Rising Default Concerns in Software Loans Impact Private Credit Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Rising Default Risks: Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan stated at an investing conference that concerns over defaults on loans to software companies are escalating, potentially leading to turmoil in the private credit market, particularly affecting business development companies (BDCs) that hold significant amounts of software loans.
- Significant Market Reaction: Rowan pointed out that the pressure from artificial intelligence on the software sector could jeopardize the $1.8 trillion private credit market, with investor concerns already causing significant volatility in equity markets.
- Importance of Risk Management: He emphasized the critical need for good underwriting and risk management in light of impending risks, especially following a series of bank loan failures that have exacerbated tensions in the credit markets.
- Increased Redemption Requests: Meanwhile, Blackstone's private credit fund has seen record redemption requests due to market concerns, although its institutional clients continue to allocate significant amounts to private credit, reflecting the complexity of the market and investor anxiety.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy APO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on APO
Wall Street analysts forecast APO stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 106.450
Low
136.00
Averages
164.45
High
182.00
Current: 106.450
Low
136.00
Averages
164.45
High
182.00
About APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a global alternative asset manager and a retirement services provider. It operates through three segments: Asset Management, Retirement Services and Principal Investing. The Asset Management segment focuses on three investing strategies: yield, hybrid, and equity. These strategies reflect the range of investment capabilities across its platform based on relative risk and return. The Retirement Services business is conducted by Athene Holding Ltd (Athene), a financial services company that specializes in issuing, reinsuring, and acquiring retirement savings products designed for the increasing number of individuals and institutions seeking to fund retirement needs. Athene product lines include annuities and funding agreements. The Principal Investing segment includes realized performance fee income, realized investment income from its balance sheet investments, and certain allocable expenses related to corporate functions supporting the entire company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apollo Global Management Shares May Be at a Bottom
- Downward Trend: Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO) shares continued to decline on Tuesday morning, reflecting significant selling pressure; however, the current price is nearing a support level, indicating a potential bottoming out.
- Oversold Condition Analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that Apollo's stock is oversold on both short-term and long-term bases, suggesting that emotional selling has pushed the price below typical trading ranges, which may attract buyers.
- Market Rebound Expectations: The oversold condition could draw both short-term traders and long-term investors into the market, anticipating a price reversion to normal levels, which may drive the stock price higher and establish a support floor.
- Impact on Trading Strategies: Many trading strategies are based on the concept of mean reversion; Apollo's oversold status may encourage investors to adopt buying strategies, potentially ending the current downtrend and restoring market confidence.
See More
Rising Default Concerns in Software Loans Impact Private Credit Market
- Rising Default Risks: Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan stated at an investing conference that concerns over defaults on loans to software companies are escalating, potentially leading to turmoil in the private credit market, particularly affecting business development companies (BDCs) that hold significant amounts of software loans.
- Significant Market Reaction: Rowan pointed out that the pressure from artificial intelligence on the software sector could jeopardize the $1.8 trillion private credit market, with investor concerns already causing significant volatility in equity markets.
- Importance of Risk Management: He emphasized the critical need for good underwriting and risk management in light of impending risks, especially following a series of bank loan failures that have exacerbated tensions in the credit markets.
- Increased Redemption Requests: Meanwhile, Blackstone's private credit fund has seen record redemption requests due to market concerns, although its institutional clients continue to allocate significant amounts to private credit, reflecting the complexity of the market and investor anxiety.
See More
Blackstone Defends Quality of Private Credit Fund Amid Investor Withdrawals
- Investor Redemption Situation: In the last quarter, Blackstone's flagship private credit fund BCRED allowed investors to withdraw 7.9% of their capital, approximately $650 million, leading to an 8.5% drop in the company's stock price on Tuesday morning, indicating heightened market concerns about private credit.
- Loan Quality Defense: Blackstone President Jon Gray highlighted that over 400 borrowers in BCRED achieved 10% EBITDA growth last year, expressing optimism about loan quality despite the bearish market sentiment, which he believes will help stabilize investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Although Blackstone's measures to allow investor redemptions aimed to address liquidity needs, this move did not alleviate market tensions but instead sparked broader concerns about the private credit sector, particularly regarding loans in the software industry.
- Fund Performance Data: BCRED has delivered an annualized return of 9.8% since inception for Class I shares, with a Blackstone spokesperson emphasizing the firm's commitment to meeting redemption requests, showcasing confidence in the fund and alignment with investors.
See More
Market Watch: Oil Price Surge and Corporate Developments
- Oil Price Surge: Global benchmark Brent crude prices have surged 8% to over $84 per barrel, reaching a new 52-week high, driven by fears of prolonged supply disruptions that could hinder global economic recovery.
- Apple Price Target Raised: Barclays raised its price target on Apple from $239 to $248, adjusting estimates based on expectations for the upcoming foldable and Pro models, although the market's muted response suggests a need to monitor its performance among megacaps.
- MongoDB Shares Plummet: MongoDB shares fell 27% after its flagship database product Atlas reported a slower-than-expected growth rate of 29% in Q4, coupled with disappointing revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, indicating increased competitive pressures.
- Target Shares Rise: Target's stock rose over 4% in premarket trading after the retailer reported better-than-expected earnings for the holiday quarter, with new CEO indicating positive year-over-year sales in February, marking a significant milestone in the company's growth trajectory.
See More
Alternative Asset Managers Decline Following Withdrawals from Blackstone's Private Credit Fund
- Impact on Alternative Asset Managers: Some alternative asset managers are experiencing declines following issues with Blackstone's private credit fund.
- Withdrawal Concerns: The situation has been exacerbated by significant withdrawal requests from investors, raising concerns about liquidity and fund stability.
