Pagaya Shares Plunge Over 20% After Earnings Miss and Soft Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4h ago
0mins
Should l Buy PGY?
Source: stocktwits
- Earnings Miss: Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year growth, yet it fell short of Wall Street's expectations of $349.5 million, leading to diminished market confidence in its future performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: PGY shares dropped over 20% following the earnings report, with Benchmark analysts noting that the selloff was 'violent and largely disconnected' from management's comments during the earnings call, indicating an overreaction from the market regarding the company's outlook.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Pagaya forecasts Q1 2026 revenue between $315 million and $335 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $95 million, reflecting a cautious stance that may further impact investor sentiment.
- Analyst Price Target Cut: Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya from $48 to $33 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating that the new target still suggests about a 127% upside from the current share price of $14.52, showcasing analysts' confidence in the company's long-term potential.
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Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGY is 43.33 USD with a low forecast of 35.00 USD and a high forecast of 54.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.640
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 18.640
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
PAGAYA TECHNOLOGIES STOCK PLUMMETS 24.6% FOLLOWING QUARTERLY RESULTS AND FORECAST
- Company Performance: Pagaya Technologies experienced a significant decline in shares, falling by 24.6% following the release of its quarterly results.
- Market Outlook: The outlook for Pagaya Technologies appears uncertain after the disappointing financial performance reported in the latest quarter.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Expected to Report Strong Earnings
- Earnings Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Pagaya Technologies will report an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34 on revenue of $349 million, indicating a strong growth trajectory in profitability.
- Outperformance Record: The company has exceeded earnings expectations in three out of the last four quarters, while revenue has surpassed estimates in all four quarters, demonstrating the effectiveness of its business model and robust market demand.
- Analyst Ratings: Freedom Capital initiated coverage on Pagaya with a price target of $30 and a ‘Buy’ rating, reflecting confidence in its AI-driven credit underwriting capabilities and unique two-sided ecosystem.
- Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits is trending bullish, with PGY stock being the third most popular ticker, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Reports Disappointing Earnings, Shares Plunge Nearly 24%
- Disappointing Earnings Report: Pagaya's fourth-quarter and annual results revealed total revenue of $335 million, a 20% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the $349 million consensus estimate, resulting in a nearly 24% drop in share price.
- Significant Net Income Growth: The company reported a nearly sixfold increase in non-GAAP net income to $78.8 million ($0.80 per share), yet the network volume only grew by 3% to $2.7 billion, indicating weak overall growth.
- Impact of Strategic Exit: Pagaya's strategic exit from its single-family rental (SFR) operations, which was once a significant revenue source, contributed to the mismatch between revenue and network volume growth, disappointing investors.
- Pessimistic Future Guidance: The company anticipates flat or slightly declining network volume for the first quarter, with revenue projections between $315 million and $335 million, both below analyst expectations, highlighting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
See More
Pagaya Shares Plunge Over 20% After Earnings Miss and Soft Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year growth, yet it fell short of Wall Street's expectations of $349.5 million, leading to diminished market confidence in its future performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: PGY shares dropped over 20% following the earnings report, with Benchmark analysts noting that the selloff was 'violent and largely disconnected' from management's comments during the earnings call, indicating an overreaction from the market regarding the company's outlook.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Pagaya forecasts Q1 2026 revenue between $315 million and $335 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $95 million, reflecting a cautious stance that may further impact investor sentiment.
- Analyst Price Target Cut: Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya from $48 to $33 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating that the new target still suggests about a 127% upside from the current share price of $14.52, showcasing analysts' confidence in the company's long-term potential.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya achieved $34 million in GAAP net income and $80 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, with full-year revenues reaching $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $371 million, marking a significant shift towards sustained profitability.
- Risk Management Strategy: CEO Krubiner emphasized the company's disciplined approach to risk management by reducing exposure to higher-risk credit deals, aiming to avoid potential losses and laying the groundwork for long-term value creation.
- Partner Expansion: The company onboarded three new partners, including Achieve and GLS, which is expected to drive the maturation of multiproduct relationships, thereby enhancing earning power and cash flow generation.
- 2026 Outlook: Pagaya projects network volume for 2026 to be between $11.25 billion and $13 billion, with GAAP net income expected to range from $100 million to $150 million, indicating growth potential while managing risk effectively.
See More
U.S. Stocks Mostly Higher, Nasdaq Up Over 1%
- Nasdaq Performance: The Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.15% to 23,295.01 on Monday, indicating strong performance in technology stocks and reflecting increased investor confidence in the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.07% to 50,078.58, suggesting a relative weakness in traditional sectors, which may affect overall market sentiment.
