Frontier Group Short Interest Rises to 51.8%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was down 1.0%, the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.0%, the Russell 2000 index was up 0.2%, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas down 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas flat in the five-day trading session range through March 19.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Frontier Group Holdingshad previously reached a multi-month high above 50% in the first week of December as the stock price had rallied. Short positioning had then retreated to track in a 35%-42% range over the second half of December and through January-February, though bears have been far more active over the past three weeks, coinciding with the start of the Iran campaign by U.S.-Israel forces. This week, short interest as a percentage of free float jumped from 44.4% to 51.8%, a 10-month high. Similarly, days-to-cover rose sharply from 7.2 to 8.3 despite the increase in trading volume. Shares of Frontier Group were down 6% in the five-day period ended Thursday, though the stock is now down 27% from the start of the Middle East tension as traders react to the double-whammy of higher oil price and heightened travel alertness impacting airline and cruise stocks.Ortex-reported short interest on WisdomTreehad receded from mid-February high levels around 26.5% toward 22% in the first two weeks of March, though this week, shorts as a percentage of free float nudged higher and back above 24% while days-to-cover on the stock rose from 7.8 to 8.6. The stock had been one of the best performing names among its small-cap peers in the asset management space and remains impressively higher double-digits year-to-date in spite of the headwinds encountered by private credit, though it was also down 8.5% in in the five-day period covered through Thursday and has now fallen 24% relative to its 2026 peak just two weeks ago.Ortex-reported short interest in Core Scientifichad tracked in a very narrow 25%-26% range from February 10 through March 10, though this week, traders have turned increasingly willing to underwrite a more bearish case for digital crypto mining names. Short interest as a percentage of free float climbed from 26.5% to 28.3% in the five-day period covered through Thursday even as the stock rose 1.5% against a decidedly negative broader market sentiment. Short positioning is now within two percentage points of its 2026 highs even though the stock is still up about 9% on the year.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSThe oil shock related to the Middle East conflict has made energy the only market sector to generate gains this week, and this theme is also playing out across our short-interest screen, where every stock in the energy arena has seen its short positioning drastically reduced. Specifically, bearish exposure as a percentage of free float for Fluence Energyfell 10 percentage points to a two-month low of 19.5%, short interest on Northern Oil & Gasfell from 18.4% to a one-year low of 16.1%, while that of HighPeak Energyslipped from 28.4% to a one-month low of 25.3%. Shorts are heading for the exits as the path to an off-ramp from escalation around the Strait of Hormuz - sending oil prices up by about 50% in just three weeks - remains murky, and the performance of those stocks reflect the sharp supply-risk premium: Northern Oil has gained 3% and HighPeak soared by 20%, even though Fluence Energy slipped about 2% in the five-day period covered through Thursday.
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BofA Bullish on U.S. Airlines Ahead of Q2 Earnings
- Strong Demand: BofA analysts highlight that as the summer travel peak approaches, demand for U.S. airlines remains robust, which is expected to drive growth in Q2 earnings and further bolster market confidence.
- Price Target Increases: Reflecting optimism about the industry's recovery, BofA has raised price targets for several airlines based on expectations of stable fares and strong demand, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Stable Summer Fares: Analysts emphasize that stable summer fares indicate successful pricing strategies by airlines, which will help enhance overall profitability and strengthen competitive positioning in the market.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: BofA's bullish outlook reflects confidence in the recovery of the airline sector, which is expected to draw more investment into the industry and drive up related stock prices.
Frontier Airlines and Barclays Extend Credit Card Partnership with New Benefits
- Partnership Renewal: Frontier Airlines and Barclays have extended their 20-year credit card partnership, enhancing customer travel rewards and expanding earning opportunities, which significantly improves customer experience.
- New Benefits Launch: The renewal introduces more Frontier Miles benefits and premium travel options for Frontier customers, thereby increasing customer loyalty and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Marketing Opportunities: Barclays will now market special offers for its savings and personal loan products to Frontier customers, creating new market channels for Barclays while providing more financial options for Frontier's clientele.
- Strategic Implications: This partnership not only solidifies Frontier's position in the airline market but also enhances its brand image through collaboration with Barclays, further driving customer spending and business growth.