See More
Apollo Global Management Faces Legal Action Over Epstein Communications
- Lawsuit Initiated: Rosen Law Firm has filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of shareholders from May 10, 2021, to February 21, 2026, alleging Apollo Global failed to disclose communications between CEO Marc Rowan and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, potentially harming the company's reputation.
- Stock Price Decline: Apollo's shares fell 2.54% to $103.75 in pre-market trading on Tuesday, reflecting a ~21% loss in value since February 1, 2026, indicating market concerns over the company's reputational crisis.
- False Statement Allegations: The lawsuit claims that Apollo executives frequently communicated with Epstein in the 2010s, contradicting the company's assertion of no business dealings with him, which led to investor damages when the truth emerged.
- Internal Letter Disclosure: In a letter released on February 18, Apollo denied any business or personal relationship with Epstein, although it acknowledged that former Chairman Leon Black compensated Epstein for personal tax advice, highlighting the complexity of internal communications within the company.
See More
Apollo Global Management Shares May Be at a Bottom
- Downward Trend: Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO) shares continued to decline on Tuesday morning, reflecting significant selling pressure; however, the current price is nearing a support level, indicating a potential bottoming out.
- Oversold Condition Analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that Apollo's stock is oversold on both short-term and long-term bases, suggesting that emotional selling has pushed the price below typical trading ranges, which may attract buyers.
- Market Rebound Expectations: The oversold condition could draw both short-term traders and long-term investors into the market, anticipating a price reversion to normal levels, which may drive the stock price higher and establish a support floor.
- Impact on Trading Strategies: Many trading strategies are based on the concept of mean reversion; Apollo's oversold status may encourage investors to adopt buying strategies, potentially ending the current downtrend and restoring market confidence.
See More
Rising Default Concerns in Software Loans Impact Private Credit Market
- Rising Default Risks: Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan stated at an investing conference that concerns over defaults on loans to software companies are escalating, potentially leading to turmoil in the private credit market, particularly affecting business development companies (BDCs) that hold significant amounts of software loans.
- Significant Market Reaction: Rowan pointed out that the pressure from artificial intelligence on the software sector could jeopardize the $1.8 trillion private credit market, with investor concerns already causing significant volatility in equity markets.
- Importance of Risk Management: He emphasized the critical need for good underwriting and risk management in light of impending risks, especially following a series of bank loan failures that have exacerbated tensions in the credit markets.
- Increased Redemption Requests: Meanwhile, Blackstone's private credit fund has seen record redemption requests due to market concerns, although its institutional clients continue to allocate significant amounts to private credit, reflecting the complexity of the market and investor anxiety.
See More
Blackstone Defends Quality of Private Credit Fund Amid Investor Withdrawals
- Investor Redemption Situation: In the last quarter, Blackstone's flagship private credit fund BCRED allowed investors to withdraw 7.9% of their capital, approximately $650 million, leading to an 8.5% drop in the company's stock price on Tuesday morning, indicating heightened market concerns about private credit.
- Loan Quality Defense: Blackstone President Jon Gray highlighted that over 400 borrowers in BCRED achieved 10% EBITDA growth last year, expressing optimism about loan quality despite the bearish market sentiment, which he believes will help stabilize investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Although Blackstone's measures to allow investor redemptions aimed to address liquidity needs, this move did not alleviate market tensions but instead sparked broader concerns about the private credit sector, particularly regarding loans in the software industry.
- Fund Performance Data: BCRED has delivered an annualized return of 9.8% since inception for Class I shares, with a Blackstone spokesperson emphasizing the firm's commitment to meeting redemption requests, showcasing confidence in the fund and alignment with investors.
See More
Market Watch: Oil Price Surge and Corporate Developments
- Oil Price Surge: Global benchmark Brent crude prices have surged 8% to over $84 per barrel, reaching a new 52-week high, driven by fears of prolonged supply disruptions that could hinder global economic recovery.
- Apple Price Target Raised: Barclays raised its price target on Apple from $239 to $248, adjusting estimates based on expectations for the upcoming foldable and Pro models, although the market's muted response suggests a need to monitor its performance among megacaps.
- MongoDB Shares Plummet: MongoDB shares fell 27% after its flagship database product Atlas reported a slower-than-expected growth rate of 29% in Q4, coupled with disappointing revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, indicating increased competitive pressures.
- Target Shares Rise: Target's stock rose over 4% in premarket trading after the retailer reported better-than-expected earnings for the holiday quarter, with new CEO indicating positive year-over-year sales in February, marking a significant milestone in the company's growth trajectory.
See More
Alternative Asset Managers Decline Following Withdrawals from Blackstone's Private Credit Fund
- Impact on Alternative Asset Managers: Some alternative asset managers are experiencing declines following issues with Blackstone's private credit fund.
- Withdrawal Concerns: The situation has been exacerbated by significant withdrawal requests from investors, raising concerns about liquidity and fund stability.
See More
Apollo Global Management Faces Legal Action Over Epstein Communications
- Lawsuit Initiated: Rosen Law Firm has filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of shareholders from May 10, 2021, to February 21, 2026, alleging Apollo Global failed to disclose communications between CEO Marc Rowan and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, potentially harming the company's reputation.
- Stock Price Decline: Apollo's shares fell 2.54% to $103.75 in pre-market trading on Tuesday, reflecting a ~21% loss in value since February 1, 2026, indicating market concerns over the company's reputational crisis.
- False Statement Allegations: The lawsuit claims that Apollo executives frequently communicated with Epstein in the 2010s, contradicting the company's assertion of no business dealings with him, which led to investor damages when the truth emerged.
- Internal Letter Disclosure: In a letter released on February 18, Apollo denied any business or personal relationship with Epstein, although it acknowledged that former Chairman Leon Black compensated Epstein for personal tax advice, highlighting the complexity of internal communications within the company.
See More
