Novavax Shares Continue Downward Trend
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 09 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Stock Price Decline: Novavax (NVAX) shares fell 2.84% to $8.38 on Tuesday afternoon, continuing a six-session downward trend that reflects market concerns about its future performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: Between June 1 and June 8, Novavax's stock dropped approximately 18%, while the S&P 500 declined only 2.56% during the same period, indicating its relative weakness in the market.
- Analyst Ratings: According to Seeking Alpha's Quantrating system, Novavax holds a 'Hold' rating with a score of 2.58 out of 5, achieving a B+ in profitability but an F in growth, highlighting significant challenges in its growth potential.
- Business Model Transition: Although Novavax is transitioning to a royalty-based business model and generating licensing revenue through its partnership with Sanofi, analysts believe there is limited upside in the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market, with most near-term catalysts already priced into the shares.
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Analyst Views on NVAX
Wall Street analysts forecast NVAX stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 9.500
Low
6.00
Averages
10.50
High
18.00
Current: 9.500
Low
6.00
Averages
10.50
High
18.00
About NVAX
Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company. It is focused on addressing global health challenges through its vaccines and its proven technology platform, including protein-based nanoparticles and its Matrix-M adjuvant. Matrix-M can be used to create vaccines for a variety of diseases to help tackle some of the pressing health challenges. Its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant, when added to vaccines, has been shown to help induce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response. Its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology has been shown to be highly immunogenetic. Its technology platform is used in its authorized COVID-19 vaccine and the R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Its late-stage programs include a COVID-19-Influenzavaccine candidate, and an influenza vaccine candidate. R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine, a malaria vaccine developed by its partner. It provides Matrix-M adjuvant for use in various programs in preclinical and clinical stage, and preclinical investigations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novavax Shares Continue Downward Trend
- Stock Price Decline: Novavax (NVAX) shares fell 2.84% to $8.38 on Tuesday afternoon, continuing a six-session downward trend that reflects market concerns about its future performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: Between June 1 and June 8, Novavax's stock dropped approximately 18%, while the S&P 500 declined only 2.56% during the same period, indicating its relative weakness in the market.
- Analyst Ratings: According to Seeking Alpha's Quantrating system, Novavax holds a 'Hold' rating with a score of 2.58 out of 5, achieving a B+ in profitability but an F in growth, highlighting significant challenges in its growth potential.
- Business Model Transition: Although Novavax is transitioning to a royalty-based business model and generating licensing revenue through its partnership with Sanofi, analysts believe there is limited upside in the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market, with most near-term catalysts already priced into the shares.
See More
FDA Advisory Panel to Vote on COVID Vaccine Target Variant
- Vaccine Target Variant Discussion: The FDA's advisory panel is set to vote on Thursday regarding whether COVID-19 vaccines for the 2026-2027 immunization campaign should target the dominant XFG variant, despite limited data on circulating strains, which could impact vaccine efficacy and public health strategies.
- Sign of Procedural Normalcy: The lack of membership changes in the FDA advisory panel indicates a return to procedural normalcy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., following a series of vaccine policy upheavals, which may help restore public trust in vaccination efforts.
- Monitoring Data Gaps: Assessing the evolution of COVID-19 has become increasingly challenging due to declines in virologic surveillance, sequencing volumes, and timely data sharing from public health departments, as reflected in the CDC's COVID dashboard, where weekly data is currently unavailable due to low sequencing submissions, potentially delaying vaccine strategy updates.
- Variant Evolution and Vaccine Recommendations: The FDA's briefing documents highlight that since last year, the evolution of COVID variants has continued, with LP.8.1 still recommended, but the emergence of new variants like NB.1.8.1 may necessitate adjustments in targets for vaccine manufacturers to effectively respond to the evolving pandemic landscape.
See More
Multiple Companies See Significant Stock Price Gains
- CODX Stock Surge: Co-Diagnostics Inc. (CODX) saw its stock price jump nearly 80% to $9.11 on Tuesday as it advances the development of its Ebola PCR assay, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitiveness in the molecular diagnostics market.
- NRXP Regulatory Catalysts: NRx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NRXP) shares rose over 30% to $4.31, driven by the anticipation of a New Drug Application submission to the FDA, which is expected to boost the company's market share in the treatment of suicidal depression.
- ECOR Revenue Growth: electroCore Inc. (ECOR) reported a 43% revenue increase in Q1, with expectations of a 30% rise in annual revenue compared to 2025, leading to a 33.58% stock price increase, indicating strong performance in the bioelectronic medicine sector.
