Should Netflix Replace Tesla in "Mag 7"? ETFs in Focus
Tesla's Earnings and Market Position: Tesla experienced a significant stock surge of 23% following its third-quarter earnings report, which showed a 17% profit increase. However, analysts express caution regarding its long-term viability among tech giants due to concerns about overhyped fundamentals and declining market share.
Netflix as a Potential Replacement: Netflix has emerged as a strong contender to replace Tesla in the "Magnificent Seven" tech group, boasting impressive earnings, subscriber growth, and free cash flow improvements, with a current average brokerage recommendation indicating a favorable outlook for the stock.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on MSFT
About MSFT
About the author

- Funding Exceeds Expectations: Anthropic successfully raised $30 billion in its latest Series G funding round, achieving a valuation of $380 billion, which underscores the strong market demand for its AI products and solidifies its leadership position in enterprise AI.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company's revenue run rate has reached $14 billion, growing more than tenfold over the past three years, indicating a substantial increase in market acceptance and usage of its products, particularly among enterprise clients.
- Surge in Claude Code Demand: Claude Code's revenue run rate now exceeds $2.5 billion, having doubled since the start of the year, with business subscriptions quadrupling since early 2026, reflecting deepening reliance on the tool by enterprises.
- Potential IPO Plans: Anthropic is reportedly working with advisors in preparation for a potential initial public offering later this year, signaling the company's confidence in future growth and its intention to leverage capital markets for further business expansion.
- CPI Report Impact: The January CPI report is set to be released at 8:30 AM EST, with markets assessing whether inflation is cooling enough to justify future rate cuts, which could lead to volatility in bond yields and the US dollar, subsequently affecting equity performance.
- SPY Trading Dynamics: SPY is currently trading around 680.50, and if the data is favorable, it could quickly push to 682.25, with sustained strength potentially challenging 684.00; conversely, a drop below 680.50 may test 678.75, indicating heightened market volatility.
- Tech Stock Reactions: QQQ is near the psychologically significant level of 600.00, and if it breaks above, it could move towards 603.00 and 605.50; however, a decisive break below 600.00 may lead to a decline towards 597.50, with tech stocks being particularly sensitive to rate changes, increasing volatility.
- Individual Stock Expectations: Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are trading at 261.50 and 401.50 respectively, and if CPI data supports, they may rise to 263.25 and 404.00; otherwise, they could test 259.75 and 398.75, with market sentiment directly influencing individual stock performance.
- Surging Capital Expenditure: Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are projected to spend $700 billion on AI this year, surpassing the GDP of countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel, indicating a massive commitment to AI investments.
- Market Anxiety: Concerns over the scale of AI spending and potential returns led to a $1 trillion drop in Big Tech market caps last week, and despite a recovery this week, investor confidence in future spending plans remains fragile.
- Increased Borrowing Risks: A UBS report highlights that this year's capex from hyperscalers will consume nearly 100% of operational cash flow, compared to a 10-year average of 40%, raising financial risk for these companies.
- Uncertain Payback Periods: Analysts emphasize that hyperscalers need to achieve significant returns on investment before 2030, but the timelines for these returns remain unclear, potentially causing investor reluctance towards further capex increases.
- Market Rebound Expectations: JPMorgan believes that while the market's outlook on AI disruption in the software sector is overly pessimistic, certain software companies are demonstrating greater resilience, potentially providing rebound opportunities for investors, especially given the current overly bearish sentiment.
- Extreme Price Volatility: Analysts point out that the extreme price action in software stocks has led to unrealistic expectations regarding AI disruption, which may prompt a rotation back into higher-quality companies, thereby improving portfolio performance.
- AI Profitability Gains: Companies in the S&P 500 that have adopted AI have seen net margins expand by approximately 2 to 3 percentage points more than their peers, indicating that AI technology is already delivering productivity gains and reflecting that corporate adoption is enhancing profitability.
- ETF Performance Decline: The State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (NYSE:XSW) is down 20.58% year-to-date, illustrating the overall pessimistic sentiment towards the software sector, despite some companies potentially benefiting from AI infrastructure demand.
- Stock Performance Discrepancy: Since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, Microsoft's stock has only risen by 61.26%, from $249.18 to $401.84, significantly lagging behind Meta's staggering 454.07% increase, indicating a lack of market confidence in its AI strategy.
- Capex vs. Revenue Growth: Microsoft is projected to exceed $140 billion annually in capital expenditures for data center expansion, while Meta has successfully integrated AI to enhance its advertising core, achieving a 24% revenue growth by early 2026, highlighting a stark contrast in AI monetization strategies.
- Execution Capability Issues: Analysts have labeled Microsoft's slow integration of new AI models as a “skill issue,” and its high customer concentration risk is concerning, with approximately 45% of its $625 billion cloud backlog tied directly to OpenAI commitments.
- Eroding Market Confidence: As the AI hype shifts towards a competition for bottom-line returns, market confidence in Microsoft's infrastructure ownership has waned, suggesting that mere ownership is no longer a guarantee of investor alpha.

Market Reaction: The Magnificent Seven stocks are experiencing a decline due to growing concerns about artificial intelligence rather than the previous optimism surrounding the technology.
Shift in Sentiment: Investors are now more apprehensive about the implications of AI, leading to a downturn in these key tech stocks.







