Projected Target Price for SPYG Analyst: $118
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy HLT?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Target Price Analysis: The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) has an implied analyst target price of $118.18, indicating a potential upside of 9.73% from its current trading price of $107.70.
Notable Holdings with Upside: Key underlying holdings of SPYG, such as Altria Group Inc (MO), Tapestry Inc (TPR), and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), show significant upside potential based on analyst target prices, with expected increases of 10.43%, 10.17%, and 9.89% respectively.
Analyst Target Justification: The article raises questions about whether analysts' target prices are justified or overly optimistic, suggesting that high targets could lead to future downgrades if they do not align with recent market developments.
Investor Research Importance: It emphasizes the need for further investor research to assess the validity of analyst targets in light of current company and industry trends.
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Analyst Views on HLT
Wall Street analysts forecast HLT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLT is 292.37 USD with a low forecast of 253.00 USD and a high forecast of 340.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 325.130
Low
253.00
Averages
292.37
High
340.00
Current: 325.130
Low
253.00
Averages
292.37
High
340.00
About HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is a global hospitality company that is engaged in managing, franchising, owning and leasing hotels and resorts, and licensing its intellectual property, including brand names, trademarks and service marks. It has a portfolio of over 24 brands comprising more than 8,400 properties and more than 1.25 million rooms in 140 countries and territories. It has two segments: management and franchise and ownership. The management and franchise segment includes all the hotels it manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels that license its intellectual property (IP), and/or use its booking channels and related programs, and where it provides other contracted services to third-party owners. The ownership segment includes nightly hotel room sales, food and beverage sales and other services at its consolidated owned and leased hotels. Its brands include Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Accelerated Global Expansion: Nearly 200 hotels opened in Q4, with a pipeline exceeding 520,000 rooms, and net unit growth expected to remain between 6% and 7% in 2026, indicating significant progress in the company's global expansion strategy.
- Brand Diversification: The introduction of new brands such as Apartment Collection and Outset Collection is anticipated to drive future conversion growth, particularly in the mid-to-upscale market, further enhancing market share and customer loyalty.
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- Profitability Gains: Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $946 million, with profits up 18% to $2.07 per share, both surpassing analyst expectations of $2.02, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Occupancy Decline: Despite a 0.5% year-over-year increase in RevPAR, U.S. occupancy fell by 0.9% and system-wide occupancy declined by 0.3%, highlighting the impact of economic bifurcation on consumer behavior, which may pose challenges for future performance.
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- Q1 Revenue Growth Expectation: Hilton expects revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth between 1% and 2% year-over-year for the first quarter.
- Impact of Recent Storms: The anticipated growth includes considerations for the impact of recent storms in the U.S. on their operations.
See More
Hilton Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Optimistic 2026 Outlook
- Record Performance: Hilton's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $3.7 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, while capital returns hit a historic high of $3.3 billion, reflecting the company's strong performance and sustained profitability in global markets.
- Accelerated Global Expansion: Nearly 200 hotels opened in Q4, with a pipeline exceeding 520,000 rooms, and net unit growth expected to remain between 6% and 7% in 2026, indicating significant progress in the company's global expansion strategy.
- Brand Diversification: The introduction of new brands such as Apartment Collection and Outset Collection is anticipated to drive future conversion growth, particularly in the mid-to-upscale market, further enhancing market share and customer loyalty.
- Optimistic Outlook: The CFO projects adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $4 billion and $4.04 billion, with RevPAR growth of 1% to 2%, as management expresses confidence in the economic environment and market demand, suggesting continued benefits from global economic recovery.
See More
Pershing Square Adjusts Investment Portfolio
- Portfolio Adjustments: Over the past 12 months, Pershing Square Holdings, led by billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, closed its positions in Hilton Worldwide (HLT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), while initiating a new stake in Meta Platforms (META), indicating a shift towards tech stocks.
- Performance Impact: Chipotle (CMG) detracted 4.6% from the fund's overall performance, while Nike (NKE) subtracted 2.5%, reflecting challenges faced by these investments and their impact on returns.
- Asset Growth: In 2025, Pershing Square Holdings reported a 20.9% increase in net asset value and a 33.9% return on share price, demonstrating the success of its investment strategy focused on high-quality, high-growth megacaps.
- Core Holdings: The fund has increased its investments in core holdings like Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META), signaling optimism about their long-term growth potential, while total assets under management reached $19.7 billion.
See More
Canadian Travelers Shift to European Disney Amid U.S. Travel Decline
- Visitor Decline: In 2025, Canadian travelers to the U.S. dropped by 22%, totaling 4 million fewer visitors, contributing to a 5.4% decline in overall foreign travel, highlighting the significant impact of political factors on tourism.
- Changing Travel Preferences: Christine Fiorelli from Fairytale Dreams & Destinations noted a 30% shift in clients opting for Disneyland Paris instead of U.S. Disney parks, reflecting a boycott sentiment despite ongoing affection for Disney.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Canada was the top source of visitors to Orlando in 2024 with a record 1.2 million, Visit Orlando has not released 2025 figures, and the upcoming World Cup may influence future travel patterns, yet a 6% drop in foreign visitors is still anticipated.
- Tourism Industry Impact: Bookings for U.S. national parks have plummeted by 42%, with Canadian bookings down 93%, indicating a significant decline in international interest in the U.S., adversely affecting related travel businesses.
See More
Ackman Invests in Meta Platforms Ahead of 13F Filing
- Portfolio Update: Ackman's latest investment presentation reveals a 10% stake in Meta, although the exact position size remains undisclosed, indicating strong confidence in Meta's long-term potential.
- AI Potential Assessment: Ackman believes that Meta's current share price underestimates its long-term growth potential from AI, emphasizing the company's leadership in the rapidly growing digital advertising market and its status as a beneficiary of AI integration.
- User Base Growth: With 3.5 billion daily active users and a growing user base, combined with an experienced leadership team, Ackman expresses optimism about Meta's future performance.
- Investment Principles Overview: Ackman's investment criteria include predictable free cash flow, formidable barriers to entry, and attractive valuations, providing a solid foundation for his investment in Meta.
See More
Hilton Reports Strong Q4 Results but Lowers Profit Guidance
- Strong Performance: Hilton (HLT) reported Q4 total revenue of $3.09 billion, an 11.2% increase year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $2.98 billion, indicating robust performance driven by higher hotel rates.
- Profitability Gains: Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $946 million, with profits up 18% to $2.07 per share, both surpassing analyst expectations of $2.02, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Occupancy Decline: Despite a 0.5% year-over-year increase in RevPAR, U.S. occupancy fell by 0.9% and system-wide occupancy declined by 0.3%, highlighting the impact of economic bifurcation on consumer behavior, which may pose challenges for future performance.
- Cautious Outlook: Hilton expects RevPAR to increase between 1% and 2% for the current quarter, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.87 and $1.93, below the $1.84 estimate, reflecting the company's cautious stance amid market uncertainties.
See More
HILTON EXECUTIVE PREDICTS YEAR-OVER-YEAR Q1 REVPAR GROWTH OF 1% TO 2%, ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT US STORM IMPACTS
- Q1 Revenue Growth Expectation: Hilton expects revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth between 1% and 2% year-over-year for the first quarter.
- Impact of Recent Storms: The anticipated growth includes considerations for the impact of recent storms in the U.S. on their operations.
See More
