Space Stocks Face Resistance in 2026 Amid SpaceX IPO Hype
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ASTS?
Source: Benzinga
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX's potential IPO in 2026, valued at $1.5 trillion, is drawing investor attention while simultaneously causing capital outflows from other space companies, indicating a strong market preference for SpaceX.
- Capital Rotation: As investors shift funds from established public players to SpaceX, many public peers have experienced significant double-digit declines over the past 30 days, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards emerging space companies.
- Divergent Stock Performance: While AST SpaceMobile has shown resilience due to its satellite-to-phone milestones, hardware and launch providers like Rocket Lab and Sidus Space have suffered greater losses, highlighting varying levels of market confidence among different companies.
- Challenges for Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab is racing to deploy its reusable Neutron rocket, but remains at a disadvantage until it transitions from the expendable Electron model, impacting its competitive position in the market.
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Analyst Views on ASTS
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTS is 74.26 USD with a low forecast of 43.00 USD and a high forecast of 100.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 103.500
Low
43.00
Averages
74.26
High
100.00
Current: 103.500
Low
43.00
Averages
74.26
High
100.00
About ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AST SpaceMobile Secures Defense Contract, Stock Rises
- Contract Approval: AST SpaceMobile has been awarded a SHIELD contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, encompassing a broad range of work areas that allows for rapid delivery of innovative capabilities, marking the company's entry into the defense sector and potentially providing new revenue streams for future growth.
- Stock Performance: In January, AST's stock surged by 53%, despite facing competitive threats from Blue Origin, reflecting bullish sentiment in the satellite industry and investor confidence in the company's future potential.
- Launch Plans: AST announced that its BlueBird 7 satellite is scheduled for launch in late February, with plans to have 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of the year, further enhancing its market competitiveness and service capabilities.
- Market Challenges: Despite a market cap of approximately $40 billion, AST remains a high-risk stock that must demonstrate its ability to expand beyond broadband services to achieve significant stock price appreciation.
See More
Space Stocks Face Resistance in 2026 Amid SpaceX IPO Hype
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX's potential IPO in 2026, valued at $1.5 trillion, is drawing investor attention while simultaneously causing capital outflows from other space companies, indicating a strong market preference for SpaceX.
- Capital Rotation: As investors shift funds from established public players to SpaceX, many public peers have experienced significant double-digit declines over the past 30 days, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards emerging space companies.
- Divergent Stock Performance: While AST SpaceMobile has shown resilience due to its satellite-to-phone milestones, hardware and launch providers like Rocket Lab and Sidus Space have suffered greater losses, highlighting varying levels of market confidence among different companies.
- Challenges for Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab is racing to deploy its reusable Neutron rocket, but remains at a disadvantage until it transitions from the expendable Electron model, impacting its competitive position in the market.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Faces Execution Risks Amid Ambitious Plans
- Significant Market Opportunity: AST SpaceMobile aims to develop the world's first space-based mobile broadband network targeting 3.5 billion people, with a market opportunity exceeding $1.1 trillion; however, the execution risk from technological demonstration to commercialization is substantial.
- Challenging Financials: As of Q3 2025, AST reported only $18.5 million in annual revenue against an operating loss of $274.2 million, highlighting the challenges of early-stage commercialization, with a diluted loss per share of $1.29, necessitating cautious investor evaluation.
- Critical Execution Milestones: The company plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, with any launch failure potentially delaying the project; additionally, the current experimental licenses have not received full authorization from the FCC, increasing regulatory risks.
- Dilution Risks: Since August 2024, AST's share count has expanded from 148.5 million to approximately 272 million, posing significant dilution threats to early investors, and capital-intensive satellite launches may force the company to seek additional funding.
See More
SpaceX's Acquisition of xAI Triggers Market Volatility
- Acquisition Announcement: SpaceX revealed its acquisition of Elon Musk's AI startup xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion and expected share pricing at $526.59, generating significant market interest.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Following the acquisition news, shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell approximately 15% on Wednesday, indicating mixed market reactions despite a rally on Tuesday.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', with message volume increasing from 'low' to 'normal', reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future performance.
- Congressional Decision Impact: Earlier this week, Congress killed a plan to return samples from the Mars Perseverance Rover, which Rocket Lab had aimed to complete by 2031, removing a potential $4 billion contract opportunity and exacerbating RKLB's market volatility.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Shares Drop 15.01% Amid Market Decline
- Stock Performance: AST SpaceMobile shares fell 15.01% to $98.38 on Wednesday, making it one of the weakest performers of the day, reflecting the broader market downturn with the Nasdaq down 2.19%.
- Long-Term Trend Analysis: Despite the recent pullback, ASTS is trading 32.5% above its 100-day simple moving average, indicating a strong long-term growth trend with a 330.92% increase over the past 12 months.
- Technical Indicator Insights: The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.65, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD is below its signal line, suggesting bearish pressure on the stock, prompting traders to remain cautious.
- Earnings Expectations: Investors are looking forward to the earnings report scheduled for March 2, 2026, with an estimated loss of 19 cents per share and revenue forecasted at $39.03 million, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year.
See More
Pomerantz LLP Investigates Claims on Behalf of AST SpaceMobile Investors
- Securities Fraud Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. investors, focusing on whether the company and its executives have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, which could undermine investor confidence and the company's reputation.
