Lucid Group Faces Financial Challenges as Stock Plummets 87%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy LCID?
Source: Fool
- Market Environment Deterioration: Lucid Group went public via SPAC in 2021, but its stock has since plummeted over 87%, reflecting severe volatility in the EV market and declining investor confidence.
- Concerning Financials: As of the first three quarters of 2025, Lucid reported a loss of $8.50 per diluted share, coupled with high cash burn and debt pressures, indicating vulnerability in the highly competitive EV sector.
- Production Target Challenges: Lucid delivered nearly 4,100 vehicles in Q3, with an annual target of 18,000, necessitating 7,500 deliveries in Q4, which poses significant pressure and could impact future market performance.
- Collaborative Investment Outlook: Despite challenges, Uber invested $300 million in Lucid in July to develop robotaxis, planning to roll out over 20,000 units in the next six years, indicating recognition of Lucid's long-term potential.
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Analyst Views on LCID
Wall Street analysts forecast LCID stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LCID is 16.73 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 30.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
8 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 9.530
Low
10.00
Averages
16.73
High
30.00
Current: 9.530
Low
10.00
Averages
16.73
High
30.00
About LCID
Lucid Group, Inc. is a technology company, which designs, engineers, and manufactures electric vehicles (EVs), EV powertrains, and battery systems in-house using its own equipment and factories. It sells vehicles directly to consumers through its retail sales network and through direct online sales. Its vehicles include Lucid Air and Lucid Gravity. Lucid Air is an advanced car, featuring powertrain technology. It offers 420 miles of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-estimated range, with an 84-kWh battery pack. The Lucid Air Sapphire is the highest-performance version of the Lucid Air, boasting 1,234 horsepower from three motors, 427 miles of an EPA-estimated range (when equipped with standard wheel covers). The Lucid Gravity provides the interior space and practicality of a full-size SUV within the exterior footprint of a mid-size SUV. It provides space for up to seven adults. It has engineered the Lucid Gravity to deliver up to 450 miles of EPA-estimated range.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Share Decline: The global market share of U.S. legacy automakers has dropped from 21.4% in 2019 to an estimated 15.7% in 2025, indicating a severe challenge posed by the robust growth of Chinese EV manufacturers.
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- Rise of Chinese Brands: Chinese EV sales skyrocketed from approximately 572,300 units in 2020 to 4.95 million in 2025, with a nearly 70% increase in global market share over five years, showcasing the strong expansion capabilities of Chinese brands in the global market.
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- Crisis in U.S. Auto Industry: U.S. manufacturers like Stellantis announced a $26 billion restructuring charge due to missteps in the EV transition, leading to a 20% stock plunge, reflecting a decline in competitiveness in the EV market that could impact long-term profitability.
- EV Sales Comparison: Tesla has been surpassed by Chinese brand BYD in European sales, indicating a waning appeal for Tesla in the global EV market, while Chinese brands have increased their market share by nearly 70% over the past five years, posing a threat to U.S. markets.
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- Market Competition Analysis: In the U.S. EV market, Tesla holds a commanding 43.1% market share, while Rivian's sales are less than half of second-place Chevrolet's, highlighting its insufficient market penetration amid fierce competition.
- New Model Launch: Rivian plans to introduce the more affordable R2 SUV starting at $45,000, aimed at attracting a broader consumer base, yet the high price of its R1 model continues to limit market acceptance.
- Gross Margin Challenges: Although Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3, its gross margin stands at a mere 2%, significantly lower than Tesla's 17%, indicating a pressing need for improvement in profitability.
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- New Model Launch: The company plans to introduce the R2 SUV starting at $45,000, aimed at expanding its customer base and attracting more consumers amid intensifying competition in the EV market.
- Financial Condition: Although revenue hit $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, a 78% increase, the company still reported a $2.75 billion loss for the first nine months, highlighting its fragile profitability with a gross margin of only 2%.
- Market Outlook: The end of the EV tax credit has dampened overall EV sales in 2025, leaving Rivian's future uncertain; while it has potential, the investment risks remain high.
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- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Rockwell Automation's quarterly revenue to reach $2.08 billion, up from $1.88 billion a year ago, showcasing the company's strong performance and recovery in market demand.
- Deepened Collaboration: On January 21, Rockwell Automation announced an enhanced partnership with Lucid Group to support the automaker's expanding manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to strengthen both companies' competitive positions in the electric vehicle manufacturing sector.
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- Share Reduction Details: Wolverine Asset Management sold 3,522,200 shares of Lucid in Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of approximately $56.28 million, indicating a decrease in confidence regarding Lucid's future prospects.
- Current Holdings: As of December 31, 2025, Wolverine still holds 16,778,500 shares of Lucid, suggesting that despite the reduction, there remains a significant position, reflecting some belief in Lucid's potential value.
- Market Competition Insight: Rivian, a competitor to Lucid, is significantly ahead in electric SUV sales, and Wolverine's concurrent holdings in Rivian may indicate a lack of confidence in Lucid's market performance.
- Financial Strain: Lucid is struggling with sales volume and relies heavily on support from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which has expressed continued backing, yet investors are awaiting improvements in Lucid's fundamentals for financial support.
