01928 Overview

Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of March was MOP5.65 billion, showing a 33% week-over-week decline, but if the daily average GGR remains between MOP680 million and MOP730 million, March's total GGR could reach MOP21.3-22.4 billion, reflecting an 8-14% year-over-year growth.

HSBC's Ratings on Casino Stocks: HSBC Global Research maintained a "Buy" rating on SANDS CHINA LTD with a target price of $22.5, citing ongoing initiatives to sustain market share, while also expressing optimism for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with target prices of $49 and $17, respectively.

Stock Performance: Several casino stocks in Hong Kong showed positive gains, with Galaxy Entertainment up by 1.895% and MGM China by 1.751%.

Short Selling Data: Galaxy Entertainment had the highest short selling amount at $40.21M, while MGM China had the highest short selling ratio at 58.844%.

Analyst Ratings: UBS upgraded Sands China Ltd and Melco International Development to "Buy" while maintaining a 5% GGR growth forecast for the year.

Current Ratings: SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau are rated as "Hold," with target prices of 2.2 and 6.5 respectively.

Stock Ratings and Target Prices: Various companies in the gaming sector have received updated ratings and target prices, with Melco Resorts rated as "Buy" and Sands China downgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy".

Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity is noted across several companies, with Sands China experiencing the highest short selling ratio at 52.992%.

Market Performance: Most companies listed, including Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, have seen declines in their stock prices, with Galaxy down by 4.522%.

Analyst Recommendations: CLSA has highlighted Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China as top picks following a positive report on Macau's gaming revenue for February.

Positive Outlook on Macau's Gaming Industry: UBS has a favorable view of Macau's gaming sector, citing strong year-to-date demand that supports sustainable growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2023.

GGR Growth Projections: The broker forecasts a 5% year-over-year GGR growth for 2026, with an anticipated increase of approximately 8% in the first half and a slowdown to about 3% in the second half.

Target Price Adjustments: UBS has lowered target prices for Macau casinos while upgrading SANDS CHINA LTD and MELCO INT'L DEV from Neutral to Buy, with new target prices set at $20.4 and $5.3, respectively.

Top Picks in the Sector: UBS identifies Melco Resorts & Entertainment and SANDS CHINA LTD as top picks, with Melco's target price set at US$9.4 and rated as a Buy.

Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February increased by 4% year-on-year to MOP20.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a notable surge in the last week of February driven by high-end customer demand.

Investor Recommendations: JPMorgan advised investors to be selective, favoring GALAXY ENT with a target price of HKD52, while rating SJM HOLDINGS and MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT as Underweight with lower target prices.

Financial Performance: Goldman Sachs reported that GALAXY ENT achieved strong 4Q25 results with EBITDA growth of 29% QoQ to HKD4.3 billion, aligning with expectations and the upper end of consensus estimates.

Dividend Policy: The company declared a final DPS of HKD0.8 for 2H25, increasing its earnings payout to 64%, with management indicating plans to maintain a minimum 65% payout in the future.

Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs believes GALAXY ENT has sufficient financial capacity to increase dividends or adopt a progressive dividend policy, supported by strong free cash flow and substantial net cash reserves.

Market Impact: The upcoming "Two Sessions" from March 4 to 11 may influence gaming and tourism demand, leading Goldman Sachs to slightly adjust its EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27 and lower the 12-month target price from HKD54 to HKD53.4 while maintaining a Buy rating.