Gavin Baker's Insights on AI Stock Valuations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 8 hours ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Outstanding Returns: Gavin Baker achieved a compound annual return rate exceeding 19% while managing the OTC portfolio at Fidelity, outperforming 99% of his peers, showcasing his exceptional investment acumen and market insight.
- Large Portfolio Management: At Atreides Management, Baker oversees approximately $7 billion in public and private investments, and although his complete returns are not disclosed, his Sharpe ratio of 2.46 significantly exceeds the industry average, indicating high returns with controlled risk.
- AI Sector Valuation Analysis: On the All-In podcast, Baker highlighted the 'cross-sectionally inefficient' valuations in the AI sector, noting that memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk are currently undervalued, while Nvidia's low P/E suggests potential for price appreciation.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Baker advises investors to favor cheaper stocks like Micron and Nvidia over high-valuation stocks like Lumentum, which rely on multiple expansions for growth, suggesting that in the event of overall AI sector fluctuations, the cheaper stocks are likely to outperform in the long run.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVDA?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 214.250
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 214.250
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Data Center Business Outlook is Positive
- Revenue Concentration: In Q1, Nvidia reported total revenue of $81.6 billion, with $75.2 billion coming from its data center division, indicating a strong reliance on this segment, which may lead the company to further shift focus away from gaming to enhance its competitive edge in data centers.
- Strong Capex Expectations: The four major hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on capital expenditures in 2023, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by 2027, positioning Nvidia to benefit significantly from this massive spending, driving future growth.
- Significant Growth Rate: Nvidia's revenue grew by 85% year-over-year in Q1, a remarkable figure for a megacap company, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize its value; if valued similarly to peers, Nvidia's stock could be 2 to 3 times its current price, highlighting its undervalued potential.
- Increased Investment Confidence: With Nvidia's products at the core of a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure build-out, the unique combination of growth, value, and limited risk enhances investor confidence in its future performance, suggesting it will strongly outperform the S&P 500.
See More
Nvidia's Dominance in Data Center Market Continues to Grow
- Market Dominance: Nvidia's increasing dominance in the data center market indicates its growing competitiveness in AI technology, which could significantly impact future market dynamics.
- Potential Trillionaire: The rapid advancement of AI technology has sparked discussions about the possibility of the world's first trillionaire, suggesting immense wealth creation opportunities within the industry.
- Key Technology Supplier: A little-known company labeled as an 'Indispensable Monopoly' provides critical technology for both Nvidia and Intel, highlighting its importance and influence within the entire ecosystem.
- Investment Advice: Despite Nvidia's strong market performance, the analyst team identified 10 best stocks that do not include Nvidia, advising investors to carefully consider their investment decisions.
See More
Light Street Capital's Semiconductor Investment Strategy
- Remarkable Returns: Glen Kacher of Light Street Capital has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past three years, achieving returns of 45.7%, 59.4%, and 37.3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, showcasing his strong capabilities in tech investing and attracting significant market attention.
- Core Position in TSMC: Kacher's allocation of 14.4% of his portfolio to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, his largest holding, reflects confidence in the company's monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI and other chips.
- Market Leadership of Nvidia: Nvidia represents 8.9% of Light Street's holdings, and its dominant position in the large language model training market, coupled with a strong data center networking portfolio, positions it for significant growth in AI infrastructure, particularly in inference and agentic AI markets.
- Growth Potential of Broadcom: Broadcom, accounting for 8.7% of Light Street's portfolio, is expected to exceed $100 billion in custom AI chip revenues by fiscal 2027, highlighting its robust growth potential in the data center market, especially through its collaboration with Alphabet.
See More
AI IPO Trend Could Supercharge Bull Market
- AI Investment Surge: Over the past few years, investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has surged as it demonstrates potential as the next major transformational technology, driving stock prices of leading companies like Nvidia and Cerebras Systems higher.
