Pagaya Technologies Releases FY26 Outlook with Mixed Q4 Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 07 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PGY?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Pagaya Technologies reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.73, beating expectations by $0.17, indicating strong profitability; however, revenue of $317.94 million, growing 9.6% year-over-year, missed estimates by $5.9 million, reflecting increased market competition pressures.
- Network Volume Growth: The first quarter network volume reached $2.6 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding the outlook of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, driven by robust growth in the Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals, while maintaining a focus on prudent underwriting to ensure effective risk management.
- FY26 Outlook: Pagaya anticipates FY26 network volume between $11.45 billion and $13 billion, with total revenue and other income expected between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, and adjusted EBITDA projected between $420 million and $460 million, demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Q2 Expectations: For Q2 FY26, Pagaya expects network volume between $2.875 billion and $3.075 billion, with total revenue and other income projected between $345 million and $365 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $100 million and $115 million, indicating ongoing growth while actively managing costs and risks.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy PGY?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.600
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 13.600
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Pagaya Partners with Experian to Expand Credit Access
- Strategic Partnership: Pagaya has formed a strategic partnership with Experian to embed its AI-driven lending technology into Experian Marketplace, reaching over 80 million Experian members, significantly enhancing credit opportunities for qualified borrowers and expanding financial access for U.S. consumers.
- AI Technology Utilization: By leveraging Experian's AI platform, Experian Activate, Pagaya provides lenders with real-time credit recommendations, enabling them to more effectively identify and serve eligible consumers, thereby improving loan accessibility and transparency.
- Market Impact: This collaboration not only strengthens Pagaya's AI data network but also allows it to utilize insights from over $1 trillion in annual loan applications, further amplifying its influence within the financial services ecosystem and promoting broader credit access.
- Responsible Credit Expansion: The partnership aims to help lenders identify qualified borrowers who may have been overlooked by traditional systems through smarter decision-making capabilities, thus providing millions of Americans with a more inclusive and transparent path to the credit they need.
See More
Promising Tech Stocks Under $20
- Sportradar's Market Leadership: As a leader in providing real-time data for sports betting, Sportradar reported a net loss of €0.02 per share despite an 11% revenue increase, maintaining its guidance for 23% to 25% revenue growth in 2026, indicating strong competitiveness in a rapidly growing market.
- Pagaya's Financial Performance: Pagaya Technologies has surged about 47% to $16.50 per share over the past two months, with a 68% increase in operating income and a 212% year-over-year net income boost to approximately $25 million in Q1, showcasing its strong performance and efficiency in the non-prime loan market.
- Navitas' Future Outlook: Navitas Semiconductor is expected to see a 72% revenue increase in 2027 due to its partnership with Nvidia, although its current stock price exceeds $15 and is considered overvalued, the pivot to the data center market presents significant future revenue potential.
- Investor Focus: While Sportradar was not included in The Motley Fool Stock Advisor's top investment picks, its leadership in the sports data sector and market potential have attracted 86% of Wall Street analysts to rate it a buy, with a price target of $19 per share suggesting a 42% upside.
See More
Analysis of Potential Stocks Under $20
- Sportradar Market Leadership: Sportradar's current stock price is $13.04 with a market cap of $4 billion; despite reporting a net loss of €0.02 per share in the latest quarter, it achieved an 11% revenue increase and anticipates 23% to 25% revenue growth in 2026, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Pagaya Technological Innovation: Pagaya's stock has surged 47% to $16.50, with Q1 operating income rising 68% and net income skyrocketing 212% year-over-year to $25 million, showcasing its robust performance in the non-prime loan market and cost control capabilities, with projected net income for 2026 reaching $110 million to $160 million.
- Navitas Semiconductor Transformation: Navitas's current stock price is $18.14 with a market cap of $4.3 billion; although its gross margin is negative, a partnership with Nvidia is expected to drive a 72% revenue increase in 2027, highlighting its potential in the data center market, prompting investors to watch for future price adjustments.
