Should You Buy Lucid Group Inc (LCID) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
11.330
1 Day change
3.85%
52 Week Range
35.900
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
LCID is not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. The near-term technicals are improving, but options positioning is skewed bearish (puts > calls), Wall Street has been cutting targets with mostly Neutral/Hold-to-Underweight views, and the business still shows severe negative gross margins and large losses. With price sitting just below a key resistance zone (~11.82), the risk/reward favors avoiding new longs (or trimming) rather than chasing.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Momentum has turned mildly positive, but the stock is approaching overhead resistance.
- MACD: Histogram +0.151 and expanding -> bullish momentum building.
- RSI(6): ~59 -> neutral-to-slightly bullish; not overbought, but also not a deep-value/oversold entry.
- Moving averages: Converging -> transition phase; not a clean, established uptrend.
- Key levels: Pivot 10.809 (important near-term support). Resistance at R1 11.822, then R2 12.447. Current price 11.255 is closer to resistance than support, meaning upside is more "crowded" unless it breaks above ~11.82.
- Pattern-based forward odds: weak edge (next day -0.43% expected; next week +1.22%; next month -3.11%), suggesting rallies may fade.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bearish-to-cautious. Put open interest exceeds calls (1.3) and put volume exceeds calls (1.19), implying traders are paying up for downside protection or positioning for weakness.
Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~86.6 vs historical vol ~57.5 -> options are pricing elevated moves; IV rank ~55 / percentile ~48.6 suggests IV is not at an extreme, but still high in absolute terms.
Liquidity/flow note: Today’s options volume is well below the 30-day average (~31.7% of avg), so the bearish tilt is more about positioning than a fresh surge of conviction today.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
- Product/brand validation: Lucid Air Grand Touring achieved winter-range records (520 km in NAF Winter Test; extreme cold reliability), reinforcing technology leadership narrative.
- Potential technical continuation if it clears resistance at ~11.82 and holds above the 10.81 pivot.
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-25 after hours) can act as an event catalyst if guidance/liquidity surprises to the upside.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Capital needs/dilution risk: Street commentary continues to expect additional capital requirements; prior convertible financing highlights ongoing funding sensitivity.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $336.6M, +68.26% YoY (strong growth off a small base).
- Net income: -$1.034B (still extremely negative; only modest improvement vs last year).
- EPS: -3.31, worsened YoY (-19.07%).
- Gross margin: -86.05% (deeply negative and deteriorating YoY), signaling the core business is still losing substantial money per unit.
Bottom line: Top-line growth is improving, but the margin structure is not; fundamentals do not support an aggressive "buy now" stance for quick upside.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear deterioration. Multiple firms cut price targets and stayed Neutral/Hold; Morgan Stanley downgraded to Underweight and slashed PT to $10 (from $30). Baird also reduced PT (to $14) while keeping Neutral. Overall, Wall Street is acknowledging strong tech/products but remains concerned about demand/scale, sustained losses, and future capital needs.
Wall Street pros: technology leadership; product quality (Air/Gravity); midsize platform viewed as a potential scaling unlock longer-term.
Wall Street cons: EV demand softness into 2026, ongoing cash burn/need for capital, dilution/financing overhang, and persistently negative margins.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show no significant recent directional trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast LCID stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LCID is 16.73 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LCID stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LCID is 16.73 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
8 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 10.910
Low
10
Averages
16.73
High
30
Current: 10.910
Low
10
Averages
16.73
High
30
Baird
Ben Kallo
Neutral
downgrade
$17 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Baird
Ben Kallo
Price Target
$17 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered the firm's price target on Lucid Group to $14 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the mixed Q4 deliveries report however its full-year production was in-line with guidance.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Underweight
downgrade
$30 -> $10
2025-12-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$30 -> $10
2025-12-08
downgrade
Equal Weight -> Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Lucid Group to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $10, down from $30, following a change in analysts. The firm adjusted ratings in the autos and shared mobility group as part of its 2026 outlook. Morgan Stanley is "leaning more cautious" into next year, saying the electric vehicle "winter" will sustain through 2026. This is counterbalanced by a "moderately more positive" outlook on internal combustion engines and hybrids, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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