Novartis' Vanrafia Trial Results Show Significant Kidney Function Improvement
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVS?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Clinical Trial Results: Novartis' Vanrafia demonstrated significant kidney function improvement in the phase 3 trial for IgA nephropathy, with a 2.59 mL/min/1.73 m² increase in eGFR compared to placebo at the end of treatment, indicating its potential as a foundational therapy.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval from the FDA last April for proteinuria reduction in IgA nephropathy patients and has recently been granted similar approval in China, highlighting its global market potential.
- Market Performance: Novartis reported a core net income of $17.41 billion for full-year 2025, with earnings per share of $8.98, reflecting an increase from $15.76 billion and $7.81 per share in 2024, showcasing strong performance in drug development and sales.
- Future Plans: Novartis intends to seek traditional approval for Vanrafia this year, further solidifying its market position in kidney disease treatment and laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
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Analyst Views on NVS
Wall Street analysts forecast NVS stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 155.080
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
Current: 155.080
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
About NVS
Novartis AG is a Switzerland-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets branded and generic prescription drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), biosimilars and ophthalmic products. The Company uses science and digital technologies for treatments in the disease areas of immunology, dermatology, cancer, ophthalmology, neuroscience, respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism. The business activities of the Company are divided into two segments: Innovative Medicines, which includes innovative patent-protected prescription medicines for blood pressure, cancer and other ailments, and Sandoz, which includes generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Proteinuria Improvement: Over two years, 40.7% of patients on Fabhalta achieved the target of less than 1g/g proteinuria in 24-hour urine collections, significantly outperforming the 23.7% in the placebo group, highlighting Fabhalta's potential in enhancing kidney health.
- FDA Priority Review: Fabhalta has received priority review from the FDA based on its novel mechanism of action and robust data, which is expected to provide more effective treatment options for IgAN patients and further solidify Novartis's leadership in the kidney disease sector.
- Safety Assessment: The safety profile of Fabhalta over two years was consistent with previous findings, with low rates of adverse events comparable to placebo, establishing a solid foundation for its long-term use and enhancing patient confidence in the treatment.
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- Therapeutic Potential: Exl-111, a next-generation anti-IgE antibody currently in phase I trials, could significantly broaden Novartis' market reach across high-value indications such as food allergies and chronic urticaria if clinical data validate early findings.
- Enhanced Allergy Portfolio: This acquisition complements Novartis' existing allergy product line, particularly the co-promoted Xolair with Roche, further solidifying its deep expertise in IgE biology and supporting long-term growth in the immunology sector.
- Market Performance and Outlook: Novartis shares have risen 33% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 10.1%, and despite facing generic competition for key drugs, the company is banking on key growth drivers like Kisqali and Kesimpta to support revenue growth.
See More
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- New Therapy Development: Excellergy's Exl-111, a Phase 1 anti-IgE antibody, aims to surpass conventional therapies by dissociating receptor-bound IgE, potentially offering faster and deeper suppression of allergic pathways, which could improve symptom control for food allergies, chronic urticaria, and allergic asthma.
- Support from Preclinical Data: Fiona Marshall, President of Biomedical Research at Novartis, highlighted that Exl-111 has shown promising results in preclinical and early clinical data, supporting its potential for stronger disease control and more convenient dosing, thereby enhancing Novartis's treatment options in allergic diseases.
- Market Performance: Novartis's stock has traded between $97.72 and $170.46 over the past year, closing at $149.70 on Thursday with a 0.70% increase, although it dipped slightly to $149.38 in pre-market trading, reflecting a positive market reaction to the acquisition news.
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