Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Outlook Remains Positive
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: stocktwits
- Investor Sentiment Cautious: Despite Nvidia's expected Q4 earnings per share of $1.53, reflecting an 80% year-over-year increase, investors remain concerned about future developments, indicating a cautious market outlook on AI trade prospects.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Aletheia Capital upgraded Nvidia's stock from 'Hold' to 'Buy' with a price target of $250, implying nearly a 32% upside from Friday's closing price, showcasing confidence in the company's future growth.
- Compute Capital Expenditure Outlook: Analysts expect Nvidia and its TPU supply chain participants to capture a lion's share of the $530 billion compute capital expenditure, indicating strong growth potential in the data center market, with projected revenues reaching $475 billion by fiscal Q3 2026.
- Long-Term AI Trend: I/O Fund's Beth Kindig highlighted that TSMC's raised long-term AI growth forecasts signal a multi-year trend in the AI sector, further strengthening Nvidia's market position in this domain.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 187.900
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 187.900
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Data Center Performance: As Nvidia's revenue heavily relies on its data center division, investors will be scrutinizing the demand for its latest GPU, Blackwell, to gauge overall AI market demand and future growth potential.
- Pricing Power Assessment: Despite Nvidia's dominance in the chip market, its gross margin recently fell from 76% to 69.5%, prompting investors to closely monitor management's guidance on future margins to assess changes in its competitive position.
- Chinese Market Opportunity: Nvidia's sales in China have been restricted, with Huang indicating that a fully open market could yield $50 billion annually; investors are eager for updates on management's insights regarding the Chinese market dynamics and future opportunities.
See More
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- Strong Revenue Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's fourth-quarter revenue to reach $65.6 billion, a 65% increase from last year's $39.3 billion, reflecting robust demand and market confidence in the AI sector.
- Surging Product Demand: As hyperscalers continue to expand their AI platforms, demand for Nvidia's GPUs has skyrocketed, with all product lines fully utilized, underscoring the company's critical position in the market.
- Future Growth Potential: CEO Jensen Huang indicated that Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin chip lines could generate $500 billion in revenue by 2026, with AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Valuation and Market Reaction: Despite Nvidia's high P/E ratio of 46, indicating an expensive stock, the strong demand for its products and ongoing earnings growth suggest a positive market outlook, with potential for significant stock movement following the earnings report.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Expectations: Analyst Jeff Pu anticipates Nvidia will achieve $67.4 billion in sales, exceeding guidance of $65 billion and analyst estimates of $66.2 billion, indicating robust near-term performance and sustained market demand.
- Product Portfolio Expansion: Nvidia is expected to unveil a language processing unit (LPU) at the upcoming GTC event, which will enhance its product offerings in inferencing, alongside a potential CPO for scale-out switches, further strengthening its competitive position.
- Stable Gross Margins: Pu projects Nvidia's gross margin for Q2 2024 to remain in the mid-70s, supported by the pass-through of higher memory costs, demonstrating the company's resilience in cost management and profitability.
- Long-Term Optimism: Despite Nvidia's stock underperforming since November 2025, Pu reiterates a Buy rating and raises the price target to $295, reflecting confidence in future performance and optimism regarding demand from non-tier-1 cloud service providers like OpenAI.
See More
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- Tariff Policy Reversal: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to strike down Trump's tariffs, stating that the current law does not authorize the President to impose such duties, potentially obligating the U.S. government to refund over $175 billion to importers, undermining Trump's economic policy foundation.
- New Tariff Implementation: Following the ruling, Trump announced a new global 10% tariff, which he raised to 15% the next day, provoking strong backlash from Congressional Democrats and international trading partners, which could disrupt trade negotiations with countries like India.
- Market Reaction: Although the court's decision surprised Wall Street, stocks rose after the ruling, helping major indexes finish the week positively; however, stock futures fell this morning as investors weighed the implications of Trump's new tariff policy.
- Airline Industry Impact: A blizzard warning in the Northeast led to 15% of scheduled U.S. flights being canceled on Monday, as airlines faced operational challenges during the busy winter holiday period, highlighting the direct economic impact of extreme weather conditions.
See More
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- Strong Fundamentals: Despite Nvidia's stock hovering around $187, JPMorgan analysts indicate that the company's fundamentals are accelerating, with expectations for another beat-and-raise quarter reflecting optimistic market sentiment about future growth.
- New Platform Driving Growth: The new Blackwell Ultra platform is fueling growth, with supply chain checks revealing rack shipments increased from 10,000 to approximately 12,000 units in the January quarter, alongside a rise in higher-priced GB300 systems, potentially pushing revenue above Wall Street's $65.6 billion estimate.
- Robust AI Demand: Cloud providers continue to signal strong demand for AI compute capabilities, with Nvidia's backlog exceeding $500 billion, indicating substantial commitments to AI infrastructure spending that will likely support datacenter growth well into 2027.
- Elevated Market Expectations: Analysts believe Nvidia's stagnant stock price reflects rising market expectations rather than weakening momentum, with guidance expected to reach $74 billion to $75 billion next quarter, further solidifying its market leadership.
See More
Latest Rating Changes on Wall Street
- Nvidia Rating Reaffirmed: JPMorgan reiterates its overweight rating on Nvidia, anticipating a beat in the upcoming earnings report, as the stock has remained stable since last quarter despite high market expectations for its performance.
- BlackRock Upgrade: UBS upgrades BlackRock from neutral to buy, citing strong management fee growth prospects bolstered by solid fourth-quarter results and positive commentary from the CFO, indicating a robust outlook for the company.
- Apple Outperformance: Evercore ISI maintains an outperform rating on Apple, highlighting that as demand for data center financing increases, investors are focusing more on the company's free cash flow generation, which enhances its competitive edge in capital-intensive sectors.
- Dell Rating Adjustment: Bank of America lowers Dell's price target to $135 per share, noting that upcoming earnings may be overshadowed by memory headwinds, although the overall performance remains strong, leading to a more cautious market outlook.
See More
