Eli Lilly Strengthens Lead in Weight Loss Drug Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Share Leadership: Eli Lilly currently holds a 60% share of the U.S. weight loss drug market, surpassing Novo Nordisk's offerings, demonstrating strong competitiveness in this rapidly growing sector and likely driving further revenue growth.
- Clinical Trial Advantage: In the latest clinical trial, Lilly's Zepbound helped patients lose over 25% of their weight over 84 weeks, compared to only 23% for Novo's CagriSema, indicating superior efficacy and solidifying its market leadership.
- Convenience Enhancement: Lilly's newly released Zepbound format holds a month's worth of doses in a single pen, improving medication convenience for patients, especially while traveling, which is expected to enhance patient adherence and market appeal.
- Broad Market Outlook: Analysts expect the weight loss drug market to reach nearly $100 billion over the next four years, with Lilly's new drug orforglipron and other potential products poised to drive further growth, despite facing challenges from competitors like Novo Nordisk.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1028.830
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1028.830
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Intensifying Competition: Over the past three years, Eli Lilly's revenue surged by 135%, while Novo Nordisk's growth stagnated at 77%, indicating a weakening competitive position in the weight-loss drug market and a serious threat to its market share.
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- Intensifying Competition: Over the past three years, Eli Lilly's revenue surged by 135%, while Novo Nordisk's growth stagnated at 77%, indicating a weakening competitive position in the weight-loss drug market and a serious threat to its market share.
- Price Cut Pressures: The company announced further price cuts for its weight-loss drug Wegovy in 2027, with potential reductions of up to 50%, which could significantly impact future revenues and increase market uncertainty.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Although Novo Nordisk's P/E ratio is approaching 10, lower than Eli Lilly's, investor concerns over market share losses and price cuts have led to perceptions of the stock as a poor investment, likely resulting in further sell-offs.
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Future Prospects: Experts are divided on the future of AI trade, with some predicting a resurgence driven by innovation, while others caution about potential market saturation.
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- Surge in Patient Treatments: In Q4, 64 patients received Casgevy infusions, with 147 initiating treatment in the first quarter of 2025, nearly tripling 2024 levels, suggesting that successful patient recruitment will drive substantial revenue growth in the future.
- Analyst Optimism: William Blair analyst Sami Corwin noted that the increase in first cell collections strengthens confidence in significantly higher revenue expectations for 2026, reflecting market confidence in CRISPR's future performance.
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- Weight Loss Impact: Participants using orforglipron lost an average of 19.7 lbs (9.2%), which is 73.6% greater than the weight loss observed with semaglutide, highlighting the drug's potential in weight management.
- Regulatory Submission Progress: Lilly has submitted orforglipron for regulatory approval in over 40 countries, with a potential U.S. decision for obesity treatment expected in the second quarter of 2026, indicating a promising market outlook.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite a broader market decline, Eli Lilly's stock shows resilience, trading at $1008.53, which is 5.2% and 8.4% below its 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, reflecting short-term market pressures.
See More
