Grail Stock Plummets 50% Following Trial Failure
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy GRAL?
Source: Fool
- Trial Results Disappoint: Grail's Galleri multi-cancer early detection test failed to meet the primary endpoint of statistically significant Stage III-IV cancer reduction in the NHS trial, raising investor concerns about future insurance coverage.
- Market Reaction Severe: By 1:30 p.m., Grail's stock plummeted over 50%, reducing its market cap to $2.1 billion, despite holding $904 million in cash and facing a $299 million cash burn in operations.
- Follow-Up Data Potential: Management noted a clinically meaningful reduction in Stage IV diagnoses and a higher-than-expected incidence of Stage III cancers, suggesting that follow-up data could reveal greater statistical significance post-treatment, offering a glimmer of hope for investors.
- Financial Condition Analysis: Despite the trial setback, Grail's financials show $54.9 million in lease liabilities and sufficient cash reserves to support operations while extending the trial follow-up period and preparing detailed results.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy GRAL?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on GRAL
Wall Street analysts forecast GRAL stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 50.350
Low
38.00
Averages
60.86
High
83.71
Current: 50.350
Low
38.00
Averages
60.86
High
83.71
About GRAL
Grail, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on saving lives and shifting the paradigm in early cancer detection. The Company is focused on alleviating the global burden of cancer by using sequencing, population-scale clinical studies, and machine learning, software, and automation to detect and identify multiple deadly cancer types in earlier stages. Its targeted methylation-based platform can support the continuum of care for screening and precision oncology, including multi-cancer early detection in symptomatic patients, risk stratification, minimal residual disease detection, biomarker subtyping, treatment and recurrence monitoring. Its multi-cancer early detection test, the Galleri test, is a commercially available screening test for early detection of multiple types of cancer. The Galleri test can be used to screen for cancer before a person becomes symptomatic, when cancer may be more easily treated and potentially curable. The Galleri test can indicate the origin of the cancer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Grail Stock Surges Over 16% Amid Optimism for Future Developments
- Stock Rebound: Grail's stock surged over 16% by midday, following several days of sharp declines, indicating market optimism for future developments despite the Galleri multi-cancer early detection test missing its primary endpoint.
- Clinical Trial Results: The trial, involving 142,000 participants, failed to show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III and IV cancers across 12 deadly indications, although CEO Bob Ragusa stated this would not impact FDA approval likelihood.
- Insurance Payment Risks: The failure to meet the primary endpoint raises concerns that insurers may be reluctant to cover the test, potentially affecting market acceptance and future revenue streams.
- Follow-Up Data Anticipation: Analysts noted that Grail is extending the trial to gather 6 to 12 months of follow-up data, hoping this data will validate the study's effectiveness, although Ragusa acknowledged a longer follow-up period should have been allowed.
See More
Grail Shares Plunge 50% Amid Clinical Trial Setback
- Stock Price Volatility: Grail's shares plummeted by 50% last Friday, dropping from approximately $102 to $49, reflecting investor concerns about the company's outlook after a remarkable rise from $19 to $110 in 2025.
- Clinical Trial Setback: The company announced that its large clinical trial in England failed to meet the primary endpoint of reducing Stage III-IV cancer diagnoses, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the Galleri test and impacting market confidence.
- Market Reaction: Following the trial results, Grail's stock fell by 14.3% in a single day, reducing its market capitalization to $2 billion, indicating significant investor anxiety regarding its future profitability.
- Uncertain Medicare Coverage: Grail has been striving to secure Medicare coverage for the Galleri test, but the disappointing trial results cast doubt on this goal, potentially affecting the company's long-term strategic direction.
See More
Grail Stock Plummets 16% Amid Trial Failure
- Trial Results Disappoint: Grail's Galleri multi-cancer early detection trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, showing no statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancer detection rates, leading to a stock price drop of over 16%, posing a significant challenge to the company's future market acceptance.
- Market Reaction Intense: As of 12:40, Grail's stock price fell by 15.16%, currently priced at $42.60 with a market cap of $2 billion and a trading volume of 4.6 million shares, indicating strong investor reaction and concerns about the company's outlook following the trial results.