- Sally Beauty Earnings Beat: Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (NYSE:SBH) reported an adjusted EPS of 48 cents for Q1, surpassing market expectations of 46 cents, with quarterly sales of $943.168 million exceeding the anticipated $940.150 million, demonstrating the company's resilience in a competitive market.
- Commodity Market Movements: On Monday, oil prices increased by 0.8% to $64.05, gold rose by 2.2% to $5,088.80, and silver surged by 7.9% to $82.94, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets, which could influence future investment strategies.
See More
PAGAYA TECHNOLOGIES STOCK PLUMMETS 24.6% FOLLOWING QUARTERLY RESULTS AND FORECAST
- Company Performance: Pagaya Technologies experienced a significant decline in shares, falling by 24.6% following the release of its quarterly results.
- Market Outlook: The outlook for Pagaya Technologies appears uncertain after the disappointing financial performance reported in the latest quarter.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Expected to Report Strong Earnings
- Earnings Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Pagaya Technologies will report an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34 on revenue of $349 million, indicating a strong growth trajectory in profitability.
- Outperformance Record: The company has exceeded earnings expectations in three out of the last four quarters, while revenue has surpassed estimates in all four quarters, demonstrating the effectiveness of its business model and robust market demand.
- Analyst Ratings: Freedom Capital initiated coverage on Pagaya with a price target of $30 and a ‘Buy’ rating, reflecting confidence in its AI-driven credit underwriting capabilities and unique two-sided ecosystem.
- Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits is trending bullish, with PGY stock being the third most popular ticker, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Reports Disappointing Earnings, Shares Plunge Nearly 24%
- Disappointing Earnings Report: Pagaya's fourth-quarter and annual results revealed total revenue of $335 million, a 20% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the $349 million consensus estimate, resulting in a nearly 24% drop in share price.
- Significant Net Income Growth: The company reported a nearly sixfold increase in non-GAAP net income to $78.8 million ($0.80 per share), yet the network volume only grew by 3% to $2.7 billion, indicating weak overall growth.
- Impact of Strategic Exit: Pagaya's strategic exit from its single-family rental (SFR) operations, which was once a significant revenue source, contributed to the mismatch between revenue and network volume growth, disappointing investors.
- Pessimistic Future Guidance: The company anticipates flat or slightly declining network volume for the first quarter, with revenue projections between $315 million and $335 million, both below analyst expectations, highlighting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
See More
Pagaya Shares Plunge Over 20% After Earnings Miss and Soft Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year growth, yet it fell short of Wall Street's expectations of $349.5 million, leading to diminished market confidence in its future performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: PGY shares dropped over 20% following the earnings report, with Benchmark analysts noting that the selloff was 'violent and largely disconnected' from management's comments during the earnings call, indicating an overreaction from the market regarding the company's outlook.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Pagaya forecasts Q1 2026 revenue between $315 million and $335 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $95 million, reflecting a cautious stance that may further impact investor sentiment.
- Analyst Price Target Cut: Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya from $48 to $33 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating that the new target still suggests about a 127% upside from the current share price of $14.52, showcasing analysts' confidence in the company's long-term potential.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya achieved $34 million in GAAP net income and $80 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, with full-year revenues reaching $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $371 million, marking a significant shift towards sustained profitability.
- Risk Management Strategy: CEO Krubiner emphasized the company's disciplined approach to risk management by reducing exposure to higher-risk credit deals, aiming to avoid potential losses and laying the groundwork for long-term value creation.
- Partner Expansion: The company onboarded three new partners, including Achieve and GLS, which is expected to drive the maturation of multiproduct relationships, thereby enhancing earning power and cash flow generation.
- 2026 Outlook: Pagaya projects network volume for 2026 to be between $11.25 billion and $13 billion, with GAAP net income expected to range from $100 million to $150 million, indicating growth potential while managing risk effectively.
See More
U.S. Stocks Mostly Higher, Nasdaq Up Over 1%
- Nasdaq Performance: The Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.15% to 23,295.01 on Monday, indicating strong performance in technology stocks and reflecting increased investor confidence in the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.07% to 50,078.58, suggesting a relative weakness in traditional sectors, which may affect overall market sentiment.
- Sally Beauty Earnings Beat: Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (NYSE:SBH) reported an adjusted EPS of 48 cents for Q1, surpassing market expectations of 46 cents, with quarterly sales of $943.168 million exceeding the anticipated $940.150 million, demonstrating the company's resilience in a competitive market.
- Commodity Market Movements: On Monday, oil prices increased by 0.8% to $64.05, gold rose by 2.2% to $5,088.80, and silver surged by 7.9% to $82.94, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets, which could influence future investment strategies.
See More
