Open USD Stablecoin Challenges Circle's Dominance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- New Stablecoin Launch: Open USD was announced on June 30 by a consortium of over 140 organizations, promising to share reserve earnings with partners and offering free minting and redemptions, aiming to capture market share, particularly from Circle's USDC.
- Circle Stock Volatility: Following the announcement of Open USD, Circle Internet Group's stock fell 22% within 48 hours, although it has since recovered somewhat, indicating investor sensitivity to increased competition in the stablecoin market.
- Regulatory Challenges: Despite Open USD's attractive revenue-sharing model, its ability to replicate Circle's regulatory progress and payment network in the short term remains questionable, as Circle holds a significant first-mover advantage in the market.
- Market Potential and Risks: The stablecoin market has immense growth potential; however, despite a surge in issuance last year, growth has slowed in 2026, suggesting that the sustainability and stability of the market still need time to be validated, especially in the context of restructuring payment infrastructure.
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Analyst Views on CRCL
Wall Street analysts forecast CRCL stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 64.620
Low
65.00
Averages
143.07
High
280.00
Current: 64.620
Low
65.00
Averages
143.07
High
280.00
About CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc. is a global financial technology company. It operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications and the issuer of a United States dollar-denominated stablecoin, USDC and a euro-denominated stablecoin, EURC (collectively Circle stablecoins). It provides a stablecoin network and a range of blockchain-specific software infrastructure. Its product offerings include Stablecoins, Developer Services, Integration Services, and Tokenized Funds. Developer Services develops an array of developer-ready and enterprise-grade infrastructure services that developers can plug into their own applications. It connects and integrates products, such as USDC across blockchain networks. Its Tokenized Funds are regulated yield-bearing investments for collateral use in capital markets. It also offers liquidity services, which provides institutional minting, reserving, redemption, and foreign exchange services for Circle stablecoins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Progress on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act
- Bill Stalled: The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, but it remains stalled in the Senate due to stablecoin yield issues, as traditional banks seek to ban stablecoin yields to protect deposits, creating a significant roadblock for the legislation.
- Compromise Reached: Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks brokered a compromise to ban passive stablecoin rewards while allowing activity-based rewards, enabling the Senate to draft a new version of the bill that could potentially clear a final vote.
- Banking Warnings: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could create a
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- Stablecoin Yield Crisis: Jamie Dimon warns that yield-paying stablecoins could create a 'shadow banking' crisis, as traditional banks push to ban such yields to protect deposits, leading to fierce debates with crypto exchanges.
- CLARITY Act Progress: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, passed by the House last year, remains stalled in the Senate, primarily due to the challenge of addressing interest-bearing stablecoins, which could impact the future of stablecoins.
- Conflict of Interests Intensifies: Should the revised CLARITY Act ban all stablecoin yields, companies like Circle and Coinbase could face significant repercussions, as Circle's USDC would lose its appeal, leading to reduced minting and impacting Coinbase's revenue.
- Legislative Battle Continues: Dimon states that he will continue to fight against the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions, indicating that more legislative clashes may arise in the coming months, affecting market confidence in stablecoins.
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- Decentralized Governance Advantage: Unlike USDC, which is managed solely by Circle, OUSD is governed by an independent board, making it more appealing to companies that prefer not to be controlled by a single entity, which could accelerate the loss of USDC users.
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- New Stablecoin Launch: A coalition of over 140 financial, tech, and retail giants, including Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock, has launched the OUSD stablecoin, aiming to challenge Circle's USDC by offering shared yields and zero-cost minting, which could significantly impact USDC's market share.
- Decentralized Governance Advantage: Unlike USDC, which is solely managed by Circle, OUSD is governed by an independent board of partners, appealing to companies that prefer not to be dominated by a single entity, potentially reshaping the stablecoin market landscape.
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- Stablecoin Market Outlook: Forecasts suggest that the number of stablecoins in circulation could grow from over $310 billion today to trillions by 2030, with companies like Circle leveraging compliance and reserve backing to generate profits through interest and transaction fees, driving business growth.
- Increasing Competitive Threats: Circle faces challenges from unfavorable regulations, rival stablecoins, and new token launches by banks, particularly highlighted by the introduction of Open USD, which could incentivize businesses to switch due to shared reserve yields, leading to a drop in Circle's stock price.
- Accelerating Industry Evolution: While digital dollars have not posed a serious threat to Circle, the rapid evolution of the sector indicates that innovative banks and fintechs are adopting more flexible strategies in blockchain integration, potentially capturing larger market shares in the future.
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- Intensifying Stablecoin Competition: The competition among stablecoin issuers, payment processors, and banks is heating up, with forecasts suggesting that the total value of stablecoins in circulation could surge from over $310 billion today to trillions by 2030, highlighting the immense potential and market appeal of this sector.
- Challenges for Circle: Circle's USD Coin, the second-largest stablecoin, faces significant challenges following the launch of the Open USD stablecoin, which has led to a sharp decline in its stock price, indicating market sensitivity to new competitors and uncertainty in the stablecoin landscape.
- Uncertain Blockchain Payment Future: While the development of digital dollars has stagnated, the future of blockchain payments remains uncertain, with the competition between traditional financial institutions and stablecoin issuers poised to shape the trajectory of this potentially multi-trillion-dollar market.
