Concerns: SpaceX plans to go public at $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion; however, analysts believe this valuation is inflated, estimating it at only $780 billion, indicating skepticism about its future profitability.
- Poor Financial Performance: While revenue reached $18.7 billion in 2025, up from $14 billion in 2024, the company's net loss surged from $791 million in 2024 to $4.9 billion, highlighting the high-risk nature of its business model.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: SpaceX's leading position in the launch market is challenged by competitors like Rocket Lab and Blue Origin, and its capital-intensive business model raises investor concerns about future profitability.
- Buffett's Investment Strategy: Warren Buffett opts out of the IPO due to SpaceX's financial issues and high valuation, preferring to invest in profitable companies like Alphabet to mitigate risk while still gaining exposure to potential upside.
See More
SpaceX Plans IPO on June 12 with $75 Billion Target
- IPO Valuation Target: SpaceX plans to go public on June 12, aiming to raise $75 billion with a target valuation of $1.77 trillion, despite experts questioning this valuation, as Morningstar estimates its true value at only $780 billion, indicating skepticism in the market.
- Market Opportunity Disclosure: In its recent IPO prospectus, SpaceX claims a quantifiable total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion related to artificial intelligence, although this segment is still in its early stages and unprofitable, highlighting its future growth potential.
- Starlink Profitability: SpaceX's Starlink satellite network represents a $1.6 trillion market opportunity, having added over 4 million new customers last year and expanded to 35 countries, with this segment already profitable, expected to be the main source of profit in the near term.
- Financial Pressure and Growth Potential: Despite facing financial losses and capital expenditure pressures, Starlink's profitability will rise in relative value, potentially impacting the company's stock price significantly over the next 12 months; however, even capturing the entire Starlink market would not justify its $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.
See More
SpaceX Plans IPO with Target Valuation of $1.77 Trillion
- IPO Plans and Valuation: SpaceX is set to go public on June 12, aiming to raise over $75 billion with a target valuation of $1.77 trillion, despite Morningstar's assertion that this valuation is 'significantly overvalued' at around $780 billion, highlighting market skepticism regarding its worth.
- Market Opportunity Analysis: SpaceX claims a quantifiable total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion linked to artificial intelligence, although this segment is still in its early stages and unprofitable, indicating significant uncertainty about future growth potential.
- Profitability of Starlink: SpaceX's Starlink satellite network is estimated to represent a $1.6 trillion market opportunity, with $870 billion from satellite broadband and $740 billion from satellite-to-mobile connectivity, already profitable and adding 4 million new customers last year, showcasing strong growth momentum.
- Short-term Financial Impact: While SpaceX's overall valuation reaches $1.77 trillion, the profitability of Starlink could significantly influence the company's financials over the next 12 months, especially if the company needs to sell stock to offset financial losses.
See More
