PGR vs. BRK.B: Which Insurer is a Safer Investment Option?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
U.S. Auto Insurance Market Growth: The U.S. auto insurance market is expected to reach $349.37 billion by 2025, with average full coverage costs projected at a record high of $2,101 per year. Companies like Progressive and Berkshire Hathaway are positioned for growth due to increased awareness, technological advancements, and evolving ownership trends.
Investment Comparison Between Progressive and Berkshire Hathaway: Progressive (PGR) shows stronger fundamentals with higher return on equity and growth potential compared to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), which has faced challenges with its GEICO subsidiary. PGR is rated as a "Buy" while BRK.B holds a "Hold" rating, indicating a more favorable investment outlook for Progressive.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 199.240
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 199.240
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company's segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. The Company's Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers Snapshot through hardware-based and/or mobile-app versions in all states, other than California.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Progressive Expands Down Payment Assistance for First-Time Homebuyers
- Increased Assistance: Progressive Insurance's UpPayment program offers personalized down payment assistance of up to $13,500 for eligible first-time homebuyers, aiming to support at least 200 applicants, thereby significantly lowering the barriers to homeownership and promoting family stability.
- Application Timeline: The program is now open for applications until October 31, designed to assist first-time buyers in navigating the homebuying process through collaboration with HUD-certified housing counselors, which enhances their chances of successful home purchases.
- Community Support Commitment: The UpPayment program is part of Progressive's “Open the House” initiative, reflecting the company's commitment of over $16 million in the past two years to help more families achieve homeownership through education and financial support.
- Housing Market Context: According to the National Association of Realtors, only 21% of homebuyers in 2025 were first-time buyers, marking the lowest level on record, highlighting the pressures of rising housing costs and wealth disparity, which the UpPayment program aims to address.
See More
Progressive Expands Down Payment Assistance Program for Homebuyers
- Down Payment Assistance Amount: Progressive Insurance is expanding its UpPayment program to provide personalized down payment assistance of up to $13,500 each to at least 200 eligible first-time homebuyers, aiming to help them overcome financial barriers and expedite home purchases, thereby promoting family stability and wealth accumulation.
- Program Background: The UpPayment program is part of Progressive's Open the House initiative, which seeks to help more people achieve homeownership through education, community partnerships, and targeted financial support, especially against the backdrop of rising housing costs and a widening wealth gap.
- Application Requirements: The program is exclusively available to first-time homebuyers who have not owned a home in the past three years, requiring applicants to work with participating HUD-certified housing counselors and meet income and other eligibility criteria to ensure effective allocation and use of funds.
- Long-Term Commitment: Since 2024, Progressive has committed over $16 million to making homeownership dreams more achievable, demonstrating the company's strong dedication to social responsibility and community development.
See More
The Progressive Corporation Rated as Low-Risk Investment
- Price Target Increase: BofA Securities raised The Progressive Corporation's price target from $298 to $312 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance despite Q1 earnings of $1.55 per share falling short of the $1.62 forecast.
- Expense Ratio Improvement: Progressive's expense ratio decreased to 20.0% in March from 20.6%-20.9% in previous months, reflecting progress in cost control, potentially due to reduced advertising expenditures or a more stable workforce.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Based on March data, BofA lowered its full-year forecast for Progressive for fiscal 2026, but increased its out-year projections by 10 cents due to slightly higher stock buyback estimates, reflecting a reassessment of the company's long-term value.
- Enhanced Market Adaptability: Although the loss ratio exceeded expectations, Progressive's net prior-period development was greater than predicted, demonstrating the company's enhanced adaptability to market changes, which may lay the groundwork for future growth.
See More
Berkshire's Insurance Business Faces Competitive Pressures
- First Quarter Performance: Berkshire Hathaway reported a revenue increase to $81.1 billion from $77.6 billion year-over-year, indicating a relatively benign period for insurance losses without major catastrophes; however, CEO Abel noted that the insurance business faces increasing competitive pressures.
- Increased Market Competition: Abel highlighted that new capital entering the market has created a more competitive pricing environment, prompting Berkshire's insurance operations to adopt a more cautious approach, particularly in primary and reinsurance sectors, to balance premiums and underwriting risks.
