Greif Reports Q1 Earnings Miss with Lower Revenue
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GEF?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Miss: Greif's Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 falls short by $0.20, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company reports Q1 revenue of $994.8 million, a 2.5% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations and reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Performance Warning: With both revenue and earnings missing targets, Greif may need to reassess its market strategies to address challenges posed by the current economic environment and ensure long-term growth.
- Investor Scrutiny: Following the earnings report, investors are likely to adopt a more cautious stance regarding Greif's future performance, which could impact its stock price, especially in a climate of heightened sensitivity to profitability.
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Analyst Views on GEF
Wall Street analysts forecast GEF stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 72.760
Low
60.00
Averages
71.25
High
79.00
Current: 72.760
Low
60.00
Averages
71.25
High
79.00
About GEF
Greif, Inc. specializes in industrial packaging products and services. Its Customized Polymer Solutions segment is involved in the production and sale of a comprehensive line of polymer-based packaging products, such as plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers and small plastics. The Durable Metal Solutions segment is involved in the production and sale of metal-based packaging products, including a variety of steel drums. The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment is engaged in the production and sale of fiber-based packaging products, including fiber drums, corrugated sheets, corrugated containers, uncoated recycled board, coated recycled board, uncoated recycled board and coated recycled board. The Integrated Solutions segment is engaged in the production and sale of complimentary packaging products, such as paints, linings and closure systems for industrial packaging products and related services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Tariff Increase Impact: President Trump's executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15% could suppress global economic growth, negatively impacting the stock market, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors, as investors reassess risk exposure.
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- Yield Metrics: Following this adjustment, Greif's forward yield stands at 3.82%, providing investors with a relatively attractive return that underscores the company's robust performance in the current economic landscape.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on April 1, with a record date of March 16 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 16, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and further solidifying shareholder loyalty.
- Financial Targets Reaffirmed: Greif has reaffirmed its 2026 EBITDA target of $630 million and free cash flow target of $315 million, indicating a proactive strategy in margin expansion and aggressive cost optimization, which is expected to drive future growth potential.
See More
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- Market Decline: On Monday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 1.21%, reflecting risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Tariff Increase: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that could curb global economic growth and negatively impact the stock market, particularly as it faces existing pressures.
- AI Risk Impact: A report from Citrini Research detailing potential risks of artificial intelligence on the global economy led to declines in software and payment stocks, with Datadog and Atlassian seeing drops of over 11% and 10%, respectively, indicating market concerns over tech stocks.
- Economic Data Highlights: Despite the stock market downturn, the U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, surpassing expectations, suggesting that the economic fundamentals remain strong and may provide support for a future market rebound.
See More
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- Quarterly Cash Dividends: Greif, Inc. has declared a cash dividend of $0.56 per share on its Class A Common Stock and $0.84 per share on its Class B Common Stock, reflecting the company's stable financial health and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Dividend Payment Date: The dividends will be payable on April 1, 2026, to stockholders of record as of March 16, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and enhancing their confidence in the company.
- Company Background: Founded in 1877, Greif is a global leader in industrial packaging with operations in 40 countries, dedicated to providing innovative and tailored solutions for some of the fastest-growing industries, thereby solidifying its market position.
- Sustainability Commitment: Greif emphasizes its commitment to global sustainability and operational excellence, aiming to create lasting value through high-quality packaging solutions that meet the needs of customers and stakeholders.
See More
US Stocks Plunge Sharply as Market Risk Sentiment Intensifies
- Market Downtrend: The S&P 500 index fell by 1.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 1.47%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Trade Policy Impact: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that may curb global economic growth and exacerbate downward pressure on the markets.
- Software Stocks Under Pressure: Concerns over AI impacts led to a more than 9% drop in CrowdStrike and other software stocks, which not only affected the market capitalization of these companies but also negatively influenced overall market sentiment.
- Economic Data Performance: The U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, exceeding expectations and indicating potential improvement in economic activity, yet the market remains cautious ahead of upcoming corporate earnings and economic data releases.
See More
US Stocks Decline Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.66%, reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Tariff Increase Impact: President Trump's executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15% could suppress global economic growth, negatively impacting the stock market, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors, as investors reassess risk exposure.
- Earnings Outlook: Despite the overall market decline, over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 74% exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in corporate earnings, and S&P earnings growth is projected to reach 8.4% in Q4.
- Economic Data Focus: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including consumer confidence index and initial jobless claims, as these figures will influence the Fed's interest rate decisions, further impacting stock market trends.
See More
Greif, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance Boost: Greif achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, with EBITDA margins improving by 260 basis points to 12.3%, demonstrating significant success in cost optimization despite ongoing soft demand.
- Share Repurchase Program: The company completed $130 million of its $150 million share repurchase program and received approval for a new $300 million authorization, indicating management's confidence in future cash flows and capital flexibility to support long-term value creation strategies.
- Market Demand Challenges: While demand in Customized Polymer Solutions remained flat, Durable Metal Solutions and Sustainable Fiber Solutions faced ongoing pressure, prompting management to emphasize aggressive commercial execution and targeted capacity expansions to address market challenges.
- Future Outlook: Greif reaffirmed its low-end guidance for 2026 of $630 million in adjusted EBITDA and $315 million in free cash flow, reflecting ongoing efforts in structural cost optimization and market price changes, although overall volumes were slightly below expectations.
See More