- OTLK Regulatory Progress: Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (OTLK) shares jumped over 29% to $0.40 following positive regulatory developments regarding LYTENAVA, with plans to resubmit the Biologics License Application in June 2026, reflecting a strategic shift in their approach to FDA engagement.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Sparks Rally in Biotech Stocks
- Impact Assessment: The recent hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has sparked a rally in the biotech sector; however, due to its transmission primarily through contact and a much lower contagion rate compared to COVID-19, the market for hantavirus vaccines may be limited, affecting the long-term profitability of related companies.
- Predicting Winners: Even if the situation worsens, it remains challenging for investors to identify which companies will successfully develop hantavirus vaccines, as historical data shows that even major pharmaceutical firms like Sanofi and Merck failed to dominate the COVID-19 vaccine market, highlighting the complexities of investment risks.
- Return on Investment Risks: Even if investors choose companies that successfully develop vaccines, market-beating returns are not guaranteed; data indicates that companies like Pfizer and Moderna, which excelled during the COVID-19 peak, have underperformed the S&P 500 since then, reflecting market uncertainties.
- Potential Investment Opportunities: Despite challenges, Moderna and Pfizer are still considered attractive vaccine manufacturers; Moderna has been working on a hantavirus vaccine and has a promising pipeline, while Pfizer's replenished pipeline and upcoming pivotal trials make it a stock worth serious consideration for long-term returns.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Sparks Volatility in Biotech Stocks
- Market Reaction: The hantavirus outbreak has triggered investor interest, leading biotech stocks like Moderna, Novavax, and Inovio to rise significantly over the past week, reflecting market sensitivity to vaccine development and speculative sentiment.
- CDC Risk Assessment: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has stated that the risk of hantavirus transmission is extremely low, emphasizing that infection requires close contact with an infected person, which alleviates some market fears and reduces panic.
- Moderna's Development Update: Moderna announced it is working on a hantavirus treatment, currently in early stages, but its stock surged due to market confidence in its mRNA platform, demonstrating ongoing investor interest in vaccine development.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite the short-term rise in biotech stocks driven by the outbreak, analysts note that these market fluctuations are sentiment-driven and do not reflect fundamentals, urging investors to be cautious and avoid following the hype blindly.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Triggers Surge in Pharma Stocks
- Pharma Stock Surge: Following the WHO's May 2 warning about the hantavirus outbreak, Moderna's stock rose 7% in premarket trading, indicating market confidence in its ability to address emerging infectious diseases.
- Research Collaboration: Moderna is conducting preclinical research on hantaviruses in collaboration with the US Army Medical Research Institute, although Evercore ISI believes this will not lead to significant revenue opportunities, it highlights the agility of its mRNA platform.
- Other Companies' Performance: Inovio Pharmaceuticals jumped 11% in early trading, while Novavax rose 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards vaccine development firms, despite limited overall market opportunities.
- Epidemic Control Status: President Trump stated that the outbreak on the cruise ship is under control, with the WHO reporting 8 confirmed cases and 3 deaths, assessing the public health risk as low, indicating the situation is manageable.
See More
Novavax Shares Continue Downward Trend
- Stock Price Decline: Novavax (NVAX) shares fell 2.84% to $8.38 on Tuesday afternoon, continuing a six-session downward trend that reflects market concerns about its future performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: Between June 1 and June 8, Novavax's stock dropped approximately 18%, while the S&P 500 declined only 2.56% during the same period, indicating its relative weakness in the market.
- Analyst Ratings: According to Seeking Alpha's Quantrating system, Novavax holds a 'Hold' rating with a score of 2.58 out of 5, achieving a B+ in profitability but an F in growth, highlighting significant challenges in its growth potential.
- Business Model Transition: Although Novavax is transitioning to a royalty-based business model and generating licensing revenue through its partnership with Sanofi, analysts believe there is limited upside in the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market, with most near-term catalysts already priced into the shares.
See More
FDA Advisory Panel to Vote on COVID Vaccine Target Variant
- Vaccine Target Variant Discussion: The FDA's advisory panel is set to vote on Thursday regarding whether COVID-19 vaccines for the 2026-2027 immunization campaign should target the dominant XFG variant, despite limited data on circulating strains, which could impact vaccine efficacy and public health strategies.
- Sign of Procedural Normalcy: The lack of membership changes in the FDA advisory panel indicates a return to procedural normalcy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., following a series of vaccine policy upheavals, which may help restore public trust in vaccination efforts.