- Auto Insurance Market Dynamics: Geico is experiencing unprecedented customer shopping activity, with Abel stating that despite rising premiums, the company is working hard to segment its customer base to retain as many clients as possible, although restarting growth will be challenging.
- Decline in Underwriting Gains: In the first quarter, Geico's pre-tax underwriting gains fell by 35% due to increased advertising expenses and rising accident claims, highlighting the challenges of maintaining profitability in a highly competitive market.
See More
Lemonade Disrupts Insurance Industry with AI Innovations
- Significant Customer Growth: Lemonade experienced a 23% increase in customers during Q1 2026, surpassing 3.1 million, indicating that its AI-driven service efficiency is attracting more users and solidifying its market position.
- Accelerated Premium Revenue: As of the end of 2022, Lemonade's in-force premium (IFP) reached $1.3 billion, doubling year-over-year despite a 6% reduction in workforce, demonstrating the company's ability to expand its business through efficient AI technology.
- Substantial Revenue Increase: In Q1 2026, Lemonade's revenue soared by 71% year-over-year to $258 million, exceeding the forecast range of $246 million to $251 million, prompting management to raise its full-year revenue forecast to $1.2 billion.
- Enhanced Investment Appeal: Lemonade's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is currently at 5.8, close to its three-year average, with projected revenue of $1.6 billion in 2027, suggesting that long-term investors could see significant returns.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Defensive Dividend Stocks
- Progressive Stock Pullback: Progressive's shares have fallen 30% since last May, yet its total revenue grew by 16% in 2025, with underwriting margins widening from 11.2% to 12.6%, indicating the resilience of its brand and operations.
- Wells Fargo Earnings Performance: Despite missing earnings estimates in Q4 and Q1, Wells Fargo's Q4 revenue rose over 4% year-over-year, with earnings per share increasing from $1.43 to $1.62, demonstrating solid fundamentals.
- Accenture Steady Growth: Accenture achieved nearly $70 billion in revenue last year, up 7%, and expects full-year earnings between $13.52 and $13.90 per share, sufficient to cover the projected $6.52 dividend per share, showcasing business resilience.
- Dividend Growth Trend: Wells Fargo has increased its annual per-share dividend for five consecutive years, with last year's increase exceeding 12% and 2024's topping 14%, reflecting a strong dividend growth trajectory despite regulatory challenges.
See More
Progressive Expands Down Payment Assistance for First-Time Homebuyers
- Increased Assistance: Progressive Insurance's UpPayment program offers personalized down payment assistance of up to $13,500 for eligible first-time homebuyers, aiming to support at least 200 applicants, thereby significantly lowering the barriers to homeownership and promoting family stability.
- Application Timeline: The program is now open for applications until October 31, designed to assist first-time buyers in navigating the homebuying process through collaboration with HUD-certified housing counselors, which enhances their chances of successful home purchases.
- Community Support Commitment: The UpPayment program is part of Progressive's “Open the House” initiative, reflecting the company's commitment of over $16 million in the past two years to help more families achieve homeownership through education and financial support.
- Housing Market Context: According to the National Association of Realtors, only 21% of homebuyers in 2025 were first-time buyers, marking the lowest level on record, highlighting the pressures of rising housing costs and wealth disparity, which the UpPayment program aims to address.
See More
Progressive Expands Down Payment Assistance Program for Homebuyers
- Down Payment Assistance Amount: Progressive Insurance is expanding its UpPayment program to provide personalized down payment assistance of up to $13,500 each to at least 200 eligible first-time homebuyers, aiming to help them overcome financial barriers and expedite home purchases, thereby promoting family stability and wealth accumulation.
- Program Background: The UpPayment program is part of Progressive's Open the House initiative, which seeks to help more people achieve homeownership through education, community partnerships, and targeted financial support, especially against the backdrop of rising housing costs and a widening wealth gap.
- Application Requirements: The program is exclusively available to first-time homebuyers who have not owned a home in the past three years, requiring applicants to work with participating HUD-certified housing counselors and meet income and other eligibility criteria to ensure effective allocation and use of funds.
