Gold and Silver Aren't the Sole Hot Commodities: Explore Agricultural Stocks.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Source: Barron's
Focus on Soft Commodities: The article emphasizes the importance of paying attention to soft commodities, which are often overshadowed by the rally in hard commodities like gold and silver.
Market Dynamics: It suggests that the current market dynamics warrant a closer look at soft commodities, as they may present significant investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on CF
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 126.920
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
Current: 126.920
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
About CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products. The Company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. The Company's segments include Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN and Other. Ammonia segment produces anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which is the base product that it manufactures (containing 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen). Granular Urea segment produces granular urea, which contains 46% nitrogen. UAN segment produces urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN). AN segment produces ammonium nitrate (AN). Other segment primarily includes products, such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor and nitric acid. Its manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, a storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enable a global reach.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Stock Price Movements of Various Companies
- Generac Stock Decline: Shares of generator manufacturer Generac fell 7% after its EBITDA margin forecast disappointed Wall Street, projecting EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.45 billion for 2028, below the consensus of $1.29 billion, with margins expected in the low 20% range, which could undermine investor confidence.
- Meta Layoffs: Meta Platforms saw a 1% rise in stock price despite plans to lay off several hundred employees across various divisions, including Facebook and Reality Labs, indicating a strategic move to optimize resources in response to market challenges, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects.
- Intuitive Machines Contract Win: Intuitive Machines surged over 15% after securing a $180.4 million contract with NASA to deliver seven science and technology payloads to the moon, a significant win that is expected to enhance the company's market position and future revenue outlook.
- PDD Holdings Revenue Growth: PDD Holdings' U.S.-traded shares increased by 7%, reporting total revenue of 123.9 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a 12% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the consensus of 124.5 billion yuan, indicating the company's resilience in a competitive market.
See More
Significant Premarket Moves in U.S. Stocks
- Fertilizer Price Fluctuation: CF Industries' shares fell nearly 4% as reports indicated that negotiations surrounding the U.S.-Iran war could signal an end to commodity shortages, despite a 27% increase since the conflict began.
- Chip Innovation: Arm's stock rose 13% after unveiling its first in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in revenue by 2031, highlighting its strong growth potential in the semiconductor market.
- Acquisition Deal: Terns Pharmaceuticals saw shares gain over 5% after Merck agreed to acquire the biopharma company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at $6.7 billion, expected to close in Q2.
- Stock Buyback Plan: Robinhood's stock jumped 4% after announcing a $1.5 billion stock buyback plan, set to be executed over three years, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Middle East Conflict Triggers Global Fertilizer Crisis
- Supply Chain Disruption: The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has impacted around 30% of exportable urea supplies globally, causing fertilizer prices to surge, with urea jumping from $400-$490 to $700 per metric ton, directly affecting farmers' fertilization capabilities and crop yields.
- Price Surge: Since the onset of the war, prices for urea and ammonia have risen by 50% and 20% respectively, exacerbating tensions in the global fertilizer market and potentially leading to declines in agricultural yields, particularly during the crucial spring fertilization season in the northern hemisphere.
- Food Security Concerns: Experts warn that a hypothetical 5% drop in agricultural yields due to fertilizer shortages could trigger food inflation, with poorer nations reliant on grain imports facing the brunt of the impact, potentially leading to severe food security issues.
- Market Response: U.S. farmers are under pressure from rising fertilizer prices, with 54 agricultural groups calling for market relief from the President, indicating that the current fertilizer crisis could significantly impact U.S. agriculture, especially as the planting season begins.
See More
TotalEnergies CEO Discusses Current Oil and Gas Market Conditions
- Production Impact: TotalEnergies has approximately 15% of its production offline due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, yet the Brent crude price remains solidly above $100 per barrel, compensating for lost output and demonstrating the company's resilience in a high-price environment.
