RXO Releases Truckload Market Forecast, Spot Rates Up 16.5% YoY
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 20 2026
0mins
RXO released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, which shows rapidly rising truckload spot rates, excluding the impacts of fuel. In first quarter, spot rates, as measured by the Curve, rose 16.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2021. This was also an acceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025, in which rates rose by 5.2%. Through May 15, the Curve is on pace to finish the second quarter at an even higher mark than the first quarter. The surge in rates is the result of continued attrition of carrier capacity, driven by federal regulation enforcement, which has led to a supply imbalance relative to demand. "We've been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn't driven a substantial increase in rates until recently," said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. "The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven't seen since 2022."
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy RXO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on RXO
Wall Street analysts forecast RXO stock price to fall
16 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
11 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 26.590
Low
11.00
Averages
15.42
High
20.00
Current: 26.590
Low
11.00
Averages
15.42
High
20.00
About RXO
RXO, Inc. is a provider of asset-light transportation solutions. The Company offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions, including managed transportation and last-mile delivery. It combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight through supply chains across North America. Its self-learning RXO Connect digital brokerage platform encompasses Freight Optimizer, as well as its mobile app, application programming interface (API) integrations, self-service dashboards and real-time functionality for transacting and tracking freight shipments. Its managed transportation service provides asset-light solutions for shippers who outsource their freight transportation. Its control tower solution leverages the expertise of a dedicated team focused on continuous improvement, and digital, door-to-door visibility into order status and freight in transit. Its last mile offering is an asset-light service that facilitates consumer deliveries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
RXO CEO Drew Wilkerson Named 2026 Rainmaker by DC Velocity
- Leadership Recognition: RXO's CEO Drew Wilkerson has been named a 2026 Rainmaker by DC Velocity, acknowledging his innovation and leadership in the logistics and supply chain industry, which further enhances RXO's reputation in the sector.
- Company Growth: Since its spin-off from XPO Logistics in 2022, RXO has grown into a business exceeding $4.5 billion under Wilkerson's leadership, becoming the third-largest freight brokerage in North America with nearly 10,000 employees serving a wide range of blue-chip clients.
- Strategic Acquisition: In 2024, Wilkerson spearheaded RXO's acquisition of Coyote Logistics from UPS, a move that not only expanded market presence but also increased capacity and network density for customers, positioning the company for long-term growth.
- Industry Honors: With nearly two decades of brokerage leadership experience, Wilkerson has received multiple accolades, including being named to the Charlotte Business Journal's Most Admired CEO list in 2024, showcasing his influence and recognition within the industry.
See More
RXO Awarded 'Best in Cargo Security' by Verisk CargoNet
- Industry Recognition: RXO has been awarded the 'Best in Cargo Security' by Verisk CargoNet, acknowledging the company's leadership in cargo theft prevention and fraud detection, which strengthens the national supply chain.
- Security Infrastructure: RXO's award-winning security infrastructure is supported by a dedicated team of 35 seasoned professionals who implement a multi-layered strategy for carrier verification and fraud prevention, ensuring compliance and safety for every shipment.
- Technological Investment: RXO continues to invest heavily in cutting-edge technology and employee training to stay ahead of emerging threats, thereby enhancing security standards and increasing customer trust and market competitiveness.
- Industry Collaboration: As an active member of CargoNet and other transportation associations, RXO regularly shares threat intelligence to help the logistics industry identify vulnerabilities to cargo theft, thereby improving overall security levels.
See More
US Stocks Plunge as Tech Sector Weighs Down Market
- Market Weakness: On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index declined by 0.99%, reflecting market concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Fed, particularly amid weak performance in technology stocks.
- Economic Data Support: Despite the market downturn, US May retail sales rose by 0.9% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, indicating resilient consumer demand, while pending home sales increased by 3.8% month-over-month, marking the largest gain in 20 months, potentially providing some support to the market.