- Market Analysis and Investment Opportunities: The current market focus on low-priced stocks has heightened, with Sportradar and Pagaya's strong performance and growth expectations making them focal points for investors, especially in the context of increasing economic uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of identifying potential multibagger stocks.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya reported a GAAP net income of $25 million for Q1 2026, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of profitability, demonstrating resilience in core business drivers despite a volatile macro environment.
- Significant Funding Achievements: The company raised $2.1 billion this quarter, attracting five new investors and expanding its investor base through its first-ever auto resecuritization, thereby strengthening its capital market platform.
- Network Expansion: Pagaya successfully onboarded four new partners this quarter, with personal loans remaining the flagship asset class, representing 63% of production, which is expected to further drive market share growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company anticipates network volume for Q2 2026 to range between $2.875 billion and $3.075 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $100 million and $115 million, reflecting confidence in future growth.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q1 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Pagaya Technologies reported a Q1 non-GAAP adjusted net income of $0.73 per diluted share, up from $0.69 a year ago and exceeding the Visible Alpha consensus of $0.56, indicating improved profitability and boosting market confidence.
- Optimistic EBITDA Guidance: The company provided Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance between $100 million and $115 million, surpassing the analyst consensus of $104.5 million, reflecting strong performance in profitability and cost management.
- Revenue Growth Challenges: Despite reporting Q1 revenue of $317.94 million, an increase from the previous year, it fell short of the analyst estimate of $324.1 million, highlighting challenges in revenue growth that could impact future market performance.
- Executive Transition: CFO Evangelos Perros will step down on June 15, with Chief Strategy Officer Jon Dobres taking over, which may influence the company's strategic direction and investor confidence.
See More
Pagaya Raises 2026 Net Income Guidance to $110M-$160M Amid Management Changes
- Guidance Upgrade: Pagaya raised its 2026 net income guidance to a range of $110 million to $160 million from the previous $100 million to $150 million, indicating strong confidence in future performance despite first-quarter revenue of $318 million falling short of analysts' expectations of $323 million.
- Management Shakeup: The company appointed Chief Strategy Officer Jonathan Dobres as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective June 15, 2026, aiming to enhance financial management and strategic execution during a pivotal growth phase.
- Network Volume Growth: Pagaya reported a network volume of $2.6 billion in the first quarter, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase driven by growth in the auto and Point-of-Sale (PoS) sectors, showcasing the robustness of its product mix despite missing revenue targets.
- Improved Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment around Pagaya shifted from 'bearish' to 'bullish' on Stocktwits, with message volumes increasing from 'normal' to 'high', indicating optimism about new partnerships and future growth opportunities.
See More
Pagaya Partners with Experian to Expand Credit Access
- Strategic Partnership: Pagaya has formed a strategic partnership with Experian to embed its AI-driven lending technology into Experian Marketplace, reaching over 80 million Experian members, significantly enhancing credit opportunities for qualified borrowers and expanding financial access for U.S. consumers.
- AI Technology Utilization: By leveraging Experian's AI platform, Experian Activate, Pagaya provides lenders with real-time credit recommendations, enabling them to more effectively identify and serve eligible consumers, thereby improving loan accessibility and transparency.
- Market Impact: This collaboration not only strengthens Pagaya's AI data network but also allows it to utilize insights from over $1 trillion in annual loan applications, further amplifying its influence within the financial services ecosystem and promoting broader credit access.
- Responsible Credit Expansion: The partnership aims to help lenders identify qualified borrowers who may have been overlooked by traditional systems through smarter decision-making capabilities, thus providing millions of Americans with a more inclusive and transparent path to the credit they need.
See More
Promising Tech Stocks Under $20
- Sportradar's Market Leadership: As a leader in providing real-time data for sports betting, Sportradar reported a net loss of €0.02 per share despite an 11% revenue increase, maintaining its guidance for 23% to 25% revenue growth in 2026, indicating strong competitiveness in a rapidly growing market.
- Pagaya's Financial Performance: Pagaya Technologies has surged about 47% to $16.50 per share over the past two months, with a 68% increase in operating income and a 212% year-over-year net income boost to approximately $25 million in Q1, showcasing its strong performance and efficiency in the non-prime loan market.