- Monitoring Data Gaps: Assessing the evolution of COVID-19 has become increasingly challenging due to declines in virologic surveillance, sequencing volumes, and timely data sharing from public health departments, as reflected in the CDC's COVID dashboard, where weekly data is currently unavailable due to low sequencing submissions, potentially delaying vaccine strategy updates.
- Variant Evolution and Vaccine Recommendations: The FDA's briefing documents highlight that since last year, the evolution of COVID variants has continued, with LP.8.1 still recommended, but the emergence of new variants like NB.1.8.1 may necessitate adjustments in targets for vaccine manufacturers to effectively respond to the evolving pandemic landscape.
See More
Multiple Companies See Significant Stock Price Gains
- CODX Stock Surge: Co-Diagnostics Inc. (CODX) saw its stock price jump nearly 80% to $9.11 on Tuesday as it advances the development of its Ebola PCR assay, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitiveness in the molecular diagnostics market.
- NRXP Regulatory Catalysts: NRx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NRXP) shares rose over 30% to $4.31, driven by the anticipation of a New Drug Application submission to the FDA, which is expected to boost the company's market share in the treatment of suicidal depression.
- ECOR Revenue Growth: electroCore Inc. (ECOR) reported a 43% revenue increase in Q1, with expectations of a 30% rise in annual revenue compared to 2025, leading to a 33.58% stock price increase, indicating strong performance in the bioelectronic medicine sector.
- OTLK Regulatory Progress: Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (OTLK) shares jumped over 29% to $0.40 following positive regulatory developments regarding LYTENAVA, with plans to resubmit the Biologics License Application in June 2026, reflecting a strategic shift in their approach to FDA engagement.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Sparks Rally in Biotech Stocks
- Impact Assessment: The recent hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has sparked a rally in the biotech sector; however, due to its transmission primarily through contact and a much lower contagion rate compared to COVID-19, the market for hantavirus vaccines may be limited, affecting the long-term profitability of related companies.
- Predicting Winners: Even if the situation worsens, it remains challenging for investors to identify which companies will successfully develop hantavirus vaccines, as historical data shows that even major pharmaceutical firms like Sanofi and Merck failed to dominate the COVID-19 vaccine market, highlighting the complexities of investment risks.
- Return on Investment Risks: Even if investors choose companies that successfully develop vaccines, market-beating returns are not guaranteed; data indicates that companies like Pfizer and Moderna, which excelled during the COVID-19 peak, have underperformed the S&P 500 since then, reflecting market uncertainties.
- Potential Investment Opportunities: Despite challenges, Moderna and Pfizer are still considered attractive vaccine manufacturers; Moderna has been working on a hantavirus vaccine and has a promising pipeline, while Pfizer's replenished pipeline and upcoming pivotal trials make it a stock worth serious consideration for long-term returns.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Sparks Volatility in Biotech Stocks
- Market Reaction: The hantavirus outbreak has triggered investor interest, leading biotech stocks like Moderna, Novavax, and Inovio to rise significantly over the past week, reflecting market sensitivity to vaccine development and speculative sentiment.
- CDC Risk Assessment: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has stated that the risk of hantavirus transmission is extremely low, emphasizing that infection requires close contact with an infected person, which alleviates some market fears and reduces panic.
- Moderna's Development Update: Moderna announced it is working on a hantavirus treatment, currently in early stages, but its stock surged due to market confidence in its mRNA platform, demonstrating ongoing investor interest in vaccine development.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite the short-term rise in biotech stocks driven by the outbreak, analysts note that these market fluctuations are sentiment-driven and do not reflect fundamentals, urging investors to be cautious and avoid following the hype blindly.
See More
Hantavirus Outbreak Triggers Surge in Pharma Stocks
- Pharma Stock Surge: Following the WHO's May 2 warning about the hantavirus outbreak, Moderna's stock rose 7% in premarket trading, indicating market confidence in its ability to address emerging infectious diseases.
- Research Collaboration: Moderna is conducting preclinical research on hantaviruses in collaboration with the US Army Medical Research Institute, although Evercore ISI believes this will not lead to significant revenue opportunities, it highlights the agility of its mRNA platform.
- Other Companies' Performance: Inovio Pharmaceuticals jumped 11% in early trading, while Novavax rose 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards vaccine development firms, despite limited overall market opportunities.
- Epidemic Control Status: President Trump stated that the outbreak on the cruise ship is under control, with the WHO reporting 8 confirmed cases and 3 deaths, assessing the public health risk as low, indicating the situation is manageable.
See More
