Nvidia's Q4 FY2026 EPS Expected to Rise 71%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Fool
- Strong Stock Performance: Despite intense competition and spending on infrastructure, Nvidia's stock surged 38% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, reflecting robust demand in the AI market and investor confidence.
- Optimistic Earnings Forecast: The expected earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 FY2026 is projected at $1.52, a 71% increase year-over-year, with revenue anticipated at $65.47 billion, nearly a 66.5% year-over-year growth, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Market Focus: Investors will be looking for clues on whether AI demand is peaking, particularly through sales and backlogs of Nvidia's latest chip model, Blackwell, which will directly impact its future market performance and competitiveness.
- China Market Dynamics: Although Nvidia plans to reopen chip sales to China in response to U.S. government restrictions, recent media reports suggest that the Chinese government may block these sales, which, if true, could significantly impact its revenue.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 199.570
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 199.570
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Profitability: Nvidia anticipates a 75% increase in earnings per share for the current fiscal year, reaching $8.34, far exceeding the tech sector's estimated 44% year-over-year growth, showcasing its robust profitability and market leadership in the AI sector.
- Partnership Growth: Nvidia has established partnerships with leading AI companies such as Anthropic, Meta, xAI, and OpenAI, providing a stable demand source as these companies see strong adoption of their AI inference applications, further solidifying Nvidia's market position.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite Nvidia's current P/E ratio of 42.5, significantly higher than the Nasdaq-100's 33.4, its strong earnings growth potential justifies this valuation, with expectations of surpassing a $10 trillion market cap within the next three years, attracting more investor interest.
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- Policy Impact: The Trump administration approved shipments of H200 chips to China in January with conditions, raising concerns among US lawmakers about potential military applications, which has further complicated sales terms and slowed supply chains.
- Export Restrictions: Lutnick mentioned that the affiliates rule blocking exports to thousands of Chinese businesses is still under consideration, linked to broader trade negotiations, indicating that policy uncertainty may affect NVIDIA's market strategy.
- Investment Potential: While NVIDIA is recognized as one of the best data center hardware stocks, analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, reflecting a diverse outlook on the AI sector.
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- Optimistic Earnings Forecast: AMD expects adjusted earnings per share to exceed $20 within the next three to five years, with a target of 35% annual revenue growth, highlighting its competitive edge and market potential in the semiconductor industry.
- Market Share Expansion: AMD is poised to capture a larger share of AI infrastructure spending, particularly in real-time decision-making computing systems, with AI revenue projected to reach tens of billions by 2027, further solidifying its market position.
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- Market Share Expansion: Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin processors are expected to reduce inference costs by 90%, significantly enhancing its competitiveness in the AI inference market, with projected data center sales reaching $1 trillion in 2026 and 2027, a substantial increase from the previous $500 billion forecast.
- Strong Profitability: Nvidia anticipates a 75% increase in earnings per share for the current fiscal year, reaching $8.34, far exceeding the tech sector's estimated 44% year-over-year growth, showcasing its robust profitability and market leadership in the AI sector.
- Partnership Growth: Nvidia has established partnerships with leading AI companies such as Anthropic, Meta, xAI, and OpenAI, providing a stable demand source as these companies see strong adoption of their AI inference applications, further solidifying Nvidia's market position.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite Nvidia's current P/E ratio of 42.5, significantly higher than the Nasdaq-100's 33.4, its strong earnings growth potential justifies this valuation, with expectations of surpassing a $10 trillion market cap within the next three years, attracting more investor interest.
See More
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- Sales Delay: NVIDIA has not sold its H200 AI chips to Chinese enterprises, as reported by Secretary Howard Lutnick, who attributed the delay to China's government banning acquisitions to favor domestic market investment, highlighting the tension in US-China trade relations.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration approved shipments of H200 chips to China in January with conditions, raising concerns among US lawmakers about potential military applications, which has further complicated sales terms and slowed supply chains.