- Cerebras IPO Success: Cerebras went public on May 14, raising $5.5 billion and achieving a 68% increase on its first trading day, reflecting strong market interest and confidence in emerging AI companies.
- SpaceX and OpenAI IPO Prospects: SpaceX's intended valuation of nearly $2 trillion could make it the largest IPO ever, while OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing to go public, with valuations potentially exceeding $800 billion, further attracting investor attention to the AI sector.
- Market Expansion and Risks: While the IPOs of emerging AI companies provide more opportunities for investors, they come with higher risks; established firms like Nvidia and Amazon remain solid choices, and the new IPOs are expected to inspire investors to increase their investments in AI stocks, boosting overall market growth.
See More
AI Stock Surge Fuels Market Growth
- AI Investment Surge: Investors have increasingly flocked to AI stocks, leading to significant price increases for companies like Nvidia and Alphabet, highlighting AI's potential as a transformative technology that is expected to enhance these companies' profitability and market performance.
- Cerebras IPO Success: Cerebras Systems went public on May 14, raising $5.5 billion in the largest IPO of the year, with a 68% increase on its first trading day, marking the rise of young AI companies and potentially offering new opportunities for investors.
- Future IPO Prospects: Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for IPOs, with valuations expected to exceed $800 billion, and OpenAI potentially reaching $1 trillion, providing investors with more AI investment options and further stimulating market activity.
- Market Expansion Impact: The IPO trend initiated by Cerebras could encourage more investors to focus on AI stocks; although emerging companies carry higher risks, this trend is likely to promote overall growth in the AI market, with projections indicating it could reach $2 trillion in the coming years.
See More
Apple's Potential in Agentic AI Market
- Market Potential Assessment: Analysts believe Apple is well-positioned in the agentic AI sector, with its robust ecosystem providing a competitive edge, potentially generating $15 billion to $30 billion in AI-related revenue by fiscal 2030, which, while modest relative to Apple's overall revenue, indicates significant growth potential.
- Product Innovation Capability: Apple typically adopts a cautious approach when launching new technologies, innovating on existing models to attract users, as evidenced by the success of the iPhone and AirPods, suggesting it could similarly lead in the AI space.
- User Base Advantage: With over 2 billion devices in circulation, Apple can rapidly deploy new AI features, enhancing user retention and leveraging data to boost network effects, thereby strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Long-term Investment Value: Despite facing tariffs and regulatory scrutiny, Apple's strong customer loyalty and expanding high-margin services segment position it as a solid long-term investment, especially as AI technology matures, with future profit potential looking promising.
See More
Nvidia's Data Center Business Outlook is Positive
- Revenue Concentration: In Q1, Nvidia reported total revenue of $81.6 billion, with $75.2 billion coming from its data center division, indicating a strong reliance on this segment, which may lead the company to further shift focus away from gaming to enhance its competitive edge in data centers.
- Strong Capex Expectations: The four major hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on capital expenditures in 2023, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by 2027, positioning Nvidia to benefit significantly from this massive spending, driving future growth.
- Significant Growth Rate: Nvidia's revenue grew by 85% year-over-year in Q1, a remarkable figure for a megacap company, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize its value; if valued similarly to peers, Nvidia's stock could be 2 to 3 times its current price, highlighting its undervalued potential.
- Increased Investment Confidence: With Nvidia's products at the core of a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure build-out, the unique combination of growth, value, and limited risk enhances investor confidence in its future performance, suggesting it will strongly outperform the S&P 500.
See More
Nvidia's Dominance in Data Center Market Continues to Grow
- Market Dominance: Nvidia's increasing dominance in the data center market indicates its growing competitiveness in AI technology, which could significantly impact future market dynamics.
- Potential Trillionaire: The rapid advancement of AI technology has sparked discussions about the possibility of the world's first trillionaire, suggesting immense wealth creation opportunities within the industry.
- Key Technology Supplier: A little-known company labeled as an 'Indispensable Monopoly' provides critical technology for both Nvidia and Intel, highlighting its importance and influence within the entire ecosystem.
