Oracle Signs $300 Billion Deal with OpenAI Amidst Stock Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy ORCL?
Source: Fool
- Significant Stock Decline: Oracle's shares have plummeted nearly 55% from their all-time high of $345.72 in late 2025, indicating investor concerns over the company's capital expenditure plans failing to yield meaningful returns, resulting in substantial debt pressure.
- Risks of OpenAI Partnership: While the $300 billion deal with OpenAI appears mutually beneficial, Oracle's heavy reliance on this client, with 58% of its contractual backlog tied to OpenAI, poses risks, especially as the latter could burn through $115 billion in cash by 2029.
- Surging Capital Expenditures: Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion through debt and equity financing to support data center infrastructure, which will exacerbate its already high debt load of $100 billion, creating a long-term drag on profitability.
- Competitive Market Pressures: Although Oracle's forward P/E ratio of 20 seems attractive compared to the Nasdaq 100's 27, the potential for further stock price declines looms as OpenAI faces competition from rivals like Anthropic and Gemini, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
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Analyst Views on ORCL
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 156.480
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
Current: 156.480
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
About ORCL
Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Air Force Awards Oracle $88M Contract for Cloud Services
- Contract Value: The U.S. Air Force has awarded Oracle an $88 million firm-fixed price task order to provide Oracle Cloud Infrastructure services for the Air Force Cloud One program, enhancing security and performance across multiple classification levels.
- Cloud One Program: This initiative offers Department of Defense customers the opportunity to leverage OCI, ensuring mission owners can meet boundary protection needs while enhancing overall security through the Secure Cloud Computing Architecture.
- AI Database Utilization: The task order enables users to utilize Oracle AI Database 26ai on OCI to securely combine organization-specific and public information, generating sophisticated answers and autonomously executing actions during agentic AI workflows.
- Project Timeline: Work under this task order will be performed at contractor-designated facilities throughout the United States and is scheduled to run through December 7, 2028, indicating Oracle's long-term collaboration potential within the Defense Information Systems Network.
See More
Oracle Signs $300 Billion Deal with OpenAI Amidst Stock Decline
- Significant Stock Decline: Oracle's shares have plummeted nearly 55% from their all-time high of $345.72 in late 2025, indicating investor concerns over the company's capital expenditure plans failing to yield meaningful returns, resulting in substantial debt pressure.
- Risks of OpenAI Partnership: While the $300 billion deal with OpenAI appears mutually beneficial, Oracle's heavy reliance on this client, with 58% of its contractual backlog tied to OpenAI, poses risks, especially as the latter could burn through $115 billion in cash by 2029.
- Surging Capital Expenditures: Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion through debt and equity financing to support data center infrastructure, which will exacerbate its already high debt load of $100 billion, creating a long-term drag on profitability.
- Competitive Market Pressures: Although Oracle's forward P/E ratio of 20 seems attractive compared to the Nasdaq 100's 27, the potential for further stock price declines looms as OpenAI faces competition from rivals like Anthropic and Gemini, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
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- American Express CIO Sale: American Express CIO Ravi Radhakrishnan disposed of 15,000 shares between $356.14 and $357.13, generating $5.35 million in proceeds, while retaining 8,945 shares, indicating a short-term outlook on the company's stock price.
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- Brokerage Decline: Charles Schwab's stock dropped around 9% since Tuesday, with the CEO expressing disappointment over the sell-off during a Bloomberg TV interview, despite the company's efforts to leverage AI for client services.
- Real Estate Pressure: CBRE's shares plunged approximately 15.2% over the past week, primarily due to its latest earnings report missing expectations, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
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- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
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- Stock Movements: Nvidia's shares fell nearly 3% while AMD's rose close to 1%, reflecting differing investor expectations regarding the future prospects of both companies, particularly amid intensifying competition in the AI processor market.
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See More
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- Contract Value: The U.S. Air Force has awarded Oracle an $88 million firm-fixed price task order to provide Oracle Cloud Infrastructure services for the Air Force Cloud One program, enhancing security and performance across multiple classification levels.
- Cloud One Program: This initiative offers Department of Defense customers the opportunity to leverage OCI, ensuring mission owners can meet boundary protection needs while enhancing overall security through the Secure Cloud Computing Architecture.
- AI Database Utilization: The task order enables users to utilize Oracle AI Database 26ai on OCI to securely combine organization-specific and public information, generating sophisticated answers and autonomously executing actions during agentic AI workflows.