- Fed Policy Outlook: The Fed maintained interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday but indicated through its dot plot that at least one more 25 basis point hike is expected this year, with the 2026 year-end federal funds rate projection raised to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious outlook on future economic conditions.
- International Market Response: While US stocks declined, overseas markets performed strongly, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new record high and closing up 0.68%, demonstrating global investor confidence in economic recovery, which may contrast with the US market's performance.
See More
Mixed Performance in US Stock Indices, Chipmakers Lead Gains
- Strong Economic Data: US May retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.6%, indicating resilient consumer demand that could positively impact future spending and economic recovery.
- Housing Market Recovery: Pending home sales in May increased by 3.8% month-over-month, significantly surpassing the expected 0.9%, marking the largest gain in 20 months, suggesting a rebound in the real estate market that may stimulate growth in related sectors.
- Oil Price Volatility: The agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has driven crude oil prices down to a 3.5-month low, increasing risk-on sentiment in the market, which may lead investors to reassess the risks and returns of energy-related assets.
- FOMC Meeting Focus: The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but the press conference by new Chair Kevin Warsh will be pivotal, as investors closely watch his outlook on inflation to guide future investment decisions.
See More
Finepoint Capital Increases RXO Holdings
- Share Acquisition: Finepoint Capital disclosed a purchase of 684,829 RXO shares in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $10.05 million, indicating strong conviction in RXO's future performance amid improving industry conditions.
- Position Value Increase: By quarter-end, Finepoint held a total of 10,073,618 RXO shares, with a position value of $147.28 million, reflecting a $28.60 million increase from the previous quarter, showcasing positive market sentiment towards RXO.
- Market Recovery: RXO's stock price surged roughly 75% since the end of March, suggesting that the market is beginning to embrace the recovery narrative, despite flat first-quarter revenue and a drop in adjusted EBITDA from $22 million to $6 million.
- Future Outlook: Finepoint's increased stake signals confidence in the industry's recovery, particularly with expectations of improving freight demand and pricing; RXO's managed transportation segment secured over $100 million in freight management contracts this quarter, highlighting significant market potential.
See More
Finepoint Capital Increases Stake in RXO Shares
- Share Acquisition: Finepoint Capital LP disclosed a purchase of 684,829 RXO shares in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $10.05 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Holding Position: By quarter-end, Finepoint held a total of 10,073,618 RXO shares, valued at about $147.28 million, reflecting a significant investment in the company.
- Market Performance: RXO shares are priced at $25.58, up 62% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 28% increase, suggesting market recognition of its recovery potential.
- Industry Outlook: Despite flat revenue in Q1, RXO's managed transportation segment secured over $100 million in freight management contracts during the quarter, indicating potential demand recovery, and Finepoint's increased stake suggests optimism for future growth.
See More
RXO CEO Drew Wilkerson Named 2026 Rainmaker by DC Velocity
- Leadership Recognition: RXO's CEO Drew Wilkerson has been named a 2026 Rainmaker by DC Velocity, acknowledging his innovation and leadership in the logistics and supply chain industry, which further enhances RXO's reputation in the sector.
- Company Growth: Since its spin-off from XPO Logistics in 2022, RXO has grown into a business exceeding $4.5 billion under Wilkerson's leadership, becoming the third-largest freight brokerage in North America with nearly 10,000 employees serving a wide range of blue-chip clients.
- Strategic Acquisition: In 2024, Wilkerson spearheaded RXO's acquisition of Coyote Logistics from UPS, a move that not only expanded market presence but also increased capacity and network density for customers, positioning the company for long-term growth.
- Industry Honors: With nearly two decades of brokerage leadership experience, Wilkerson has received multiple accolades, including being named to the Charlotte Business Journal's Most Admired CEO list in 2024, showcasing his influence and recognition within the industry.
See More
RXO Awarded 'Best in Cargo Security' by Verisk CargoNet
- Industry Recognition: RXO has been awarded the 'Best in Cargo Security' by Verisk CargoNet, acknowledging the company's leadership in cargo theft prevention and fraud detection, which strengthens the national supply chain.
