Look Under The Hood: RWK Has 11% Upside
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 16 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TMHC?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Revenue ETF (RWK) has an implied analyst target price of $133.38, indicating an 11.43% upside from its current trading price of $119.70.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings such as Taylor Morrison Home Corp, Blackbaud, Inc., and Hancock Whitney Corp show potential upsides of 14.90%, 12.78%, and 12.50% respectively, raising questions about the validity of analysts' targets amidst market conditions.
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Analyst Views on TMHC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMHC stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 65.700
Low
62.00
Averages
77.80
High
95.00
Current: 65.700
Low
62.00
Averages
77.80
High
95.00
About TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is a homebuilder and developer. The Company's principal business is residential homebuilding and the development of lifestyle communities with operations across 12 states. The Company provides an assortment of homes across a range of price points to appeal to an array of consumer groups. It designs, builds and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes in traditionally high growth markets for entry level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers. It operates under various brand names, including Taylor Morrison, Darling Homes Collection by Taylor Morrison, and Esplanade. It also has a Build-to-Rent homebuilding business which operates under the Yardly brand name. It owns and operates commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services and title services. The Company, through its insurance agency, provides homeowner’s insurance policies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Taylor Morrison Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Market Challenges
- Strong Delivery Performance: In 2025, Taylor Morrison delivered nearly 13,000 homes, achieving a 23% adjusted gross margin despite challenging market conditions, demonstrating the company's competitive strength and adaptability in the industry.
- Robust Financial Results: The fourth quarter net income was $174 million, with a diluted earnings per share of $1.76, and an adjusted net income of $188 million, indicating significant achievements in cost control and operational optimization.
- Strategic Shift Focus: The company is limiting land investments in non-core markets while concentrating on move-up and resort lifestyle customers, with plans to open over 100 new communities in 2026 to adapt to market changes and enhance customer satisfaction.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Taylor Morrison expects to deliver around 11,000 homes in 2026, with an average closing price of approximately $580,000 in the first quarter; despite facing inventory pressures, management maintains a cautiously optimistic view on long-term growth, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation.
See More
Taylor Morrison Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Taylor Morrison reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.91, exceeding expectations by $0.17, which reflects strong profitability and boosts investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Revenue Performance: Despite an 11% year-over-year decline in revenue to $2.1 billion, the figure surpassed expectations by $150 million, indicating resilience amid market challenges and potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Home Closings and Margins: Home closings generated $1.96 billion from 3,285 closings at an average sales price of $596,000, with a gross margin of 21.8%, showcasing the company's competitive edge and profitability in the high-end market segment.
- Sales Orders and Land Control: The company reported net sales orders of 2,499 homes and controlled 78,835 homebuilding lots, with 54% off-balance-sheet control, reflecting effective land resource management that secures future development opportunities.
See More
Taylor Morrison Reports Strong Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results
- Q4 Performance: In Q4 2025, Taylor Morrison reported a net income of $174 million, or $1.76 per diluted share, with adjusted net income at $188 million, showcasing the company's resilience and profitability amid challenging market conditions.
- Annual Delivery Performance: The company delivered nearly 13,000 homes in 2025, achieving an adjusted home closings gross margin of 23.0%, indicating effective strategies in cost control and margin enhancement, which drove a 13% return on equity.
- Stock Buyback Program: The Board approved an increase in the stock repurchase program to $1 billion, set to expire in 2027, reflecting the company's confidence in future market conditions and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Market Outlook: The company anticipates closing approximately 2,200 homes in Q1 2026, with an average closing price of around $580,000, indicating cautious optimism regarding market demand as the spring selling season approaches.
See More
Taylor Morrison to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Taylor Morrison is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.74, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 24.3%, indicating potential profitability challenges ahead.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $1.95 billion, down 17.4% year-over-year, which suggests a weakening market demand that could adversely affect the company's growth trajectory.
- Historical Performance Metrics: Over the past two years, Taylor Morrison has surpassed EPS estimates 88% of the time and has achieved a 100% success rate in beating revenue estimates, showcasing the company's reliability in financial forecasting.
- Market Sentiment: Despite current challenges, the market finds Taylor Morrison's valuation attractive, and signs of order rebound may provide a positive outlook for growth in 2026.
See More
Lennar and Taylor Morrison Plan One Million 'Trump Homes' Development
- Housing Development Initiative: Lennar and Taylor Morrison are reportedly working on a plan to develop one million 'Trump Homes' in response to President Trump's affordable housing initiative, which is expected to significantly increase housing supply in the market.
- Innovative Financing Model: The proposal involves financing from private investors, with initial plans to rent these 'entry-level' homes to tenants, allowing rent payments to convert into down payments after three years, thereby lowering the barriers to homeownership.
- Market Scale Expectations: The initiative aims to deliver $250 billion worth of housing, and while initial losses will be borne by private investors, the project's scale could expand if more builders join, potentially driving industry growth.
- Policy Context: The proposal was pitched to the Trump administration in 2025, and although finer details are still being refined, this move indicates the government's focus on the housing market, which could influence future housing policies and market dynamics.
See More
Tech Selloff Drags Down Market
- Market Downward Pressure: On Tuesday, a selloff in technology stocks led to a decline of over 1% in the S&P 500 and approximately 2% in the Nasdaq, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the future performance of AI software companies, which in turn affected financial stocks.