- Investment Advice: Despite Nvidia's strong market performance, the analyst team identified 10 best stocks that do not include Nvidia, advising investors to carefully consider their investment decisions.
See More
Light Street Capital's Semiconductor Investment Strategy
- Remarkable Returns: Glen Kacher of Light Street Capital has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past three years, achieving returns of 45.7%, 59.4%, and 37.3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, showcasing his strong capabilities in tech investing and attracting significant market attention.
- Core Position in TSMC: Kacher's allocation of 14.4% of his portfolio to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, his largest holding, reflects confidence in the company's monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI and other chips.
- Market Leadership of Nvidia: Nvidia represents 8.9% of Light Street's holdings, and its dominant position in the large language model training market, coupled with a strong data center networking portfolio, positions it for significant growth in AI infrastructure, particularly in inference and agentic AI markets.
- Growth Potential of Broadcom: Broadcom, accounting for 8.7% of Light Street's portfolio, is expected to exceed $100 billion in custom AI chip revenues by fiscal 2027, highlighting its robust growth potential in the data center market, especially through its collaboration with Alphabet.
See More
AI IPO Trend Could Supercharge Bull Market
- AI Investment Surge: Over the past few years, investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has surged as it demonstrates potential as the next major transformational technology, driving stock prices of leading companies like Nvidia and Cerebras Systems higher.
- Cerebras IPO Success: Cerebras went public on May 14, raising $5.5 billion and achieving a 68% increase on its first trading day, reflecting strong market interest and confidence in emerging AI companies.
- SpaceX and OpenAI IPO Prospects: SpaceX's intended valuation of nearly $2 trillion could make it the largest IPO ever, while OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing to go public, with valuations potentially exceeding $800 billion, further attracting investor attention to the AI sector.
- Market Expansion and Risks: While the IPOs of emerging AI companies provide more opportunities for investors, they come with higher risks; established firms like Nvidia and Amazon remain solid choices, and the new IPOs are expected to inspire investors to increase their investments in AI stocks, boosting overall market growth.
See More
AI Stock Surge Fuels Market Growth
- AI Investment Surge: Investors have increasingly flocked to AI stocks, leading to significant price increases for companies like Nvidia and Alphabet, highlighting AI's potential as a transformative technology that is expected to enhance these companies' profitability and market performance.
- Cerebras IPO Success: Cerebras Systems went public on May 14, raising $5.5 billion in the largest IPO of the year, with a 68% increase on its first trading day, marking the rise of young AI companies and potentially offering new opportunities for investors.
- Future IPO Prospects: Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for IPOs, with valuations expected to exceed $800 billion, and OpenAI potentially reaching $1 trillion, providing investors with more AI investment options and further stimulating market activity.
- Market Expansion Impact: The IPO trend initiated by Cerebras could encourage more investors to focus on AI stocks; although emerging companies carry higher risks, this trend is likely to promote overall growth in the AI market, with projections indicating it could reach $2 trillion in the coming years.
See More
Apple's Potential in Agentic AI Market
- Market Potential Assessment: Analysts believe Apple is well-positioned in the agentic AI sector, with its robust ecosystem providing a competitive edge, potentially generating $15 billion to $30 billion in AI-related revenue by fiscal 2030, which, while modest relative to Apple's overall revenue, indicates significant growth potential.
- Product Innovation Capability: Apple typically adopts a cautious approach when launching new technologies, innovating on existing models to attract users, as evidenced by the success of the iPhone and AirPods, suggesting it could similarly lead in the AI space.
- User Base Advantage: With over 2 billion devices in circulation, Apple can rapidly deploy new AI features, enhancing user retention and leveraging data to boost network effects, thereby strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Long-term Investment Value: Despite facing tariffs and regulatory scrutiny, Apple's strong customer loyalty and expanding high-margin services segment position it as a solid long-term investment, especially as AI technology matures, with future profit potential looking promising.
See More
