<Research>CLSA Anticipates 7.4% Year-on-Year Increase in MO February GGR Due to Higher-Than-Expected Visitor Numbers During Golden Week
Visitor Statistics: Macau welcomed 779,300 visitors during the first five days of the Chinese New Year Golden Week, reflecting a 7.4% year-on-year increase, with total visitors expected to reach 1.486 million, surpassing government forecasts by 6%.
GGR Forecast: CLSA predicts Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) will grow by 7.4% year-on-year in February, with an average daily GGR of MOP954 million from February 16 to 28, which is below the consensus median forecast of a 10.5% increase.
Top Stock Picks: CLSA identifies GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA as top stock picks, with respective short selling data indicating significant market interest.
Market Performance: As of February 20, 2026, GALAXY ENT shares rose by 2.732%, while MGM CHINA shares increased by 0.371%, with both companies experiencing notable short selling activity.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00027
About the author
JPM Projects Future Dividend Increases for GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), Maintains Overweight Rating as Preferred Choice
Annual Results Announcement: GALAXY ENT reported its annual results for FY2025, with 4Q25 results surpassing market expectations, a market share increase of 160 bps QoQ to 21.7%, and a profit growth of 29% QoQ.
Dividend Performance: The final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8 reflects a 61% payout ratio for FY2025, meeting broker estimates but disappointing some investors hoping for a higher return.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating for GALAXY ENT, designating it as a top pick with a target price of $52, while expressing a selective outlook on the gaming sector.
Future Expectations: There are expectations for gradual dividend increases, with potential positive developments anticipated in the interim results for FY2026, set to be announced in August.
UBS: GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Reports 4Q25 Adj. EBITDA as Expected; Maintains Buy Rating
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.3 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase and a 29% quarter-over-quarter increase, with adjusted figures showing a 9% YoY and 7% QoQ rise.
Dividend Announcement: The company declared a final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8, exceeding market expectations, resulting in a total annual DPS of $1.5 and a payout ratio increase to about 61% from 50% in 2024.
M Stanley Sets GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Target Price at $44 Following Strong Quarterly Results and Increased DPS
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in 4Q25 corporate EBITDA, reaching $4.296 billion, surpassing both Morgan Stanley's forecast and market consensus.
Dividend Information: The company announced a 50% increase in its 2025 dividend per share to $1.50, although its dividend yield of 3.6% remains lower compared to competitors like Sands, MGM, and Wynn.
CLSA Reports GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Adjusted EBITDA Expectations; Company Maintains Position as Sector Leader
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, surpassing market expectations. The final dividend per share rose by 60% to $0.8, with a full-year payout ratio increase of 1,100 basis points to 61%.
Market Position and Outlook: CLSA maintains an Outperform rating for GALAXY ENT, citing its competitive advantage in the Macau market and potential for further dividend growth, with a target price set at $49.5.
Francis Lui: GALAXY ENT to Thoughtfully Evaluate Dividend Amidst Importance of Cash Flow
Annual Results Announcement: Galaxy Entertainment announced its annual results for 2025, highlighting a significant short selling activity of $43.69 million and a ratio of 14.248%.
Financial Stability Emphasis: Chairman Francis Lui emphasized the Group's strong financial position and the importance of maintaining sufficient cash flow to manage unforeseen circumstances, which will influence future dividend declarations.
G Sachs Anticipates GALAXY ENT Will Have Sufficient Financial Resources for Dividend Increase, but Lowers Price Target to $53.4
Financial Performance: Goldman Sachs reported that GALAXY ENT achieved strong 4Q25 results with EBITDA growth of 29% QoQ to HKD4.3 billion, aligning with expectations and the upper end of consensus estimates.
Dividend Policy: The company declared a final DPS of HKD0.8 for 2H25, increasing its earnings payout to 64%, with management indicating plans to maintain a minimum 65% payout in the future.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs believes GALAXY ENT has sufficient financial capacity to increase dividends or adopt a progressive dividend policy, supported by strong free cash flow and substantial net cash reserves.
Market Impact: The upcoming "Two Sessions" from March 4 to 11 may influence gaming and tourism demand, leading Goldman Sachs to slightly adjust its EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27 and lower the 12-month target price from HKD54 to HKD53.4 while maintaining a Buy rating.
JPM Projects Future Dividend Increases for GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), Maintains Overweight Rating as Preferred Choice
Annual Results Announcement: GALAXY ENT reported its annual results for FY2025, with 4Q25 results surpassing market expectations, a market share increase of 160 bps QoQ to 21.7%, and a profit growth of 29% QoQ.
Dividend Performance: The final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8 reflects a 61% payout ratio for FY2025, meeting broker estimates but disappointing some investors hoping for a higher return.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating for GALAXY ENT, designating it as a top pick with a target price of $52, while expressing a selective outlook on the gaming sector.
Future Expectations: There are expectations for gradual dividend increases, with potential positive developments anticipated in the interim results for FY2026, set to be announced in August.
UBS: GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Reports 4Q25 Adj. EBITDA as Expected; Maintains Buy Rating
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.3 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase and a 29% quarter-over-quarter increase, with adjusted figures showing a 9% YoY and 7% QoQ rise.
Dividend Announcement: The company declared a final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8, exceeding market expectations, resulting in a total annual DPS of $1.5 and a payout ratio increase to about 61% from 50% in 2024.
M Stanley Sets GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Target Price at $44 Following Strong Quarterly Results and Increased DPS
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in 4Q25 corporate EBITDA, reaching $4.296 billion, surpassing both Morgan Stanley's forecast and market consensus.
Dividend Information: The company announced a 50% increase in its 2025 dividend per share to $1.50, although its dividend yield of 3.6% remains lower compared to competitors like Sands, MGM, and Wynn.
CLSA Reports GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Adjusted EBITDA Expectations; Company Maintains Position as Sector Leader
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, surpassing market expectations. The final dividend per share rose by 60% to $0.8, with a full-year payout ratio increase of 1,100 basis points to 61%.
Market Position and Outlook: CLSA maintains an Outperform rating for GALAXY ENT, citing its competitive advantage in the Macau market and potential for further dividend growth, with a target price set at $49.5.
Francis Lui: GALAXY ENT to Thoughtfully Evaluate Dividend Amidst Importance of Cash Flow
Annual Results Announcement: Galaxy Entertainment announced its annual results for 2025, highlighting a significant short selling activity of $43.69 million and a ratio of 14.248%.
Financial Stability Emphasis: Chairman Francis Lui emphasized the Group's strong financial position and the importance of maintaining sufficient cash flow to manage unforeseen circumstances, which will influence future dividend declarations.
G Sachs Anticipates GALAXY ENT Will Have Sufficient Financial Resources for Dividend Increase, but Lowers Price Target to $53.4
Financial Performance: Goldman Sachs reported that GALAXY ENT achieved strong 4Q25 results with EBITDA growth of 29% QoQ to HKD4.3 billion, aligning with expectations and the upper end of consensus estimates.
Dividend Policy: The company declared a final DPS of HKD0.8 for 2H25, increasing its earnings payout to 64%, with management indicating plans to maintain a minimum 65% payout in the future.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs believes GALAXY ENT has sufficient financial capacity to increase dividends or adopt a progressive dividend policy, supported by strong free cash flow and substantial net cash reserves.
Market Impact: The upcoming "Two Sessions" from March 4 to 11 may influence gaming and tourism demand, leading Goldman Sachs to slightly adjust its EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27 and lower the 12-month target price from HKD54 to HKD53.4 while maintaining a Buy rating.
