Profit Expectations: JPMorgan forecasts a 29% year-over-year decline in profits for Chinese property developers, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) expected to see a 9% increase in earnings, while privately-owned enterprises (POEs) may experience a 21% drop.
Market Conditions: The deteriorating real estate market in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to contribute to the sluggish performance of developers, with policy changes and sales trends being crucial factors to watch.
Top Picks and Cautions: JPMorgan's preferred property developers include CHINA RES LAND and CHINA JINMAO, while it favors property managers like CHINA RES MIXC and GREENTOWN SER, but remains cautious on CHINA VANKE.
Net Loss Predictions: The broker expects several companies, including LONGFOR GROUP and large SOEs like CHINA OVERSEAS, to report net losses in March, with a projected 19% decrease in core net profit for major SOEs and a 27% drop in dividends per share.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00688 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00688 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00688 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00688 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 13.530
Low
Averages
High
Current: 13.530
Low
Averages
High
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$35
2026-01-21
New
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
$35
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
The article does not provide specific reasons for JPMorgan's investment ratings for the Chinese developers and managers. However, the ratings indicate a general sentiment towards the stocks, with "Overweight" suggesting a positive outlook, "Underweight" indicating a negative outlook, and "Neutral" reflecting a balanced view. The target prices and short selling data may imply market conditions and investor sentiment, but no explicit reasoning is given in the text.
UOB Kay Hian
UOB Kay Hian
Buy
downgrade
2026-01-21
New
Reason
UOB Kay Hian
UOB Kay Hian
Price Target
2026-01-21
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating from UOB Kay Hian for CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) is maintained at "Buy," despite a forecasted decline in the company's 2025 core net profit by 18.1% year-over-year. This decline is attributed to a decrease in the gross profit margin of the property development business and pressures from impairments. The company has shown strong performance in land investments, with a 33% year-over-year increase, particularly in first-tier core cities, which is a positive factor. However, the broker has lowered its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14.6%, 23.7%, and 27.4%, respectively, and has cut the target price by 9.2% to $15.14 based on net asset value, reflecting an expanded discount to net asset value.
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BofA Securities
BofA Securities
maintain
$price
2026-01-08
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$price
2026-01-08
maintain
Reason
BofA Securities maintains a non-consensus positive view on the Chinese real estate industry due to expectations of more proactive policy-making by authorities, which could create contrarian investment opportunities amid low investor positioning and mounting pressure. The firm favors companies with strong execution capabilities and anticipates that certain firms will benefit from potential consumer stimulus measures. However, it has lowered earnings forecasts and target prices for many developers due to downbeat fundamental prospects, leading to an Underperform rating for some companies.
JPMorgan
maintain
2025-12-11
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-11
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the potential for the Chinese government to provide mortgage subsidies, which could amount to RMB400 billion. However, the report emphasizes that while this policy direction is possible, it may not be sufficient to reverse the current situation in the property market unless buyer confidence in stable housing prices is established. The report also notes that the RMB400 billion figure represents only about 5% of annual new residential sales and highlights the historical inaccuracy of market rumors, which have only a 40% accuracy rate. Additionally, the mixed reactions in stock price movements—where CHINA VANKE saw a significant surge while major state-owned enterprises experienced minimal increases—suggest that investor enthusiasm regarding the policy is limited. Consequently, JPMorgan maintains its top picks in the sector, indicating a cautious outlook despite the potential for policy-driven rallies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