- Insurance Payment Barriers: The trial's inability to demonstrate that the Galleri test effectively reduces late-stage cancer incidence may lead healthcare insurers to hesitate in covering the test, impacting Grail's revenue and market penetration capabilities.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although management noted plans to extend the trial's follow-up period and suggested that diagnostic resolution times may improve with physician experience, the current results cast a pessimistic shadow over the test's future market potential.
See More
Baker Bros. Advisors Increases GRAIL Stake by 455,208 Shares
- Share Acquisition: On February 17, 2026, Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed the purchase of 455,208 shares of GRAIL, valued at approximately $39.33 million, indicating confidence in GRAIL's future growth potential.
- Market Value and Revenue: GRAIL's market capitalization stands at $1.6 billion, with Q4 2025 revenue rising 14% to $43.6 million and full-year revenue increasing 17% to $147.2 million, showcasing its market potential in early cancer detection.
- Cash Flow and Financial Health: As of 2025, GRAIL holds $904.4 million in cash and marketable securities, expected to fund operations into 2030, despite facing a nearly 60% stock price drop due to disappointing clinical trial results.
- Market Outlook and Risks: While GRAIL's Galleri test showed improvements in early detection, the NHS-Galleri trial did not achieve a statistically significant reduction in late-stage cancers, prompting investors to monitor regulatory progress and market adoption to assess future investment risks.
See More
GRAIL Inc. Shares Drop After NHS-Galleri Trial Results
- Trial Results Impact: The NHS-Galleri trial indicated a clinically meaningful reduction of over 20% in Stage IV cancer diagnoses across 12 deadly cancers, although the primary endpoint was not met, leading to a significant drop in GRAIL's stock price due to unmet expectations.
- Market Reaction: GRAIL shares fell 2.27% to $49.07 in premarket trading on Monday, reflecting a nearly 51% decline from Friday's close, indicating that the stock's movement is primarily influenced by company-specific news rather than broader market trends.
- Technical Weakness: Currently, GRAIL's stock is trading 47.3% below its 20-day simple moving average and 40.5% below its 100-day SMA, highlighting significant short-term weakness, while the RSI at 50.93 suggests mixed momentum in market sentiment.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Despite the stock's decline, GRAIL maintains a Buy rating with an average price target of $100.50; however, analysts from Canaccord Genuity and Baird have lowered their targets to $80.00 and $82.00, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
GRAIL, Inc. Under Investigation for Securities Law Violations
- Investigation Launched: Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP is investigating potential violations of U.S. federal securities laws involving GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRAL), indicating the law firm's commitment to protecting investor rights as affected investors are encouraged to provide information.
- Trial Results Disappoint: On February 19, 2026, GRAIL announced that its NHS-Galleri trial did not show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancer, leading to a significant drop in GRAIL's stock price, reflecting market concerns about the company's future prospects.
- Law Firm Background: Robbins Geller is a leading law firm in securities fraud and shareholder rights litigation, recovering over $916 million for investors in 2025 alone, and a total of $8.4 billion over the past five years, showcasing its strong position and influence in the securities litigation space.
- Investor Warning: The ongoing investigation and negative trial results may expose GRAIL to greater legal and financial risks, prompting investors to closely monitor developments to assess the safety of their investments and potential losses.
See More
Grail Stock Surges Over 16% Amid Optimism for Future Developments
- Stock Rebound: Grail's stock surged over 16% by midday, following several days of sharp declines, indicating market optimism for future developments despite the Galleri multi-cancer early detection test missing its primary endpoint.
- Clinical Trial Results: The trial, involving 142,000 participants, failed to show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III and IV cancers across 12 deadly indications, although CEO Bob Ragusa stated this would not impact FDA approval likelihood.
- Insurance Payment Risks: The failure to meet the primary endpoint raises concerns that insurers may be reluctant to cover the test, potentially affecting market acceptance and future revenue streams.
- Follow-Up Data Anticipation: Analysts noted that Grail is extending the trial to gather 6 to 12 months of follow-up data, hoping this data will validate the study's effectiveness, although Ragusa acknowledged a longer follow-up period should have been allowed.
See More
Grail Shares Plunge 50% Amid Clinical Trial Setback
- Stock Price Volatility: Grail's shares plummeted by 50% last Friday, dropping from approximately $102 to $49, reflecting investor concerns about the company's outlook after a remarkable rise from $19 to $110 in 2025.
