Novartis' Vanrafia Trial Results Show Significant Kidney Function Improvement
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVS?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Clinical Trial Results: Novartis' Vanrafia demonstrated significant kidney function improvement in the phase 3 trial for IgA nephropathy, with a 2.59 mL/min/1.73 m² increase in eGFR compared to placebo at the end of treatment, indicating its potential as a foundational therapy.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval from the FDA last April for proteinuria reduction in IgA nephropathy patients and has recently been granted similar approval in China, highlighting its global market potential.
- Market Performance: Novartis reported a core net income of $17.41 billion for full-year 2025, with earnings per share of $8.98, reflecting an increase from $15.76 billion and $7.81 per share in 2024, showcasing strong performance in drug development and sales.
- Future Plans: Novartis intends to seek traditional approval for Vanrafia this year, further solidifying its market position in kidney disease treatment and laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
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Analyst Views on NVS
Wall Street analysts forecast NVS stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 165.380
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
Current: 165.380
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
About NVS
Novartis AG is a Switzerland-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets branded and generic prescription drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), biosimilars and ophthalmic products. The Company uses science and digital technologies for treatments in the disease areas of immunology, dermatology, cancer, ophthalmology, neuroscience, respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism. The business activities of the Company are divided into two segments: Innovative Medicines, which includes innovative patent-protected prescription medicines for blood pressure, cancer and other ailments, and Sandoz, which includes generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Complementary Expertise: This partnership leverages Unnatural Products' AI-enhanced macrocycle platform alongside Novartis' global expertise in drug development and commercialization, which is expected to accelerate the development of new therapies.
- Clinical Development Responsibility: Novartis will lead the clinical trials, production, and commercialization of the products, while Unnatural Products will receive up to $100 million in upfront and pre-IND milestone payments, ensuring liquidity during the project's early stages.
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- Regulatory Progress: Novartis has submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the U.S. FDA for remibrutinib's approval in symptomatic dermographism, enhancing its market position in urticaria treatment.
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- Poor Market Performance: As of February 13, 2026, Sprouts Farmers Market shares traded at $68.96, reflecting a 60.9% drop over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 73 percentage points, highlighting a decline in the company's competitive position.
- Portfolio Adjustment: The Sprouts Farmers Market position represented 1.02% of Promethos Capital's AUM, and following the liquidation, the fund's top five holdings shifted to include Taiwan Semiconductor and Novartis, indicating a strategic pivot towards other sectors.
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- Emerging Market Potential: Emerging market stocks are expected to return 12.8% annually, primarily supported by robust earnings growth in China and India, highlighting the significance and appeal of these markets in the global economy.
- Vanguard ETF Advantages: The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF boasts an expense ratio of just 0.06%, significantly lower than the average 0.81% for similar funds, providing investors with a cost-effective avenue for European stock exposure, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
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See More
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- Market Sentiment Recovery: The rise in health care stocks may be correlated with a broader market recovery trend, as investors reassess the investment value of the health care sector after recent volatility, indicating optimism about future growth potential.
- Increased Investor Attention: With ongoing innovations and policy support in the health care industry, investor attention towards health care stocks has significantly increased, potentially attracting more capital into the sector and driving stock prices higher.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: The growth potential and stability of the health care sector make it attractive amid economic uncertainties, leading investors to view it as a safe haven, further propelling the upward trend in health care stocks.
See More
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- Study Overview: Novartis's ALIGN study indicates that Vanrafia (atrasentan) slows the decline of kidney function in IgA nephropathy patients, with a clinically meaningful eGFR change of 2.39 ml/min/1.73m² compared to placebo, highlighting its potential in chronic kidney disease management.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval in April 2025 in the U.S. and China for reducing proteinuria in IgAN patients, with Novartis planning to submit for traditional approval in 2026 to further validate its clinical benefits.
- Long-Term Follow-Up Advantage: The ALIGN study provides the longest follow-up period in pivotal Phase 3 studies for IgAN, ensuring a thorough assessment of Vanrafia's long-term effects, with safety consistent with previous findings, bolstering confidence in its market prospects.
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See More