- Surging Product Prices: CEO Pouyanné highlighted that while the Brent market is stable, product prices are significantly higher, particularly refining margins for Asian jet fuel, which have reached unprecedented levels, indicating a tight supply-demand situation in the market.
- Natural Gas Price Outlook: Pouyanné anticipates that ongoing conflict will lead to substantial increases in natural gas prices during the summer, potentially reaching $40 per million British thermal units as Asian demand rises, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to energy supply.
- U.S. Investment Shift: TotalEnergies has struck a deal with the Trump administration to abandon offshore wind projects in exchange for $1 billion, planning to reinvest in U.S. oil and gas projects, indicating a strategic pivot towards more cost-effective technologies in the U.S. market.
See More
Agricultural Producers ETF Trading Dynamics
- Highest Volume Components: On Tuesday, CNH Industrial traded over 17.9 million shares, rising approximately 2.2%, indicating strong market interest that may attract further investor attention towards its future performance.
- Mosaic Stock Surge: Mosaic's stock increased by about 2.8% on a volume exceeding 7.4 million shares, reflecting sustained strong demand for its agricultural products, which could drive future profit growth for the company.
- CF Industries Outperformance: CF Industries Holdings saw a notable increase of approximately 5.1% on Tuesday, making it the best-performing component, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in the agricultural fertilizer market that may lead to greater market share.
- Vital Farms Underperformance: Vital Farms traded lower by about 0.5%, lagging behind other components in the iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF, indicating potential weakness in market demand for its products, necessitating a review of its future market strategies.
See More
Kuwait Petroleum Warns of Economic Blockade Impact
- Economic Blockade Warning: Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, stated that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes an economic blockade against Gulf Arab oil producers, warning that the impact will be catastrophic and could trigger a domino effect on the global economy.
- Production Disruption: Kuwait has declared force majeure on its delivery contracts and has ramped down oil production, currently only supplying oil for domestic consumption, with a prior production level of 2.6 million barrels per day, making it the fifth-largest producer in OPEC.
- Global Supply Shortage: Al-Sabah emphasized that the 3 million barrels per day of emergency stocks from the International Energy Agency will do little to compensate for the production cuts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, highlighting the far-reaching impact of the Strait's closure on the global supply chain.
- Agricultural Impact: With fertilizers from the Gulf unable to reach global markets, developing countries could see a 50% reduction in harvests, particularly as the planting season approaches, exacerbating difficulties in global food transportation.
See More
Stock Price Movements of Various Companies
- Generac Stock Decline: Shares of generator manufacturer Generac fell 7% after its EBITDA margin forecast disappointed Wall Street, projecting EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.45 billion for 2028, below the consensus of $1.29 billion, with margins expected in the low 20% range, which could undermine investor confidence.
- Meta Layoffs: Meta Platforms saw a 1% rise in stock price despite plans to lay off several hundred employees across various divisions, including Facebook and Reality Labs, indicating a strategic move to optimize resources in response to market challenges, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects.
- Intuitive Machines Contract Win: Intuitive Machines surged over 15% after securing a $180.4 million contract with NASA to deliver seven science and technology payloads to the moon, a significant win that is expected to enhance the company's market position and future revenue outlook.
- PDD Holdings Revenue Growth: PDD Holdings' U.S.-traded shares increased by 7%, reporting total revenue of 123.9 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a 12% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the consensus of 124.5 billion yuan, indicating the company's resilience in a competitive market.
See More
Significant Premarket Moves in U.S. Stocks
- Fertilizer Price Fluctuation: CF Industries' shares fell nearly 4% as reports indicated that negotiations surrounding the U.S.-Iran war could signal an end to commodity shortages, despite a 27% increase since the conflict began.
- Chip Innovation: Arm's stock rose 13% after unveiling its first in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in revenue by 2031, highlighting its strong growth potential in the semiconductor market.
- Acquisition Deal: Terns Pharmaceuticals saw shares gain over 5% after Merck agreed to acquire the biopharma company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at $6.7 billion, expected to close in Q2.