See More
Progress on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act
- Bill Stalled: The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, but it remains stalled in the Senate due to stablecoin yield issues, as traditional banks seek to ban stablecoin yields to protect deposits, creating a significant roadblock for the legislation.
- Compromise Reached: Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks brokered a compromise to ban passive stablecoin rewards while allowing activity-based rewards, enabling the Senate to draft a new version of the bill that could potentially clear a final vote.
- Banking Warnings: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could create a
See More
Jamie Dimon Warns of Stablecoin Risks
- Stablecoin Yield Crisis: Jamie Dimon warns that yield-paying stablecoins could create a 'shadow banking' crisis, as traditional banks push to ban such yields to protect deposits, leading to fierce debates with crypto exchanges.
- CLARITY Act Progress: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, passed by the House last year, remains stalled in the Senate, primarily due to the challenge of addressing interest-bearing stablecoins, which could impact the future of stablecoins.
- Conflict of Interests Intensifies: Should the revised CLARITY Act ban all stablecoin yields, companies like Circle and Coinbase could face significant repercussions, as Circle's USDC would lose its appeal, leading to reduced minting and impacting Coinbase's revenue.
- Legislative Battle Continues: Dimon states that he will continue to fight against the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions, indicating that more legislative clashes may arise in the coming months, affecting market confidence in stablecoins.
See More
OUSD Stablecoin Poses Existential Threat to Circle
- Launch of New Stablecoin: A coalition of over 140 financial, tech, and retail giants, including Visa, Mastercard, and Coinbase, has backed the new stablecoin Open USD (OUSD), which poses a direct threat to Circle's USD Coin (USDC), causing Circle's stock to drop by 7.21%.
- Revenue Model Disruption: OUSD challenges Circle's traditional revenue model, which relies on cash and U.S. Treasury holdings, by sharing reserve income with ecosystem partners, potentially leading to a significant decline in Circle's market share and revenue.
- Decentralized Governance Advantage: Unlike USDC, which is managed solely by Circle, OUSD is governed by an independent board, making it more appealing to companies that prefer not to be controlled by a single entity, which could accelerate the loss of USDC users.
- Critical Role of Coinbase: Coinbase's partnership with OUSD raises concerns as it may not renew its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, further weakening Circle's income sources, prompting investors to closely monitor its future performance.
See More
OUSD Stablecoin Challenges USDC Market Dynamics
- New Stablecoin Launch: A coalition of over 140 financial, tech, and retail giants, including Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock, has launched the OUSD stablecoin, aiming to challenge Circle's USDC by offering shared yields and zero-cost minting, which could significantly impact USDC's market share.
- Decentralized Governance Advantage: Unlike USDC, which is solely managed by Circle, OUSD is governed by an independent board of partners, appealing to companies that prefer not to be dominated by a single entity, potentially reshaping the stablecoin market landscape.
- Potential Revenue Sharing Risk: Coinbase's partnership with OUSD raises concerns as it may choose not to renew its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle after August 18, which could lead to a substantial decline in Circle's revenue and further impact its stock performance.
- Market Expectations and Valuation Pressure: Analysts project Circle's revenue to nearly double from 2025 to 2028, but the introduction of OUSD may force them to lower growth expectations for Circle, making its current valuation appear overstretched, prompting investors to carefully assess their timing for investment.
See More
Digital Dollar Development Stalls, Stablecoin Prospects Brighten
- Digital Dollar Policy Stagnation: An executive order from Trump in 2025 halted government CBDC development, and Congress passed legislation preventing the Fed from issuing a digital dollar before 2030, reflecting political resistance and market indifference towards digital dollars.
- Stablecoin Market Outlook: Forecasts suggest that the number of stablecoins in circulation could grow from over $310 billion today to trillions by 2030, with companies like Circle leveraging compliance and reserve backing to generate profits through interest and transaction fees, driving business growth.
- Increasing Competitive Threats: Circle faces challenges from unfavorable regulations, rival stablecoins, and new token launches by banks, particularly highlighted by the introduction of Open USD, which could incentivize businesses to switch due to shared reserve yields, leading to a drop in Circle's stock price.
- Accelerating Industry Evolution: While digital dollars have not posed a serious threat to Circle, the rapid evolution of the sector indicates that innovative banks and fintechs are adopting more flexible strategies in blockchain integration, potentially capturing larger market shares in the future.
See More
Congress Passes Bill to Halt Digital Dollar Development
- Legislative Roadblock: Congress has passed legislation preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar before 2030, reflecting strong resistance to CBDC development, which may undermine investor confidence in related markets despite the bill awaiting presidential approval.
- Intensifying Stablecoin Competition: The competition among stablecoin issuers, payment processors, and banks is heating up, with forecasts suggesting that the total value of stablecoins in circulation could surge from over $310 billion today to trillions by 2030, highlighting the immense potential and market appeal of this sector.
- Challenges for Circle: Circle's USD Coin, the second-largest stablecoin, faces significant challenges following the launch of the Open USD stablecoin, which has led to a sharp decline in its stock price, indicating market sensitivity to new competitors and uncertainty in the stablecoin landscape.
- Uncertain Blockchain Payment Future: While the development of digital dollars has stagnated, the future of blockchain payments remains uncertain, with the competition between traditional financial institutions and stablecoin issuers poised to shape the trajectory of this potentially multi-trillion-dollar market.
See More