- Export Restrictions: Lutnick mentioned that the affiliates rule blocking exports to thousands of Chinese businesses is still under consideration, linked to broader trade negotiations, indicating that policy uncertainty may affect NVIDIA's market strategy.
- Investment Potential: While NVIDIA is recognized as one of the best data center hardware stocks, analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, reflecting a diverse outlook on the AI sector.
See More
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- Market Share and Product Diversity: Micron boasts a market cap exceeding $500 billion with $23.86 billion in revenue for Q2 FY 2026, while SanDisk surpassed $100 billion in market cap earlier this year, reporting $5.95 billion in Q3 FY 2026 revenue, highlighting Micron's advantage in market share and product mix, which positions it better to handle future demand fluctuations.
- SanDisk's Rapid Growth: SanDisk achieved a remarkable 97% sequential revenue growth and 251% year-over-year growth in Q3 FY 2026, with a midpoint revenue outlook of $8 billion for Q4, indicating strong demand in the NAND market, although potential demand slowdowns could pose risks in the future.
- Valuation Differences: SanDisk's forward P/E ratio stands at 21, attractive within the tech sector but still higher than Micron's 9, suggesting Micron is relatively undervalued, while SanDisk's rapid growth may lead to a more favorable valuation in the future.
- Future Growth Potential: While Micron currently holds a valuation advantage, SanDisk's higher growth rates could yield greater stock returns, especially as its high-growth segments increasingly dominate total revenue, making it essential for investors to monitor the long-term performance of both companies.
See More
Brinker International Surprises with Better-Than-Expected Earnings Amid Inflation
- Earnings Surprise: Brinker International reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.90, exceeding the $2.86 estimate, with revenue reaching $1.47 billion, demonstrating strong performance despite cost pressures.
- Sustained Sales Growth: Chili's achieved its 20th consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth at 4.0%, despite a high base of 31.6%, indicating brand resilience and stable consumer preferences.
- Profitability Improvement: Operating income rose 6.18% year-over-year to $166.6 million, with net income at $127.9 million, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability in a high-cost environment, boosting investor confidence.
- Optimistic Outlook: Brinker raised its FY2026 EPS guidance to $10.60-$10.85 and narrowed revenue guidance to $5.78 billion-$5.82 billion, showcasing management's confidence in future performance.
See More
Intel Stock Surge Faces Significant Challenges Ahead
- Government Investment Support: The U.S. government's $8.9 billion investment in Intel, acquiring nearly a 10% stake, reflects confidence in the company's future while providing crucial funding to improve its financial health.
- Strong CPU Demand: Intel has successfully increased gross margins amid surging demand for data center CPUs, and it is expected to continue benefiting from the rapid development of AI infrastructure, further solidifying its market position.
- Intensifying Competition Risks: Despite Intel's recovery in the CPU market, it faces fierce competition from AMD, Nvidia, and others, particularly in the data center space, which could impact its market share and profitability.
- Poor Financial Performance: Intel's foundry business remains unprofitable, reporting an operating loss of $2.4 billion last quarter, and while revenue has increased, the recovery of profitability will take time, necessitating cautious evaluation from investors.
See More
AMD Stock Soars 75%: Opportunities Ahead
- Significant Stock Surge: AMD's stock has surged approximately 75% over the past month, and despite the current price of around $340, it is still considered a reasonable investment based on the company's long-term financial outlook.
- Surge in AI Spending: Meta Platforms announced plans to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs over the coming years, following a similar deal with OpenAI, positioning AMD for strong growth over the next five years.
- Optimistic Earnings Forecast: AMD expects adjusted earnings per share to exceed $20 within the next three to five years, with a target of 35% annual revenue growth, highlighting its competitive edge and market potential in the semiconductor industry.
- Market Share Expansion: AMD is poised to capture a larger share of AI infrastructure spending, particularly in real-time decision-making computing systems, with AI revenue projected to reach tens of billions by 2027, further solidifying its market position.
See More