See More
U.S. Electric Vehicle Industry Faces Existential Crisis
- Market Share Decline: The global market share of U.S. legacy automakers has dropped from 21.4% in 2019 to an estimated 15.7% in 2025, indicating a severe challenge posed by the robust growth of Chinese EV manufacturers.
- Massive Loss Warning: Stellantis disclosed a $26 billion charge due to a business overhaul, resulting in a more than 20% plunge in its stock, reflecting overestimated expectations regarding the pace of the energy transition and weak market demand.
- Rise of Chinese Brands: Chinese EV sales skyrocketed from approximately 572,300 units in 2020 to 4.95 million in 2025, with a nearly 70% increase in global market share over five years, showcasing the strong expansion capabilities of Chinese brands in the global market.
- Impact of U.S. Policies: U.S. automakers have invested over $27 billion in EV development, but due to policy shifts and declining market demand, many companies are scaling back their EV plans, potentially leading to a long-term decline in competitiveness.
See More
Chinese Automotive Industry Surges Ahead Globally
- Market Share Shift: Since 2023, the Chinese automotive industry has become the largest vehicle exporter globally, with electric vehicle sales projected to reach 4.95 million by 2025, indicating strong growth that poses significant pressure on traditional U.S. automakers.
- Crisis in U.S. Auto Industry: U.S. manufacturers like Stellantis announced a $26 billion restructuring charge due to missteps in the EV transition, leading to a 20% stock plunge, reflecting a decline in competitiveness in the EV market that could impact long-term profitability.
- EV Sales Comparison: Tesla has been surpassed by Chinese brand BYD in European sales, indicating a waning appeal for Tesla in the global EV market, while Chinese brands have increased their market share by nearly 70% over the past five years, posing a threat to U.S. markets.
- Future Outlook: Chinese EV sales are expected to reach 6.5 million units by 2030, and as Chinese brands expand globally, U.S. automakers will face intensified competition, particularly in mature markets.
See More
Rivian Automotive Faces Financial Challenges Amid Growth Potential
- Sales Performance Review: Rivian's revenue reached $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 78% increase year-over-year; however, the company still reported a $2.75 billion loss for the first nine months, indicating ongoing financial struggles.
- Market Competition Analysis: In the U.S. EV market, Tesla holds a commanding 43.1% market share, while Rivian's sales are less than half of second-place Chevrolet's, highlighting its insufficient market penetration amid fierce competition.
- New Model Launch: Rivian plans to introduce the more affordable R2 SUV starting at $45,000, aimed at attracting a broader consumer base, yet the high price of its R1 model continues to limit market acceptance.
- Gross Margin Challenges: Although Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3, its gross margin stands at a mere 2%, significantly lower than Tesla's 17%, indicating a pressing need for improvement in profitability.
See More
Rivian Launches More Affordable R2 Model
- Sales Performance: Rivian ranked sixth in EV sales for 2025, surpassing Honda but still trailing Chevrolet, indicating limited market share despite some growth in sales figures.
- New Model Launch: The company plans to introduce the R2 SUV starting at $45,000, aimed at expanding its customer base and attracting more consumers amid intensifying competition in the EV market.
- Financial Condition: Although revenue hit $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, a 78% increase, the company still reported a $2.75 billion loss for the first nine months, highlighting its fragile profitability with a gross margin of only 2%.
- Market Outlook: The end of the EV tax credit has dampened overall EV sales in 2025, leaving Rivian's future uncertain; while it has potential, the investment risks remain high.
See More
Rockwell Automation Q1 Earnings Preview
- Earnings Release Announcement: Rockwell Automation is set to release its Q1 earnings on February 5, with analysts expecting earnings per share of $2.48, a significant increase from $1.83 in the same quarter last year, indicating improved profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Rockwell Automation's quarterly revenue to reach $2.08 billion, up from $1.88 billion a year ago, showcasing the company's strong performance and recovery in market demand.
- Deepened Collaboration: On January 21, Rockwell Automation announced an enhanced partnership with Lucid Group to support the automaker's expanding manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to strengthen both companies' competitive positions in the electric vehicle manufacturing sector.
- Stock Price Movement: Despite the positive outlook, Rockwell Automation's stock fell 0.1% to close at $429.84 on Wednesday, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
See More
Wolverine Asset Management Reduces Lucid Holdings
- Share Reduction Details: Wolverine Asset Management sold 3,522,200 shares of Lucid in Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of approximately $56.28 million, indicating a decrease in confidence regarding Lucid's future prospects.
- Current Holdings: As of December 31, 2025, Wolverine still holds 16,778,500 shares of Lucid, suggesting that despite the reduction, there remains a significant position, reflecting some belief in Lucid's potential value.
- Market Competition Insight: Rivian, a competitor to Lucid, is significantly ahead in electric SUV sales, and Wolverine's concurrent holdings in Rivian may indicate a lack of confidence in Lucid's market performance.
- Financial Strain: Lucid is struggling with sales volume and relies heavily on support from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which has expressed continued backing, yet investors are awaiting improvements in Lucid's fundamentals for financial support.
See More