American Airlines Stock Surges Nearly 8% Amid Falling Oil Prices
- Oil Price Drop: Benchmark oil prices fell to their lowest levels since before the Iran war, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude trading at $70.20 and $73.42 per barrel respectively, easing cost pressures for airlines and potentially saving them billions in additional costs.
- Airline Stock Surge: American Airlines Group (AAL) saw its stock rise nearly 8%, while Alaska Air Group (ALK) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) increased by about 7% each, and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) advanced approximately 6%, reflecting optimistic market sentiment towards the airline sector.
- Ticket Prices Stability: Although lower fuel costs may bolster airline earnings, ticket prices are unlikely to decline immediately due to tight capacity and prior bookings, which could impact consumer travel expenses in the short term.
- Retail Sentiment Analysis: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AAL and UAL was 'bearish', while ALK was 'extremely bearish', contrasting with 'bullish' sentiment for JBLU, indicating significant differences in market perceptions of various airlines.
Airline Stocks Surge as Crude Prices Plummet
- Crude Price Impact: Airline stocks rose between 3% and 7% on Wednesday as crude prices fell to their lowest since before the Iran war, raising hopes for easing earnings pressure on carriers, although fare reductions for passengers are unlikely to occur immediately.
- Record Airline Index: The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines index surged to an all-time high, up nearly 13% since June 12, while the S&P 500 benchmark dropped 0.5% during the same period, indicating strong performance in the airline sector.
- Cost Savings from Fuel: With crude supplies and prices easing, airlines are expected to save billions in additional costs, although immediate fare reductions remain unlikely due to tight capacity constraints.
- Analyst Optimism: UBS analysts noted that if fuel prices moderate, airlines' third-quarter earnings per share could outperform Wall Street expectations, particularly benefiting those with smaller fleets and a higher proportion of budget customers.
Airlines Stand to Save Billions as Fuel Prices Drop
- Fuel Cost Reduction: Following an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, airlines are poised to save over $40 billion annually on fuel costs, although passengers may not see immediate fare reductions as airlines leverage lower fuel expenses to rebuild margins.
- Fare and Fuel Cost Discrepancy: Despite airlines raising ticket prices to counteract rising fuel costs, data indicates that fuel prices surged three times faster than airfares from January to May, resulting in airlines recovering only about 60% of additional fuel expenditures.
- Uneven Market Response: Outside the U.S., fare relief is likely to be uneven, with airlines potentially maintaining firm fares where demand allows, particularly on short-haul routes, while long-haul fares may see some decline due to better pass-through of fuel costs.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Whether airlines can sustain recent fare increases as fuel prices ease remains a critical question, with industry analysts noting that the strength of consumer demand will directly impact fare stability.
Decline of Low-Cost Airline Options in the U.S.
- Market Shift: The exit of Spirit Airlines has reduced low-cost flight options, forcing consumers to face higher fares during the busy summer travel season, which may adversely affect families and budget travelers.
- Premium Market Growth: Delta Air Lines reported a record annual revenue of $58.3 billion for 2025, despite a $1.1 billion drop in economy ticket sales, with 60% of revenue now coming from premium cabins and loyalty programs, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards higher-end services.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: U.S. carriers spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in March 2026 compared to February, totaling $5.06 billion, which compels airlines to raise fares to cope with rising costs, significantly impacting smaller carriers.
- Future of Low-Cost Carriers: While new entrants like Breeze Airways aim to fill the void left by Spirit, high fuel costs and competitive pressures pose challenges to the profitability of low-cost airlines, leaving their future growth uncertain.
BofA Bullish on U.S. Airlines Ahead of Q2 Earnings
- Strong Demand: BofA analysts highlight that as the summer travel peak approaches, demand for U.S. airlines remains robust, which is expected to drive growth in Q2 earnings and further bolster market confidence.
- Price Target Increases: Reflecting optimism about the industry's recovery, BofA has raised price targets for several airlines based on expectations of stable fares and strong demand, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Stable Summer Fares: Analysts emphasize that stable summer fares indicate successful pricing strategies by airlines, which will help enhance overall profitability and strengthen competitive positioning in the market.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: BofA's bullish outlook reflects confidence in the recovery of the airline sector, which is expected to draw more investment into the industry and drive up related stock prices.