- Security Infrastructure: RXO's award-winning security infrastructure is supported by a dedicated team of 35 seasoned professionals who implement a multi-layered strategy for carrier verification and fraud prevention, ensuring compliance and safety for every shipment.
- Technological Investment: RXO continues to invest heavily in cutting-edge technology and employee training to stay ahead of emerging threats, thereby enhancing security standards and increasing customer trust and market competitiveness.
- Industry Collaboration: As an active member of CargoNet and other transportation associations, RXO regularly shares threat intelligence to help the logistics industry identify vulnerabilities to cargo theft, thereby improving overall security levels.
See More
US Stocks Plunge as Tech Sector Weighs Down Market
- Market Weakness: On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index declined by 0.99%, reflecting market concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Fed, particularly amid weak performance in technology stocks.
- Economic Data Support: Despite the market downturn, US May retail sales rose by 0.9% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, indicating resilient consumer demand, while pending home sales increased by 3.8% month-over-month, marking the largest gain in 20 months, potentially providing some support to the market.
- Fed Policy Outlook: The Fed maintained interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday but indicated through its dot plot that at least one more 25 basis point hike is expected this year, with the 2026 year-end federal funds rate projection raised to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious outlook on future economic conditions.
- International Market Response: While US stocks declined, overseas markets performed strongly, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new record high and closing up 0.68%, demonstrating global investor confidence in economic recovery, which may contrast with the US market's performance.
See More
Mixed Performance in US Stock Indices, Chipmakers Lead Gains
- Strong Economic Data: US May retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.6%, indicating resilient consumer demand that could positively impact future spending and economic recovery.
- Housing Market Recovery: Pending home sales in May increased by 3.8% month-over-month, significantly surpassing the expected 0.9%, marking the largest gain in 20 months, suggesting a rebound in the real estate market that may stimulate growth in related sectors.
- Oil Price Volatility: The agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has driven crude oil prices down to a 3.5-month low, increasing risk-on sentiment in the market, which may lead investors to reassess the risks and returns of energy-related assets.
- FOMC Meeting Focus: The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but the press conference by new Chair Kevin Warsh will be pivotal, as investors closely watch his outlook on inflation to guide future investment decisions.
See More
Finepoint Capital Increases RXO Holdings
- Share Acquisition: Finepoint Capital disclosed a purchase of 684,829 RXO shares in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $10.05 million, indicating strong conviction in RXO's future performance amid improving industry conditions.
- Position Value Increase: By quarter-end, Finepoint held a total of 10,073,618 RXO shares, with a position value of $147.28 million, reflecting a $28.60 million increase from the previous quarter, showcasing positive market sentiment towards RXO.
- Market Recovery: RXO's stock price surged roughly 75% since the end of March, suggesting that the market is beginning to embrace the recovery narrative, despite flat first-quarter revenue and a drop in adjusted EBITDA from $22 million to $6 million.
- Future Outlook: Finepoint's increased stake signals confidence in the industry's recovery, particularly with expectations of improving freight demand and pricing; RXO's managed transportation segment secured over $100 million in freight management contracts this quarter, highlighting significant market potential.
See More
Finepoint Capital Increases Stake in RXO Shares
- Share Acquisition: Finepoint Capital LP disclosed a purchase of 684,829 RXO shares in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $10.05 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Holding Position: By quarter-end, Finepoint held a total of 10,073,618 RXO shares, valued at about $147.28 million, reflecting a significant investment in the company.
- Market Performance: RXO shares are priced at $25.58, up 62% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 28% increase, suggesting market recognition of its recovery potential.
- Industry Outlook: Despite flat revenue in Q1, RXO's managed transportation segment secured over $100 million in freight management contracts during the quarter, indicating potential demand recovery, and Finepoint's increased stake suggests optimism for future growth.
See More