- Navitas' Future Outlook: Navitas Semiconductor is expected to see a 72% revenue increase in 2027 due to its partnership with Nvidia, although its current stock price exceeds $15 and is considered overvalued, the pivot to the data center market presents significant future revenue potential.
- Investor Focus: While Sportradar was not included in The Motley Fool Stock Advisor's top investment picks, its leadership in the sports data sector and market potential have attracted 86% of Wall Street analysts to rate it a buy, with a price target of $19 per share suggesting a 42% upside.
See More
Analysis of Potential Stocks Under $20
- Sportradar Market Leadership: Sportradar's current stock price is $13.04 with a market cap of $4 billion; despite reporting a net loss of €0.02 per share in the latest quarter, it achieved an 11% revenue increase and anticipates 23% to 25% revenue growth in 2026, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Pagaya Technological Innovation: Pagaya's stock has surged 47% to $16.50, with Q1 operating income rising 68% and net income skyrocketing 212% year-over-year to $25 million, showcasing its robust performance in the non-prime loan market and cost control capabilities, with projected net income for 2026 reaching $110 million to $160 million.
- Navitas Semiconductor Transformation: Navitas's current stock price is $18.14 with a market cap of $4.3 billion; although its gross margin is negative, a partnership with Nvidia is expected to drive a 72% revenue increase in 2027, highlighting its potential in the data center market, prompting investors to watch for future price adjustments.
- Market Analysis and Investment Opportunities: The current market focus on low-priced stocks has heightened, with Sportradar and Pagaya's strong performance and growth expectations making them focal points for investors, especially in the context of increasing economic uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of identifying potential multibagger stocks.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya reported a GAAP net income of $25 million for Q1 2026, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of profitability, demonstrating resilience in core business drivers despite a volatile macro environment.
- Significant Funding Achievements: The company raised $2.1 billion this quarter, attracting five new investors and expanding its investor base through its first-ever auto resecuritization, thereby strengthening its capital market platform.
- Network Expansion: Pagaya successfully onboarded four new partners this quarter, with personal loans remaining the flagship asset class, representing 63% of production, which is expected to further drive market share growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company anticipates network volume for Q2 2026 to range between $2.875 billion and $3.075 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $100 million and $115 million, reflecting confidence in future growth.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q1 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Pagaya Technologies reported a Q1 non-GAAP adjusted net income of $0.73 per diluted share, up from $0.69 a year ago and exceeding the Visible Alpha consensus of $0.56, indicating improved profitability and boosting market confidence.
- Optimistic EBITDA Guidance: The company provided Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance between $100 million and $115 million, surpassing the analyst consensus of $104.5 million, reflecting strong performance in profitability and cost management.
- Revenue Growth Challenges: Despite reporting Q1 revenue of $317.94 million, an increase from the previous year, it fell short of the analyst estimate of $324.1 million, highlighting challenges in revenue growth that could impact future market performance.
- Executive Transition: CFO Evangelos Perros will step down on June 15, with Chief Strategy Officer Jon Dobres taking over, which may influence the company's strategic direction and investor confidence.
See More
Pagaya Raises 2026 Net Income Guidance to $110M-$160M Amid Management Changes
- Guidance Upgrade: Pagaya raised its 2026 net income guidance to a range of $110 million to $160 million from the previous $100 million to $150 million, indicating strong confidence in future performance despite first-quarter revenue of $318 million falling short of analysts' expectations of $323 million.
- Management Shakeup: The company appointed Chief Strategy Officer Jonathan Dobres as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective June 15, 2026, aiming to enhance financial management and strategic execution during a pivotal growth phase.
- Network Volume Growth: Pagaya reported a network volume of $2.6 billion in the first quarter, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase driven by growth in the auto and Point-of-Sale (PoS) sectors, showcasing the robustness of its product mix despite missing revenue targets.
- Improved Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment around Pagaya shifted from 'bearish' to 'bullish' on Stocktwits, with message volumes increasing from 'normal' to 'high', indicating optimism about new partnerships and future growth opportunities.
See More
