Nvidia Faces High Expectations Ahead of Q4 Update
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Market Expectation Pressure: Nvidia is expected to report Q4 revenue of $65.6 billion on February 25, 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 71%, but skepticism regarding AI investment returns may lead to a stock price drop, presenting opportunities for long-term investors.
- Historical Performance Analysis: Despite Nvidia exceeding Wall Street estimates in the past four quarters, its stock price fell after three earnings reports, indicating that the market's reaction to beating expectations is not always positive, potentially due to investor concerns about future performance.
- Memory Shortage Risk: If Nvidia's management indicates that memory availability could impact GPU sales during the earnings call, it could trigger investor panic, leading to significant stock price fluctuations that affect the company's short-term market performance.
- AI Investment ROI Doubts: In an environment where AI investment returns are questioned, Nvidia faces competitive pressure from major clients like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, which may make it difficult for the company to gain investor confidence post-earnings, further impacting stock performance.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 182.810
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 182.810
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Capital Expenditures: Major tech companies plan to further increase capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AI infrastructure, which will directly boost Nvidia's GPU sales and solidify its market dominance.
- Surge in Product Demand: CEO Jensen Huang noted that demand for the Blackwell platform data center products is “off the charts,” indicating rapid growth in market demand for Nvidia's AI computing products.
- Record of Exceeding Estimates: Nvidia has surpassed Wall Street's earnings expectations in 20 out of the last 22 quarters, demonstrating strong performance stability and management's clear visibility into future results, with expectations to continue this trend.
See More
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SEC Filing: The dissolution of the stake was formally communicated through a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), highlighting regulatory compliance in the process.
See More
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- Nvidia's Market Dominance: Nvidia (NVDA) reported record revenue of $57 billion in Q3 FY2026, reflecting over 60% year-over-year growth, with a forecast of $65 billion for Q4, indicating strong demand and growth potential in the AI chip market.
- Micron's Strategic Shift: Micron Technology (MU) achieved a 57% year-over-year growth in Q1 FY2026 and plans to exit its consumer business to focus on AI storage solutions, which is expected to yield higher profits and long-term growth.
- Alphabet's Diversified Revenue: Alphabet's (GOOGL) search revenue reached $95.9 billion in Q4 FY2024, up 17% year-over-year, while its cloud computing segment grew by 48%, showcasing its success in AI investments and future growth potential.
- Overall AI Industry Growth: As AI technology becomes more prevalent, companies like Nvidia, Micron, and Alphabet are enhancing their market performance, which is expected to drive industry growth and attract more investor interest.
See More
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- Nvidia's Impressive Earnings: Nvidia reported record revenue of $57 billion in Q3 FY2026, a 22% sequential increase, with net income reaching $31.9 billion, up over 60% year-over-year, highlighting its strong demand and leadership in the AI chip market.
- Micron's Critical Role: Micron achieved a 57% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 FY2026, nearly tripling its net income, indicating its memory solutions are essential for Nvidia's chips, and the company is pivoting fully towards the AI market for higher margins.
- Google's AI Success Story: Alphabet's Q4 FY2026 search revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $95.9 billion, with cloud revenue increasing 48% to $17.7 billion, showcasing its diverse business opportunities and robust growth potential in AI.
- Market Outlook for AI Investments: As tech companies invest billions in AI, firms like Nvidia, Micron, and Alphabet are demonstrating strong growth potential, expected to continue driving market performance amid the ongoing evolution of AI technologies.
See More
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- Nvidia Reduces ARM Stake: Nvidia gradually reduced its stake in ARM by the end of 2024, holding 1.1 million shares valued at $155.8 million; despite the sell-off, Nvidia's 20-year licensing agreement with ARM remains intact, indicating a long-term partnership.
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- Positive Market Reaction: Following its Nasdaq debut, ARM's market cap is approximately $135 billion, and Nvidia's stake reduction did not dampen market confidence, as ARM shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, indicating investor recognition of its long-term growth potential.
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- S&P 500 Performance: The S&P 500 has been struggling to surpass the 7000 point mark.
- Historical Threshold: This round-number challenge has persisted since the index first tested this level in late October.
See More
