Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy GGB?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on GGB
About GGB
Gerdau SA is a Brazil-based manufacturer of steel products. The Company is engaged in the production and commercialization of steel products in general, through its mills located in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the United States, Mexico, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela. The Firm’s product portfolio includes crude steel; finished products for the construction industry, such as rebar, wire-rods, structural shapes, hot-rolled coils and heavy plates; finished industrial products, such as commercial rolled-steel bars, light profiles and wires; agricultural products, such as stakes, smooth wire and barbed-wire; and special steel items. The Company’s activities include also operations of iron ore mines located in the state of Minas Gerais.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
See More
T. Rowe Elevates Stake in Brazil's Gerdau to 5.01% of Preferred Shares, According to Filing
- Stake Increase: T. Rowe Price has increased its stake in Gerdaus, now holding 5.01% of the preferred shares.
- Filing Announcement: The increase in stake was disclosed through a regulatory filing.
See More
GERDAU Files Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2025
- Filing Announcement: On March 13, 2026, GERDAU S.A. filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with the SEC and CVM, ensuring compliance and enhancing transparency for stakeholders.
- Investor Relations Focus: The document is accessible on the company's Investor Relations website, reflecting GERDAU's commitment to investor communication and aiming to bolster investor confidence and market reputation.
- Free Copy Requests: Shareholders can request a free copy of the Form 20-F by contacting the Investor Relations team via email, demonstrating the company's dedication to shareholder rights and service commitment.
- Regulatory Compliance: This filing meets SEC and CVM regulatory requirements, reinforcing the company's compliance in international markets and enhancing its credibility and attractiveness in the capital markets.
See More
GERDAU Files Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2025
- Filing Announcement: GERDAU S.A. has filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. SEC and Brazilian CVM, ensuring compliance with international financial reporting standards and enhancing transparency.
- Investor Relations Focus: The document is available on the company's Investor Relations website, indicating a commitment to investor information disclosure aimed at boosting shareholder trust and market reputation.
- Shareholder Access: Shareholders can request a free copy of the Form 20-F by contacting the Investor Relations team via email, further promoting interaction and communication with investors.
- Compliance Enhancement: By timely filing the Form 20-F, GERDAU strengthens its compliance, ensuring legal operations in global markets and enhancing the company's credibility in the capital markets.
See More
Analyst Ratings Impact Metal Stock Performance
- Analyst Rating Summary: The Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index components were ranked based on averaged analyst opinions from major brokerages, indicating varied market perceptions; while low rankings may suggest poor performance, they could also present contrarian opportunities for bullish investors.
- GGB Stock Performance: Currently trading down about 4.6% in the non-precious and non-metallic mining sector, GGB reflects cautious market sentiment, although the diversity of analyst ratings may suggest potential for a rebound.
- Competitor Performance: In comparison, Southern Copper Corp (SCCO) is down about 5.4% today, and Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) is also down about 4.5%, indicating pressure across the industry that could influence investor sentiment towards GGB.
- Market Interpretation Variance: Investors interpret analyst ratings differently, as low rankings do not necessarily indicate poor stock performance; rather, they may provide significant upside potential, especially during periods of negative market sentiment.
See More
Contrarian Capital Reduces Stake in Core Natural Resources
- Stake Reduction Details: Contrarian Capital Management reduced its stake in Core Natural Resources by 187,676 shares in Q4 2026, resulting in a decrease to 0.7359% of the fund's 13F assets, indicating a waning market confidence in the stock.
- Financial Impact Analysis: This reduction led to a decline in the quarter-end value of Core Natural Resources by approximately $15.51 million, highlighting how both market price movements and share sales have affected the company's market performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: As of February 13, 2026, Core Natural Resources shares were priced at $91.51, reflecting an 8.03% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.76 percentage points, suggesting insufficient market competitiveness.
- Investor Outlook: The coal market has stabilized post-global energy shock, and Core's future earnings will depend on whether coal prices remain above production costs, making it crucial for investors to monitor this gap to assess the sustainability of the company's cash flow.
See More
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
See More
T. Rowe Elevates Stake in Brazil's Gerdau to 5.01% of Preferred Shares, According to Filing
- Stake Increase: T. Rowe Price has increased its stake in Gerdaus, now holding 5.01% of the preferred shares.
- Filing Announcement: The increase in stake was disclosed through a regulatory filing.
See More
GERDAU Files Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2025
- Filing Announcement: On March 13, 2026, GERDAU S.A. filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with the SEC and CVM, ensuring compliance and enhancing transparency for stakeholders.
- Investor Relations Focus: The document is accessible on the company's Investor Relations website, reflecting GERDAU's commitment to investor communication and aiming to bolster investor confidence and market reputation.
- Free Copy Requests: Shareholders can request a free copy of the Form 20-F by contacting the Investor Relations team via email, demonstrating the company's dedication to shareholder rights and service commitment.
- Regulatory Compliance: This filing meets SEC and CVM regulatory requirements, reinforcing the company's compliance in international markets and enhancing its credibility and attractiveness in the capital markets.
See More
GERDAU Files Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2025
- Filing Announcement: GERDAU S.A. has filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. SEC and Brazilian CVM, ensuring compliance with international financial reporting standards and enhancing transparency.
- Investor Relations Focus: The document is available on the company's Investor Relations website, indicating a commitment to investor information disclosure aimed at boosting shareholder trust and market reputation.
- Shareholder Access: Shareholders can request a free copy of the Form 20-F by contacting the Investor Relations team via email, further promoting interaction and communication with investors.
- Compliance Enhancement: By timely filing the Form 20-F, GERDAU strengthens its compliance, ensuring legal operations in global markets and enhancing the company's credibility in the capital markets.
See More
Analyst Ratings Impact Metal Stock Performance
- Analyst Rating Summary: The Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index components were ranked based on averaged analyst opinions from major brokerages, indicating varied market perceptions; while low rankings may suggest poor performance, they could also present contrarian opportunities for bullish investors.
- GGB Stock Performance: Currently trading down about 4.6% in the non-precious and non-metallic mining sector, GGB reflects cautious market sentiment, although the diversity of analyst ratings may suggest potential for a rebound.
- Competitor Performance: In comparison, Southern Copper Corp (SCCO) is down about 5.4% today, and Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) is also down about 4.5%, indicating pressure across the industry that could influence investor sentiment towards GGB.
- Market Interpretation Variance: Investors interpret analyst ratings differently, as low rankings do not necessarily indicate poor stock performance; rather, they may provide significant upside potential, especially during periods of negative market sentiment.
See More
Contrarian Capital Reduces Stake in Core Natural Resources
- Stake Reduction Details: Contrarian Capital Management reduced its stake in Core Natural Resources by 187,676 shares in Q4 2026, resulting in a decrease to 0.7359% of the fund's 13F assets, indicating a waning market confidence in the stock.
- Financial Impact Analysis: This reduction led to a decline in the quarter-end value of Core Natural Resources by approximately $15.51 million, highlighting how both market price movements and share sales have affected the company's market performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: As of February 13, 2026, Core Natural Resources shares were priced at $91.51, reflecting an 8.03% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.76 percentage points, suggesting insufficient market competitiveness.
- Investor Outlook: The coal market has stabilized post-global energy shock, and Core's future earnings will depend on whether coal prices remain above production costs, making it crucial for investors to monitor this gap to assess the sustainability of the company's cash flow.
See More
