Regulatory Response: The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) deemed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's proposal for a consolidation fund and production quotas as non-compliant with antitrust laws, hindering the industry's 'anti-involution' efforts.
Market Impact: JPMorgan anticipates negative share price reactions but views the situation as an adjustment rather than a complete reversal of the industry's trajectory.
Potential Winners: In a worst-case scenario of chaotic involution integration, DAQO New Energy and GCL TECH are expected to emerge as the primary beneficiaries due to their strong financial positions.
Stock Ratings: JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating for DAQO New Energy and GCL TECH, setting target prices at US$38 and $1.7, respectively.
Wall Street analysts forecast 03800 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 03800 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 03800 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 03800 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 1.080
Low
Averages
High
Current: 1.080
Low
Averages
High
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$38
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
$38
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the view that the proposal by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) is a setback to the industry's 'anti-involution' initiative but is seen as an adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall development in the sector. Despite the potential for negative share price reactions, JPMorgan believes that DAQO New Energy and GCL TECH are likely to emerge as winners in this situation due to their strong financial positions and low production costs. Consequently, the broker maintained an Overweight rating for these two stocks, with target prices set at US$38 for DAQO New Energy and $1.7 for GCL TECH.
Citi
Citi Research
initiated
$1.72
2025-12-12
Reason
Citi
Citi Research
Price Target
$1.72
2025-12-12
initiated
Reason
The analyst rating for GCL TECH is based on the expectation that successful consolidation of polysilicon production capacity will lead to rising polysilicon prices. This, in turn, is anticipated to benefit GCL TECH through margin expansion and potential earnings growth, even at a 50% capacity utilization rate. Consequently, Citi Research rated GCL TECH as a Buy/High Risk, with a target price of $1.72.
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Northeast Securities
Northeast Securities
initiated
$1.5
2025-10-30
Reason
Northeast Securities
Northeast Securities
Price Target
$1.5
2025-10-30
initiated
Reason
The analyst rating of "Buy" for GCL TECH (03800.HK) by Northeast Securities is based on several key factors:
1. Turnaround in Profitability: The company reported a significant turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving an unaudited profit of approximately RMB960 million in 3Q25, which includes sale proceeds from an associated company. This marks a shift from previous losses to profitability.
2. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: The unaudited adjusted EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials business was about RMB1.41 billion in 3Q25, also indicating a recovery from losses and aligning with market expectations.
3. Positive Future Projections: The report anticipates that GCL TECH will continue to improve its financial performance, projecting net profits of -RMB992 million, +RMB1.085 billion, and RMB1.864 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively.
4. Market Positioning: The company is expected to accelerate towards a results inflection point, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities despite challenges in the industry.
5. Target Price: The target price set at $1.5 indicates a positive outlook for the stock's future performance.
Overall, the combination of improved financial results, positive future projections, and strategic positioning in the market supports the "Buy" rating.
BOCOMI
Buy
to
Buy
downgrade
2025-10-21
Reason
BOCOMI
Price Target
2025-10-21
downgrade
Buy
to
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for GCL TECH (03800.HK) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's successful turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business segment, which reported a profit in 3Q25. This improvement is attributed to the rise in polysilicon prices, driven by the "anti-involution" policy that prevents sales below cost. Despite a slight reduction in the target price from HKD1.59 to HKD1.54, the positive outlook on the company's performance supports the continued "Buy" rating.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
