Goldman Sachs Downgrades StoneCo Rating, Shares Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy STNE?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Goldman Sachs downgraded StoneCo's stock from Buy to Neutral, anticipating weaker earnings momentum, which led to a 4.63% drop in shares to $11.12 during Wednesday morning trading, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance.
- Weak Performance Expectations: Analysts noted that StoneCo's Total Payment Volume (TPV) is underperforming, with a projected 1% year-over-year decline in 2026, resulting in market share losses, particularly compared to main competitor PagSeguro Digital (PAGS).
- Increased Valuation Pressure: Despite a 7% year-to-date decline in StoneCo's 12-month forward P/E ratio, Goldman Sachs sees limited room for multiple expansion due to decelerating results, projecting a 6% downside to the Visible Alpha consensus for 2026 net income.
- Cash Dividend Impact: The research note highlights that StoneCo is currently trading without one of its main catalysts, the R$3 billion excess cash from the Linx divestiture completed in February 2026, which will be distributed as extraordinary dividends on May 4, further affecting investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on STNE
Wall Street analysts forecast STNE stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.080
Low
20.00
Averages
22.00
High
25.00
Current: 11.080
Low
20.00
Averages
22.00
High
25.00
About STNE
StoneCo Ltd. is a provider of financial technology and software solutions. The Company designed its cloud-based technology platform, namely the Stone Business Model, for its clients to connect, get paid, and grow their businesses. Its segments include financial services and software. In financial services, it offers payments, digital banking, and credit solutions, focused mainly on Micro, Small, and Medium Businesses (MSMBs). In software, it offers Point of Sale (POS) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions for different retail and service verticals, Customer Relationship Management (CRM), engagement tools, electronic commerce, and order management system solutions. It also provides digital product enhancements to help its merchants improve their consumers' experience, such as its split-payment processing, multi-payment processing, recurring payments for subscriptions, and one-click buy functionality. It provides its clients with store, life, and health insurance solutions.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Goldman Sachs downgraded StoneCo's stock from Buy to Neutral, anticipating weaker earnings momentum, which led to a 4.63% drop in shares to $11.12 during Wednesday morning trading, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance.
- Weak Performance Expectations: Analysts noted that StoneCo's Total Payment Volume (TPV) is underperforming, with a projected 1% year-over-year decline in 2026, resulting in market share losses, particularly compared to main competitor PagSeguro Digital (PAGS).
- Increased Valuation Pressure: Despite a 7% year-to-date decline in StoneCo's 12-month forward P/E ratio, Goldman Sachs sees limited room for multiple expansion due to decelerating results, projecting a 6% downside to the Visible Alpha consensus for 2026 net income.
- Cash Dividend Impact: The research note highlights that StoneCo is currently trading without one of its main catalysts, the R$3 billion excess cash from the Linx divestiture completed in February 2026, which will be distributed as extraordinary dividends on May 4, further affecting investor confidence.
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- Strategic Shift: Uber has announced a commitment of over $10 billion to acquire thousands of autonomous vehicles, marking a significant transition from its 'asset-light' model to owning a fleet, aimed at countering threats from competitors like Waymo and Tesla.
- Market Response: This move not only surpasses last year's $9.8 billion in free cash flow but also demonstrates Uber's determination in the autonomous driving sector, with plans to launch robotaxi services in 15 cities, further solidifying its market position.
- Partnerships: Uber's investment will involve collaborations with companies like Lucid, Rivian, and China's Baidu, aiming to ensure supply chain stability and enhance its competitiveness in the autonomous driving market.
- Financial Pressure: While this investment may increase financial burdens, analysts view it as a necessary step for Uber to adapt to market changes and achieve long-term growth, especially in competition with giants like Amazon and Alphabet.
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- Extraordinary Cash Dividend: StoneCo has declared an extraordinary cash dividend of $2.53 per share, payable on May 4, with a record date of April 24 and an ex-dividend date also set for April 24, aimed at rewarding shareholders and boosting investor confidence.
- Long-Term Incentive Plan Increase: The board approved an increase of approximately 3.8 million shares for the Long Term Incentive Plan, which will follow the established vesting schedule, helping to attract and retain key talent to support the company's long-term growth strategy.
- Capital Distribution Decisions: The final capital distribution decisions will be disclosed in an S-8 filing after the dividend settlement on May 4, with no voting on this matter at the AGM on April 23, demonstrating the company's transparency and cautious approach to capital management.
- Market Reaction: Despite the dividend announcement, StoneCo's stock dipped due to 2025 adjusted gross profit falling below expectations, reflecting market concerns about the company's future profitability, which may impact investor confidence.
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- Market Growth Potential: The company primarily operates in Brazil, which is expected to grow faster than the U.S. economy, indicating significant potential for business expansion and profitability in emerging markets.
- Stock Performance: As of the afternoon prices on March 29, 2026, the company's stock reflects market confidence in its future growth, likely attracting more investor interest in its Brazilian operations.
- Video Release Impact: The video published on March 31, 2026, further emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the Brazilian market, potentially enhancing brand recognition and expanding its customer base.
- Strategic Significance: With Brazil's rapid economic growth, the company can leverage this trend to optimize resource allocation and increase market share, thereby securing a competitive advantage.
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- Brazil's Growth Potential: StoneCo operates primarily in Brazil, which is expected to grow faster than the U.S. economy, indicating potential growth opportunities for the company in a rapidly developing market.
- Lack of Investor Recommendations: Despite its market presence, StoneCo was not included in The Motley Fool's current list of the top 10 stocks to buy, which may affect investor confidence in the company.
- Historical Return Comparison: The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor program shows an average return of 880% for recommended stocks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 178%, potentially raising doubts about StoneCo's future performance.
- Competitive Market Pressure: While StoneCo is referred to as an
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- Stock Volatility: StoneCo Ltd. ended the recent trading session at $14.00, reflecting a 2.51% decline from the previous day, underperforming against the S&P 500's 1.74% drop, indicating market concerns about its future performance.
- Poor Monthly Performance: Over the past month, StoneCo's stock has fallen by 14.88%, significantly exceeding the Computer and Technology sector's 5.77% and the S&P 500's 4.99% declines, highlighting the company's relative weakness in the industry.
- Earnings Report Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings of $0.45 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 32.35%, with revenue expected at $694.49 million, indicating a 10.96% increase, showcasing the company's potential for revenue growth.
- Valuation Analysis: Currently, StoneCo has a forward P/E ratio of 7.47, well below the industry average of 18.93, and a PEG ratio of 0.32, suggesting that its stock is undervalued in the market, which may attract value investors' attention.
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