NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG Project 67.8% Complete
Developments: Construction and Commissioning - Under the engineering, procurement, and construction ("EPC") contracts with Bechtel Energy, as of March 2026: The overall project completion percentage for Trains 1 and 2 and the common facilities at the Rio Grande LNG Facility was 67.8%. Early electrical commissioning of Train 1 continues, and we expect first gas into the Rio Grande LNG Facility in the second half of 2026 and first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027. Strategic and Commercial - In early 2026, we began the marketing of early cargoes that we expect to produce in 2027 and 2028 prior to the commencement of our long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements. In February 2026, we entered into LNG sales agreements for the sale of over 175 TBtu of LNG on a free-on-board basis, with fixed liquefaction fees that are expected to achieve a cargo margin, calculated as the FOB LNG sales price less our expected costs of natural gas feedstock and fuel, of over $3.00 per MMBtu. This volume represents 33% of our expected portfolio volumes from 2027 through early 2029. NextDecade is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility on the north shore of the Brownsville Ship Channel in south Texas. Construction commenced on Phase 1 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility in July 2023, on Train 4 in September 2025, and on Train 5 in October 2025, in each case following a positive final investment decision and the closing of project financing by the Company's subsidiaries. Construction will be completed by Bechtel under fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey EPC contracts, and the liquefaction trains will utilize Honeywell AP-C3MR liquefaction technology, which is a predominant liquefaction technology utilized globally.
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- Share Acquisition: Ripple Effect Asset Management disclosed a purchase of 739,723 shares of NextDecade in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $4.21 million, indicating confidence in the company despite its underperformance in the market.
- Holding Position: Following this acquisition, Ripple Effect's total holdings in NextDecade rose to 1,339,723 shares, with the value increasing by $7.10 million due to stock price changes, reflecting investor expectations for future growth.
- Project Progress: NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG project is progressing well, with Trains 1 and 2 nearly 68% complete, and first gas expected to enter the facility in the second half of 2026, followed by first LNG production in the first half of 2027.
- Future Potential: The company has signed agreements for over 175 TBtu of LNG expected to be delivered in 2027 and 2028, projected to generate margins exceeding $3.00 per million British Thermal Units, showcasing the potential for future profitability.
- Rating Upgrade: Citi initiated coverage on NextDecade (NEXT) with a Buy rating and an $11 price target, indicating that the stock provides exposure to one of the last large-scale greenfield LNG export facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast, with U.S. LNG expected to become an increasingly sought-after commodity.
- Demand Premium Outlook: Analyst Spiro Dounis noted that extended outages in the Middle East are likely to create a demand premium for U.S. LNG in the near to medium term, suggesting significant growth potential for the industry, particularly for NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG project.
- Future Growth Potential: The current backlog at Rio Grande LNG positions NextDecade to potentially become a top four U.S. LNG exporter by the early 2030s, with the analyst believing that expansion could significantly enhance the company's market valuation.
- Profitability Enhancement: Dounis estimates that if NextDecade proceeds with Rio Grande's Train 6, the net present value could be worth $3 per share, representing over 30% accretion from current levels, while the project could drive more than 50% EBITDA upside for NextDecade.
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- Altria Stock Recommendation: Altria Group is advised to reduce holdings as analysts note its stock has surged too quickly, suggesting investors consider locking in some profits to mitigate risk.
- NextDecade's Outlook: NextDecade is viewed as having potential in LNG demand, although analysts maintain a cautious stance on its future performance, recommending investors to remain on the sidelines for now.
- Construction Progress: As of March 2026, the overall project completion percentage for Trains 1 and 2 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility stands at 67.8%, with engineering at 98.4% and procurement at 94.3%, indicating that the project is progressing ahead of schedule and within budget, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the global LNG market.
- Electrical Commissioning Ongoing: Early electrical commissioning of Train 1 is underway, with expectations to introduce first gas into the facility in the second half of 2026 and achieve first LNG production in the first half of 2027, which will generate significant revenue streams for the company.
- Marketing Initiated: In early 2026, NextDecade began marketing early cargoes expected to be produced in 2027 and 2028, having signed LNG sales agreements for over 175 TBtu, with fixed liquefaction fees projected to achieve cargo margins exceeding $3.00 per MMBtu, further solidifying the company's market position.
- Expansion Plans Advancing: The company is advancing the development of Trains 6 through 8, expected to add approximately 18 MTPA of liquefaction capacity, and plans to file a complete application for Train 6 with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission before the end of Q2 2026, demonstrating strong confidence in future growth.

U.S. Companies' Response: U.S. companies have reduced their operations following Iran's announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz Accessibility: Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial shipping during the duration of the Lebanon ceasefire.