Frontier Airlines and Barclays Extend Credit Card Partnership with New Benefits
- Partnership Renewal: Frontier Airlines and Barclays have extended their 20-year credit card partnership, enhancing customer travel rewards and expanding earning opportunities, which significantly improves customer experience.
- New Benefits Launch: The renewal introduces more Frontier Miles benefits and premium travel options for Frontier customers, thereby increasing customer loyalty and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Marketing Opportunities: Barclays will now market special offers for its savings and personal loan products to Frontier customers, creating new market channels for Barclays while providing more financial options for Frontier's clientele.
- Strategic Implications: This partnership not only solidifies Frontier's position in the airline market but also enhances its brand image through collaboration with Barclays, further driving customer spending and business growth.
American Airlines Stock Surges Nearly 8% Amid Falling Oil Prices
- Oil Price Drop: Benchmark oil prices fell to their lowest levels since before the Iran war, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude trading at $70.20 and $73.42 per barrel respectively, easing cost pressures for airlines and potentially saving them billions in additional costs.
- Airline Stock Surge: American Airlines Group (AAL) saw its stock rise nearly 8%, while Alaska Air Group (ALK) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) increased by about 7% each, and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) advanced approximately 6%, reflecting optimistic market sentiment towards the airline sector.
- Ticket Prices Stability: Although lower fuel costs may bolster airline earnings, ticket prices are unlikely to decline immediately due to tight capacity and prior bookings, which could impact consumer travel expenses in the short term.
- Retail Sentiment Analysis: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AAL and UAL was 'bearish', while ALK was 'extremely bearish', contrasting with 'bullish' sentiment for JBLU, indicating significant differences in market perceptions of various airlines.
Airline Stocks Surge as Crude Prices Plummet
- Crude Price Impact: Airline stocks rose between 3% and 7% on Wednesday as crude prices fell to their lowest since before the Iran war, raising hopes for easing earnings pressure on carriers, although fare reductions for passengers are unlikely to occur immediately.
- Record Airline Index: The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines index surged to an all-time high, up nearly 13% since June 12, while the S&P 500 benchmark dropped 0.5% during the same period, indicating strong performance in the airline sector.
- Cost Savings from Fuel: With crude supplies and prices easing, airlines are expected to save billions in additional costs, although immediate fare reductions remain unlikely due to tight capacity constraints.
- Analyst Optimism: UBS analysts noted that if fuel prices moderate, airlines' third-quarter earnings per share could outperform Wall Street expectations, particularly benefiting those with smaller fleets and a higher proportion of budget customers.
Airlines Stand to Save Billions as Fuel Prices Drop
- Fuel Cost Reduction: Following an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, airlines are poised to save over $40 billion annually on fuel costs, although passengers may not see immediate fare reductions as airlines leverage lower fuel expenses to rebuild margins.
- Fare and Fuel Cost Discrepancy: Despite airlines raising ticket prices to counteract rising fuel costs, data indicates that fuel prices surged three times faster than airfares from January to May, resulting in airlines recovering only about 60% of additional fuel expenditures.
- Uneven Market Response: Outside the U.S., fare relief is likely to be uneven, with airlines potentially maintaining firm fares where demand allows, particularly on short-haul routes, while long-haul fares may see some decline due to better pass-through of fuel costs.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Whether airlines can sustain recent fare increases as fuel prices ease remains a critical question, with industry analysts noting that the strength of consumer demand will directly impact fare stability.
Decline of Low-Cost Airline Options in the U.S.
- Market Shift: The exit of Spirit Airlines has reduced low-cost flight options, forcing consumers to face higher fares during the busy summer travel season, which may adversely affect families and budget travelers.
- Premium Market Growth: Delta Air Lines reported a record annual revenue of $58.3 billion for 2025, despite a $1.1 billion drop in economy ticket sales, with 60% of revenue now coming from premium cabins and loyalty programs, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards higher-end services.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: U.S. carriers spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in March 2026 compared to February, totaling $5.06 billion, which compels airlines to raise fares to cope with rising costs, significantly impacting smaller carriers.
- Future of Low-Cost Carriers: While new entrants like Breeze Airways aim to fill the void left by Spirit, high fuel costs and competitive pressures pose challenges to the profitability of low-cost airlines, leaving their future growth uncertain.
