Herbalife Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy HLF?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Herbalife reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.45, missing expectations by $0.03, yet revenue of $1.28 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase, exceeded forecasts by $40 million, indicating resilience in the market.
- Future Outlook: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates net sales growth of 3.0% to 7.0%, projecting between $155 million and $175 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $10 million and $20 million, showcasing optimism for future growth.
- Annual Guidance: The full-year 2026 guidance suggests a net sales increase of 1.0% to 6.0%, estimated between $670 million and $710 million, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $50 million to $80 million, reflecting confidence in market demand.
- Stock Reaction: Following the earnings release, Herbalife's stock surged by 12.76% in after-hours trading, demonstrating investor enthusiasm regarding the company's growth potential.
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Analyst Views on HLF
Wall Street analysts forecast HLF stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 15.940
Low
8.00
Averages
14.60
High
20.00
Current: 15.940
Low
8.00
Averages
14.60
High
20.00
About HLF
Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company. The Company sells weight management; targeted nutrition; energy, sports and fitness; and other nutrition products to and through a network of independent members. The Company has two geographical segments: Primary Reporting Segment (North America, Latin America, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), and Asia Pacific regions) and China. Its products are classified into five categories. The Weight Management category includes meal replacements, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss supplements, healthy snacks, and metabolism-boosting teas. The Targeted Nutrition category features functional beverages and dietary supplements. The Energy, Sports, and Fitness category consists of products that support a healthy and active lifestyle. The Outer Nutrition segment offers facial skincare, body care, and hair care products. The Literature and Promotional Items include start-up kits, sales tools, and educational materials.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Herbalife Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Herbalife is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.48, reflecting a 33.3% year-over-year increase, which could significantly boost investor confidence in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.24 billion, representing a 3.3% year-over-year growth; while this growth is modest, it indicates the company's stability in the market, potentially leading to positive future market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Herbalife has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, a strong performance record that may attract more investor attention and enhance the company's stock price.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there has been one upward revision for both EPS and revenue estimates with no downward revisions, indicating increased analyst confidence in the company's future performance, which could further drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Herbalife Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Herbalife reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.45, missing expectations by $0.03, yet revenue of $1.28 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase, exceeded forecasts by $40 million, indicating resilience in the market.
- Future Outlook: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates net sales growth of 3.0% to 7.0%, projecting between $155 million and $175 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $10 million and $20 million, showcasing optimism for future growth.
- Annual Guidance: The full-year 2026 guidance suggests a net sales increase of 1.0% to 6.0%, estimated between $670 million and $710 million, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $50 million to $80 million, reflecting confidence in market demand.
- Stock Reaction: Following the earnings release, Herbalife's stock surged by 12.76% in after-hours trading, demonstrating investor enthusiasm regarding the company's growth potential.
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Herbalife Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Herbalife is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.48, reflecting a 33.3% year-over-year increase, which could significantly boost investor confidence in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.24 billion, representing a 3.3% year-over-year growth; while this growth is modest, it indicates the company's stability in the market, potentially leading to positive future market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Herbalife has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, a strong performance record that may attract more investor attention and enhance the company's stock price.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there has been one upward revision for both EPS and revenue estimates with no downward revisions, indicating increased analyst confidence in the company's future performance, which could further drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Herbalife Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Herbalife reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.45, missing expectations by $0.03, yet revenue of $1.28 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase, exceeded forecasts by $40 million, indicating resilience in the market.
- Future Outlook: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates net sales growth of 3.0% to 7.0%, projecting between $155 million and $175 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $10 million and $20 million, showcasing optimism for future growth.
- Annual Guidance: The full-year 2026 guidance suggests a net sales increase of 1.0% to 6.0%, estimated between $670 million and $710 million, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $50 million to $80 million, reflecting confidence in market demand.
- Stock Reaction: Following the earnings release, Herbalife's stock surged by 12.76% in after-hours trading, demonstrating investor enthusiasm regarding the company's growth potential.
See More
Baupost Group's Investment Moves in Q4
- New Investment Position: Baupost Group established a new stake in Amazon during Q4, making it the fund's second-largest holding at 9.3% of assets, reflecting confidence in the e-commerce and cloud giant despite differing views from Buffett.
- Portfolio Adjustments: The fund completely exited its position in PagSeguro Digital in Q4, indicating a strategic portfolio adjustment likely based on market performance and future expectations.
- Top Holdings: As of December 31, Restaurant Brands International remains Baupost's largest holding, indicating sustained confidence in the restaurant sector, and it was also the top holding in Q3, showcasing stability.
- Market Performance Comparison: Amazon was the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven in 2025, and Baupost's investment decision may be based on optimism regarding its cloud segment growth, which will test the effectiveness of Klarman's strategy against Buffett's reduction in exposure.
See More
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- Complete Liquidation: Arena Capital Advisors disclosed on February 3, 2026, that it sold its entire position of 611,495 shares in Diebold Nixdorf for an estimated value of $34.9 million, indicating a shift in confidence regarding the stock.
- Portfolio Adjustment: Previously, Diebold Nixdorf represented 15% of Arena Capital's securities portfolio, and this liquidation aligns with a broader 31% reduction in the value of their disclosed holdings, reflecting a strategic repositioning.
- Market Performance: As of February 3, 2026, Diebold Nixdorf shares traded at $70.99, marking a 68.8% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 53.4 percentage points, showcasing its strong market position.
- Investment Strategy: Arena Capital likely acquired Diebold Nixdorf at lower prices and opted to sell now to raise cash for investments in assets with better return prospects, indicating a strategic shift in their value investment approach.
See More
Market Divergence: Tech Stocks Under Pressure
- Market Performance Divergence: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.50% to a new all-time high, while the Nasdaq fell 1.84%, indicating the pressure on tech stocks and necessitating cautious investor sentiment amid potential risks.
- Tech Sector Weight Impact: With tech stocks comprising about 30% of the S&P 500's market cap, their underperformance can drag down the overall index even when other sectors perform well, highlighting the need for investors to monitor signals of sector rotation closely.
- Consumer Staples vs. Discretionary: The recent outperformance of consumer staples (XLP) over discretionary spending (XLY) may signal economic slowdown risks, prompting investors to pay attention to how this shift affects market sentiment and investment strategies.
- Ethereum Price Decline: Ethereum has fallen below the technical support level of 2600-2800, potentially heading towards the 1650-1750 range; if it stabilizes at this level, it could represent one of the best buying opportunities in years, warranting close observation from investors.
See More
A Positive Technical Outlook for Consumer Staples Stocks in 2026
Consumer Staples Sector Performance: The consumer staples sector demonstrated renewed strength last week, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF gaining 2%.
ETF Weekly Range: The ETF finished at the top of its weekly range and closed nearly 4% above its intraweek low.
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