- Rating Downgrade Impact: On January 7, 2026, Scotiabank downgraded AST to Sell, citing significant competition from SpaceX's Starlink, slow customer adoption, and delays in satellite launches, raising concerns about the company's future profitability and market position.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the downgrade, AST's stock price fell by $11.76, or 12.06%, closing at $85.73 per share, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's prospects and operational challenges.
- Legal Firm Background: Pomerantz LLP, a premier firm in corporate and securities class litigation with over 85 years of experience, emphasizes its commitment to fighting for the rights of victims of securities fraud, indicating that this investigation could lead to broader legal implications affecting AST's operations and financial health.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Secures Defense Contract, Stock Rises
- Contract Approval: AST SpaceMobile has been awarded a SHIELD contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, encompassing a broad range of work areas that allows for rapid delivery of innovative capabilities, marking the company's entry into the defense sector and potentially providing new revenue streams for future growth.
- Stock Performance: In January, AST's stock surged by 53%, despite facing competitive threats from Blue Origin, reflecting bullish sentiment in the satellite industry and investor confidence in the company's future potential.
- Launch Plans: AST announced that its BlueBird 7 satellite is scheduled for launch in late February, with plans to have 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of the year, further enhancing its market competitiveness and service capabilities.
- Market Challenges: Despite a market cap of approximately $40 billion, AST remains a high-risk stock that must demonstrate its ability to expand beyond broadband services to achieve significant stock price appreciation.
See More
Space Stocks Face Resistance in 2026 Amid SpaceX IPO Hype
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX's potential IPO in 2026, valued at $1.5 trillion, is drawing investor attention while simultaneously causing capital outflows from other space companies, indicating a strong market preference for SpaceX.
- Capital Rotation: As investors shift funds from established public players to SpaceX, many public peers have experienced significant double-digit declines over the past 30 days, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards emerging space companies.
- Divergent Stock Performance: While AST SpaceMobile has shown resilience due to its satellite-to-phone milestones, hardware and launch providers like Rocket Lab and Sidus Space have suffered greater losses, highlighting varying levels of market confidence among different companies.
- Challenges for Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab is racing to deploy its reusable Neutron rocket, but remains at a disadvantage until it transitions from the expendable Electron model, impacting its competitive position in the market.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Faces Execution Risks Amid Ambitious Plans
- Significant Market Opportunity: AST SpaceMobile aims to develop the world's first space-based mobile broadband network targeting 3.5 billion people, with a market opportunity exceeding $1.1 trillion; however, the execution risk from technological demonstration to commercialization is substantial.
- Challenging Financials: As of Q3 2025, AST reported only $18.5 million in annual revenue against an operating loss of $274.2 million, highlighting the challenges of early-stage commercialization, with a diluted loss per share of $1.29, necessitating cautious investor evaluation.
- Critical Execution Milestones: The company plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, with any launch failure potentially delaying the project; additionally, the current experimental licenses have not received full authorization from the FCC, increasing regulatory risks.
- Dilution Risks: Since August 2024, AST's share count has expanded from 148.5 million to approximately 272 million, posing significant dilution threats to early investors, and capital-intensive satellite launches may force the company to seek additional funding.
See More
SpaceX's Acquisition of xAI Triggers Market Volatility
- Acquisition Announcement: SpaceX revealed its acquisition of Elon Musk's AI startup xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion and expected share pricing at $526.59, generating significant market interest.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Following the acquisition news, shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell approximately 15% on Wednesday, indicating mixed market reactions despite a rally on Tuesday.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', with message volume increasing from 'low' to 'normal', reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future performance.
- Congressional Decision Impact: Earlier this week, Congress killed a plan to return samples from the Mars Perseverance Rover, which Rocket Lab had aimed to complete by 2031, removing a potential $4 billion contract opportunity and exacerbating RKLB's market volatility.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Shares Drop 15.01% Amid Market Decline
- Stock Performance: AST SpaceMobile shares fell 15.01% to $98.38 on Wednesday, making it one of the weakest performers of the day, reflecting the broader market downturn with the Nasdaq down 2.19%.
- Long-Term Trend Analysis: Despite the recent pullback, ASTS is trading 32.5% above its 100-day simple moving average, indicating a strong long-term growth trend with a 330.92% increase over the past 12 months.
- Technical Indicator Insights: The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.65, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD is below its signal line, suggesting bearish pressure on the stock, prompting traders to remain cautious.
- Earnings Expectations: Investors are looking forward to the earnings report scheduled for March 2, 2026, with an estimated loss of 19 cents per share and revenue forecasted at $39.03 million, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year.
See More
Pomerantz LLP Investigates Claims on Behalf of AST SpaceMobile Investors
- Securities Fraud Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. investors, focusing on whether the company and its executives have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, which could undermine investor confidence and the company's reputation.
- Rating Downgrade Impact: On January 7, 2026, Scotiabank downgraded AST to Sell, citing significant competition from SpaceX's Starlink, slow customer adoption, and delays in satellite launches, raising concerns about the company's future profitability and market position.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the downgrade, AST's stock price fell by $11.76, or 12.06%, closing at $85.73 per share, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's prospects and operational challenges.
- Legal Firm Background: Pomerantz LLP, a premier firm in corporate and securities class litigation with over 85 years of experience, emphasizes its commitment to fighting for the rights of victims of securities fraud, indicating that this investigation could lead to broader legal implications affecting AST's operations and financial health.
See More