- Clinical Trial Setback: The company announced that its large clinical trial in England failed to meet the primary endpoint of reducing Stage III-IV cancer diagnoses, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the Galleri test and impacting market confidence.
- Market Reaction: Following the trial results, Grail's stock fell by 14.3% in a single day, reducing its market capitalization to $2 billion, indicating significant investor anxiety regarding its future profitability.
- Uncertain Medicare Coverage: Grail has been striving to secure Medicare coverage for the Galleri test, but the disappointing trial results cast doubt on this goal, potentially affecting the company's long-term strategic direction.
See More
Grail Stock Plummets 16% Amid Trial Failure
- Trial Results Disappoint: Grail's Galleri multi-cancer early detection trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, showing no statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancer detection rates, leading to a stock price drop of over 16%, posing a significant challenge to the company's future market acceptance.
- Market Reaction Intense: As of 12:40, Grail's stock price fell by 15.16%, currently priced at $42.60 with a market cap of $2 billion and a trading volume of 4.6 million shares, indicating strong investor reaction and concerns about the company's outlook following the trial results.
- Insurance Payment Barriers: The trial's inability to demonstrate that the Galleri test effectively reduces late-stage cancer incidence may lead healthcare insurers to hesitate in covering the test, impacting Grail's revenue and market penetration capabilities.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although management noted plans to extend the trial's follow-up period and suggested that diagnostic resolution times may improve with physician experience, the current results cast a pessimistic shadow over the test's future market potential.
See More
Baker Bros. Advisors Increases GRAIL Stake by 455,208 Shares
- Share Acquisition: On February 17, 2026, Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed the purchase of 455,208 shares of GRAIL, valued at approximately $39.33 million, indicating confidence in GRAIL's future growth potential.
- Market Value and Revenue: GRAIL's market capitalization stands at $1.6 billion, with Q4 2025 revenue rising 14% to $43.6 million and full-year revenue increasing 17% to $147.2 million, showcasing its market potential in early cancer detection.
- Cash Flow and Financial Health: As of 2025, GRAIL holds $904.4 million in cash and marketable securities, expected to fund operations into 2030, despite facing a nearly 60% stock price drop due to disappointing clinical trial results.
- Market Outlook and Risks: While GRAIL's Galleri test showed improvements in early detection, the NHS-Galleri trial did not achieve a statistically significant reduction in late-stage cancers, prompting investors to monitor regulatory progress and market adoption to assess future investment risks.
See More
GRAIL Inc. Shares Drop After NHS-Galleri Trial Results
- Trial Results Impact: The NHS-Galleri trial indicated a clinically meaningful reduction of over 20% in Stage IV cancer diagnoses across 12 deadly cancers, although the primary endpoint was not met, leading to a significant drop in GRAIL's stock price due to unmet expectations.
- Market Reaction: GRAIL shares fell 2.27% to $49.07 in premarket trading on Monday, reflecting a nearly 51% decline from Friday's close, indicating that the stock's movement is primarily influenced by company-specific news rather than broader market trends.
- Technical Weakness: Currently, GRAIL's stock is trading 47.3% below its 20-day simple moving average and 40.5% below its 100-day SMA, highlighting significant short-term weakness, while the RSI at 50.93 suggests mixed momentum in market sentiment.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Despite the stock's decline, GRAIL maintains a Buy rating with an average price target of $100.50; however, analysts from Canaccord Genuity and Baird have lowered their targets to $80.00 and $82.00, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
GRAIL, Inc. Under Investigation for Securities Law Violations
- Investigation Launched: Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP is investigating potential violations of U.S. federal securities laws involving GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRAL), indicating the law firm's commitment to protecting investor rights as affected investors are encouraged to provide information.
- Trial Results Disappoint: On February 19, 2026, GRAIL announced that its NHS-Galleri trial did not show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancer, leading to a significant drop in GRAIL's stock price, reflecting market concerns about the company's future prospects.
- Law Firm Background: Robbins Geller is a leading law firm in securities fraud and shareholder rights litigation, recovering over $916 million for investors in 2025 alone, and a total of $8.4 billion over the past five years, showcasing its strong position and influence in the securities litigation space.
- Investor Warning: The ongoing investigation and negative trial results may expose GRAIL to greater legal and financial risks, prompting investors to closely monitor developments to assess the safety of their investments and potential losses.
See More