- Long-Term Commitment: Since 2024, Progressive has committed over $16 million to making homeownership dreams more achievable, demonstrating the company's strong dedication to social responsibility and community development.
See More
The Progressive Corporation Rated as Low-Risk Investment
- Price Target Increase: BofA Securities raised The Progressive Corporation's price target from $298 to $312 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance despite Q1 earnings of $1.55 per share falling short of the $1.62 forecast.
- Expense Ratio Improvement: Progressive's expense ratio decreased to 20.0% in March from 20.6%-20.9% in previous months, reflecting progress in cost control, potentially due to reduced advertising expenditures or a more stable workforce.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Based on March data, BofA lowered its full-year forecast for Progressive for fiscal 2026, but increased its out-year projections by 10 cents due to slightly higher stock buyback estimates, reflecting a reassessment of the company's long-term value.
- Enhanced Market Adaptability: Although the loss ratio exceeded expectations, Progressive's net prior-period development was greater than predicted, demonstrating the company's enhanced adaptability to market changes, which may lay the groundwork for future growth.
See More
Berkshire's Insurance Business Faces Competitive Pressures
- First Quarter Performance: Berkshire Hathaway reported a revenue increase to $81.1 billion from $77.6 billion year-over-year, indicating a relatively benign period for insurance losses without major catastrophes; however, CEO Abel noted that the insurance business faces increasing competitive pressures.
- Increased Market Competition: Abel highlighted that new capital entering the market has created a more competitive pricing environment, prompting Berkshire's insurance operations to adopt a more cautious approach, particularly in primary and reinsurance sectors, to balance premiums and underwriting risks.
- Auto Insurance Market Dynamics: Geico is experiencing unprecedented customer shopping activity, with Abel stating that despite rising premiums, the company is working hard to segment its customer base to retain as many clients as possible, although restarting growth will be challenging.
- Decline in Underwriting Gains: In the first quarter, Geico's pre-tax underwriting gains fell by 35% due to increased advertising expenses and rising accident claims, highlighting the challenges of maintaining profitability in a highly competitive market.
See More
Lemonade Disrupts Insurance Industry with AI Innovations
- Significant Customer Growth: Lemonade experienced a 23% increase in customers during Q1 2026, surpassing 3.1 million, indicating that its AI-driven service efficiency is attracting more users and solidifying its market position.
- Accelerated Premium Revenue: As of the end of 2022, Lemonade's in-force premium (IFP) reached $1.3 billion, doubling year-over-year despite a 6% reduction in workforce, demonstrating the company's ability to expand its business through efficient AI technology.
- Substantial Revenue Increase: In Q1 2026, Lemonade's revenue soared by 71% year-over-year to $258 million, exceeding the forecast range of $246 million to $251 million, prompting management to raise its full-year revenue forecast to $1.2 billion.
- Enhanced Investment Appeal: Lemonade's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is currently at 5.8, close to its three-year average, with projected revenue of $1.6 billion in 2027, suggesting that long-term investors could see significant returns.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Defensive Dividend Stocks
- Progressive Stock Pullback: Progressive's shares have fallen 30% since last May, yet its total revenue grew by 16% in 2025, with underwriting margins widening from 11.2% to 12.6%, indicating the resilience of its brand and operations.
- Wells Fargo Earnings Performance: Despite missing earnings estimates in Q4 and Q1, Wells Fargo's Q4 revenue rose over 4% year-over-year, with earnings per share increasing from $1.43 to $1.62, demonstrating solid fundamentals.
- Accenture Steady Growth: Accenture achieved nearly $70 billion in revenue last year, up 7%, and expects full-year earnings between $13.52 and $13.90 per share, sufficient to cover the projected $6.52 dividend per share, showcasing business resilience.
- Dividend Growth Trend: Wells Fargo has increased its annual per-share dividend for five consecutive years, with last year's increase exceeding 12% and 2024's topping 14%, reflecting a strong dividend growth trajectory despite regulatory challenges.
See More