- Stock Buyback Plan: Robinhood's stock jumped 4% after announcing a $1.5 billion stock buyback plan, set to be executed over three years, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Middle East Conflict Triggers Global Fertilizer Crisis
- Supply Chain Disruption: The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has impacted around 30% of exportable urea supplies globally, causing fertilizer prices to surge, with urea jumping from $400-$490 to $700 per metric ton, directly affecting farmers' fertilization capabilities and crop yields.
- Price Surge: Since the onset of the war, prices for urea and ammonia have risen by 50% and 20% respectively, exacerbating tensions in the global fertilizer market and potentially leading to declines in agricultural yields, particularly during the crucial spring fertilization season in the northern hemisphere.
- Food Security Concerns: Experts warn that a hypothetical 5% drop in agricultural yields due to fertilizer shortages could trigger food inflation, with poorer nations reliant on grain imports facing the brunt of the impact, potentially leading to severe food security issues.
- Market Response: U.S. farmers are under pressure from rising fertilizer prices, with 54 agricultural groups calling for market relief from the President, indicating that the current fertilizer crisis could significantly impact U.S. agriculture, especially as the planting season begins.
See More
TotalEnergies CEO Discusses Current Oil and Gas Market Conditions
- Production Impact: TotalEnergies has approximately 15% of its production offline due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, yet the Brent crude price remains solidly above $100 per barrel, compensating for lost output and demonstrating the company's resilience in a high-price environment.
- Surging Product Prices: CEO Pouyanné highlighted that while the Brent market is stable, product prices are significantly higher, particularly refining margins for Asian jet fuel, which have reached unprecedented levels, indicating a tight supply-demand situation in the market.
- Natural Gas Price Outlook: Pouyanné anticipates that ongoing conflict will lead to substantial increases in natural gas prices during the summer, potentially reaching $40 per million British thermal units as Asian demand rises, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to energy supply.
- U.S. Investment Shift: TotalEnergies has struck a deal with the Trump administration to abandon offshore wind projects in exchange for $1 billion, planning to reinvest in U.S. oil and gas projects, indicating a strategic pivot towards more cost-effective technologies in the U.S. market.
See More
Agricultural Producers ETF Trading Dynamics
- Highest Volume Components: On Tuesday, CNH Industrial traded over 17.9 million shares, rising approximately 2.2%, indicating strong market interest that may attract further investor attention towards its future performance.
- Mosaic Stock Surge: Mosaic's stock increased by about 2.8% on a volume exceeding 7.4 million shares, reflecting sustained strong demand for its agricultural products, which could drive future profit growth for the company.
- CF Industries Outperformance: CF Industries Holdings saw a notable increase of approximately 5.1% on Tuesday, making it the best-performing component, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in the agricultural fertilizer market that may lead to greater market share.
- Vital Farms Underperformance: Vital Farms traded lower by about 0.5%, lagging behind other components in the iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF, indicating potential weakness in market demand for its products, necessitating a review of its future market strategies.
See More
Kuwait Petroleum Warns of Economic Blockade Impact
- Economic Blockade Warning: Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, stated that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes an economic blockade against Gulf Arab oil producers, warning that the impact will be catastrophic and could trigger a domino effect on the global economy.
- Production Disruption: Kuwait has declared force majeure on its delivery contracts and has ramped down oil production, currently only supplying oil for domestic consumption, with a prior production level of 2.6 million barrels per day, making it the fifth-largest producer in OPEC.
- Global Supply Shortage: Al-Sabah emphasized that the 3 million barrels per day of emergency stocks from the International Energy Agency will do little to compensate for the production cuts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, highlighting the far-reaching impact of the Strait's closure on the global supply chain.
- Agricultural Impact: With fertilizers from the Gulf unable to reach global markets, developing countries could see a 50% reduction in harvests, particularly as the planting season approaches, exacerbating difficulties in global food transportation.
See More