- Project Timeline: Work under this task order will be performed at contractor-designated facilities throughout the United States and is scheduled to run through December 7, 2028, indicating Oracle's long-term collaboration potential within the Defense Information Systems Network.
See More
Oracle Signs $300 Billion Deal with OpenAI Amidst Stock Decline
- Significant Stock Decline: Oracle's shares have plummeted nearly 55% from their all-time high of $345.72 in late 2025, indicating investor concerns over the company's capital expenditure plans failing to yield meaningful returns, resulting in substantial debt pressure.
- Risks of OpenAI Partnership: While the $300 billion deal with OpenAI appears mutually beneficial, Oracle's heavy reliance on this client, with 58% of its contractual backlog tied to OpenAI, poses risks, especially as the latter could burn through $115 billion in cash by 2029.
- Surging Capital Expenditures: Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion through debt and equity financing to support data center infrastructure, which will exacerbate its already high debt load of $100 billion, creating a long-term drag on profitability.
- Competitive Market Pressures: Although Oracle's forward P/E ratio of 20 seems attractive compared to the Nasdaq 100's 27, the potential for further stock price declines looms as OpenAI faces competition from rivals like Anthropic and Gemini, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
Insider Transactions: Oracle and American Express Executives Sell Shares
- Oracle CEO Transaction: Oracle's CEO Clayton Magouyrk sold 10,000 shares between February 9 and 13 at an average price of $155.23 per share, totaling $1.55 million, while retaining 134,030 shares, indicating confidence in the company's future.
- Goldman Sachs Executives Divest: Goldman Sachs CFO Denis Coleman divested 11,623 shares in a price range of $933.38 to $945.4, generating proceeds of $10.94 million, and after the sale, he held 33,574 shares, reflecting a cautious stance amid market volatility.
- Delta Air Lines Executive Sale: Delta's EVP of Global Sales & Distribution, Steven Sears, sold 38,600 shares at an average price of $75.05, totaling $2.90 million, reducing his holdings to 104,404 shares, which may impact the company's future sales strategies.
- American Express CIO Sale: American Express CIO Ravi Radhakrishnan disposed of 15,000 shares between $356.14 and $357.13, generating $5.35 million in proceeds, while retaining 8,945 shares, indicating a short-term outlook on the company's stock price.
See More
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- Logistics Stocks Hit: C.H. Robinson (CHRW) fell over 14% on Thursday due to AI fears, with a total decline exceeding 10% over the week, indicating a pessimistic outlook for the logistics sector's future.
- Brokerage Decline: Charles Schwab's stock dropped around 9% since Tuesday, with the CEO expressing disappointment over the sell-off during a Bloomberg TV interview, despite the company's efforts to leverage AI for client services.
- Real Estate Pressure: CBRE's shares plunged approximately 15.2% over the past week, primarily due to its latest earnings report missing expectations, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
- Unity Software Plummets: Unity's stock dropped over 26% following its latest earnings release, with Q4 results beating expectations but disappointing first-quarter revenue guidance, leading analysts to believe the company needs time to restore investor confidence.
See More
U.S. Stocks Close Higher as Software Stocks Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.18% on Friday, indicating a recovery after early losses, reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future economic prospects.
- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
- Strong Software Stock Performance: Software stocks like Crowdstrike Holdings and ServiceNow rose over 4% and 3%, respectively, lifting the broader market and indicating a rebound in investor confidence in tech stocks, particularly amid rapid advancements in AI technology.
- Metal Stocks Retreat: Reports of the Trump administration's plans to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products led to declines in metal companies, with Century Aluminum falling over 7%, reflecting the negative impact of policy changes on the sector.
See More
Nvidia Shares Drop as AMD Gains Amid Arista's Shift
- Market Share Shift: Arista Networks CEO Ullal indicated that Nvidia's market share has dropped from 99% to 20%-25% over the past year, suggesting a significant increase in AMD's acceptance as a preferred accelerator, which could threaten Nvidia's dominance.
- Stock Movements: Nvidia's shares fell nearly 3% while AMD's rose close to 1%, reflecting differing investor expectations regarding the future prospects of both companies, particularly amid intensifying competition in the AI processor market.
- Reduced Technology Dependency: Nvidia is gradually decreasing its reliance on Arista's technology as it has developed its own networking solutions to connect AI chips, which may lead to a decline in demand for Arista's offerings and negatively impact its stock performance.
- Industry Dynamics: Despite Nvidia holding approximately 90% of the AI chip market, increasing competition from AMD and Google could affect Nvidia's long-term growth potential, especially in the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape.
See More