- Earnings Expectations Impact: Eli Lilly's shares fell nearly 4% on Tuesday, primarily due to disappointing 2026 guidance from its competitor Novo Nordisk, causing market concerns about Lilly's upcoming earnings report and signaling potential disappointment.
- Housing Market Recovery Hopes: Housing-related stocks rallied on a report suggesting a plan to make entry-level homes more affordable, although a White House official indicated that the Trump administration is not actively considering the plan, it still highlights the potential for a housing market revival.
- Investor Focus on Earnings: After Tuesday's close, several companies including AMD, Chipotle, and Uber are set to release earnings reports, with the market closely monitoring these announcements to gauge signs of economic recovery and industry outlook.
See More
Taylor Morrison Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Market Challenges
- Strong Delivery Performance: In 2025, Taylor Morrison delivered nearly 13,000 homes, achieving a 23% adjusted gross margin despite challenging market conditions, demonstrating the company's competitive strength and adaptability in the industry.
- Robust Financial Results: The fourth quarter net income was $174 million, with a diluted earnings per share of $1.76, and an adjusted net income of $188 million, indicating significant achievements in cost control and operational optimization.
- Strategic Shift Focus: The company is limiting land investments in non-core markets while concentrating on move-up and resort lifestyle customers, with plans to open over 100 new communities in 2026 to adapt to market changes and enhance customer satisfaction.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Taylor Morrison expects to deliver around 11,000 homes in 2026, with an average closing price of approximately $580,000 in the first quarter; despite facing inventory pressures, management maintains a cautiously optimistic view on long-term growth, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation.
See More
Taylor Morrison Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Taylor Morrison reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.91, exceeding expectations by $0.17, which reflects strong profitability and boosts investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Revenue Performance: Despite an 11% year-over-year decline in revenue to $2.1 billion, the figure surpassed expectations by $150 million, indicating resilience amid market challenges and potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Home Closings and Margins: Home closings generated $1.96 billion from 3,285 closings at an average sales price of $596,000, with a gross margin of 21.8%, showcasing the company's competitive edge and profitability in the high-end market segment.
- Sales Orders and Land Control: The company reported net sales orders of 2,499 homes and controlled 78,835 homebuilding lots, with 54% off-balance-sheet control, reflecting effective land resource management that secures future development opportunities.
See More
Taylor Morrison Reports Strong Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results
- Q4 Performance: In Q4 2025, Taylor Morrison reported a net income of $174 million, or $1.76 per diluted share, with adjusted net income at $188 million, showcasing the company's resilience and profitability amid challenging market conditions.
- Annual Delivery Performance: The company delivered nearly 13,000 homes in 2025, achieving an adjusted home closings gross margin of 23.0%, indicating effective strategies in cost control and margin enhancement, which drove a 13% return on equity.
- Stock Buyback Program: The Board approved an increase in the stock repurchase program to $1 billion, set to expire in 2027, reflecting the company's confidence in future market conditions and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Market Outlook: The company anticipates closing approximately 2,200 homes in Q1 2026, with an average closing price of around $580,000, indicating cautious optimism regarding market demand as the spring selling season approaches.
See More
Taylor Morrison to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Taylor Morrison is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.74, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 24.3%, indicating potential profitability challenges ahead.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $1.95 billion, down 17.4% year-over-year, which suggests a weakening market demand that could adversely affect the company's growth trajectory.
- Historical Performance Metrics: Over the past two years, Taylor Morrison has surpassed EPS estimates 88% of the time and has achieved a 100% success rate in beating revenue estimates, showcasing the company's reliability in financial forecasting.
- Market Sentiment: Despite current challenges, the market finds Taylor Morrison's valuation attractive, and signs of order rebound may provide a positive outlook for growth in 2026.
See More
Lennar and Taylor Morrison Plan One Million 'Trump Homes' Development
- Housing Development Initiative: Lennar and Taylor Morrison are reportedly working on a plan to develop one million 'Trump Homes' in response to President Trump's affordable housing initiative, which is expected to significantly increase housing supply in the market.
- Innovative Financing Model: The proposal involves financing from private investors, with initial plans to rent these 'entry-level' homes to tenants, allowing rent payments to convert into down payments after three years, thereby lowering the barriers to homeownership.
- Market Scale Expectations: The initiative aims to deliver $250 billion worth of housing, and while initial losses will be borne by private investors, the project's scale could expand if more builders join, potentially driving industry growth.
- Policy Context: The proposal was pitched to the Trump administration in 2025, and although finer details are still being refined, this move indicates the government's focus on the housing market, which could influence future housing policies and market dynamics.
See More
Tech Selloff Drags Down Market
- Market Downward Pressure: On Tuesday, a selloff in technology stocks led to a decline of over 1% in the S&P 500 and approximately 2% in the Nasdaq, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the future performance of AI software companies, which in turn affected financial stocks.
- Earnings Expectations Impact: Eli Lilly's shares fell nearly 4% on Tuesday, primarily due to disappointing 2026 guidance from its competitor Novo Nordisk, causing market concerns about Lilly's upcoming earnings report and signaling potential disappointment.
- Housing Market Recovery Hopes: Housing-related stocks rallied on a report suggesting a plan to make entry-level homes more affordable, although a White House official indicated that the Trump administration is not actively considering the plan, it still highlights the potential for a housing market revival.
- Investor Focus on Earnings: After Tuesday's close, several companies including AMD, Chipotle, and Uber are set to release earnings reports, with the market closely monitoring these announcements to gauge signs of economic recovery and industry outlook.
See More
