Eli Lilly Faces Intense Competition in GLP-1 Drug Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 19 hours ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Market Performance: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs accounted for 56% of the company's revenue in 2025, with Mounjaro sales rising 99% year-over-year and Zepbound increasing by 175%, showcasing robust performance in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market.
- Intensifying Competition: Despite Eli Lilly's leading position in the GLP-1 market, Novo Nordisk has launched a competing GLP-1 pill, potentially regaining market share, while Pfizer is also aggressively entering this space, heightening competitive pressures.
- Valuation Pressures: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 45x, the market has high expectations for Eli Lilly's future performance, and any shortfall in 2026 earnings could lead to a significant stock price pullback, necessitating careful investor evaluation.
- Limited Patent Protection: The market exclusivity for new drugs is finite, and once patents expire, generic competition typically leads to substantial revenue declines for branded drugs, indicating that Eli Lilly's GLP-1 success may not be sustainable, highlighting potential long-term risks for investors.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1023.220
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1023.220
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Clear Competitive Advantage: Eli Lilly's success in the obesity drug sector, combined with multiple growth catalysts, enhances its competitive position in the healthcare industry, likely attracting more investor attention.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite Eli Lilly's impressive performance, the Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team did not include it in their current list of top investment stocks, advising investors to consider their decisions carefully.
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- Future Growth Potential: Field expects investor focus to shift towards Eli Lilly's upcoming orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 medication anticipated to be approved in Q2 2026, which could further solidify its market position.
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- Optimistic Market Outlook: Analysts have set a target stock price of $1,500 for Eli Lilly, reflecting high market recognition of its long-term investment value, which could yield substantial returns for investors.
- Clear Competitive Advantage: Eli Lilly's success in the obesity drug sector, combined with multiple growth catalysts, enhances its competitive position in the healthcare industry, likely attracting more investor attention.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite Eli Lilly's impressive performance, the Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team did not include it in their current list of top investment stocks, advising investors to consider their decisions carefully.
See More
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- Blue Owl Capital Loan Sales: Blue Owl Capital's loan sales are part of a plan to return capital to investors, and while observers have raised 'canary in the coal mine' warnings regarding mispriced private credit loans, the situation does not appear tragic, potentially offering market opportunities.
- Weak U.S. GDP: The preliminary fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth came in at just 1.4%, significantly below expectations, with the government shutdown likely dragging on growth, leading to market concerns about future economic recovery challenges.
- Texas Roadhouse Strong Performance: Texas Roadhouse shares rose over 3% in early trading, as the market overlooked a weak fourth quarter due to a strong start in Q1, indicating sustained consumer demand for dining despite ongoing beef inflation challenges.
- Klarna's Disappointing Earnings: Klarna reported a wider-than-expected net loss for the quarter, and its fiscal 2026 outlook fell short across key metrics, prompting JPMorgan and UBS to cut their price targets to $20, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
See More
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- Pharmaceutical Leadership: Barclays upgraded Eli Lilly to overweight, asserting that its GLP-1 drugs signify a durable structural shift in obesity treatment, positioning the company for sustained long-term growth as a market leader.
- E-commerce Valuation Boost: Barclays raised Etsy's rating from equal weight to overweight, anticipating that as topline growth improves, EBITDA valuations will expand, setting a price target of $72, reflecting optimism about future performance.
- Tech Stock Buying Opportunity: Citigroup reiterated Microsoft as a buy, highlighting that the stock is at a decade low valuation and trading at a discount to the S&P 500 on forward P/E, suggesting investors should seize the buying opportunity.
- Aerospace Service Growth: Morgan Stanley upgraded GE Aerospace to overweight with a price target of $425, citing the company's advantages in durable service growth, pricing power, and a strong balance sheet, with future free cash flow likely underestimated.
See More
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- Market Leadership: Barclays initiated coverage on Eli Lilly with an overweight rating and a $1,350 price target, indicating a 32% upside, reflecting confidence in its position in the GLP-1 drug market.
- Product Competitiveness: Analyst Emily Field highlighted that Eli Lilly's tirzepatide is the best product available today in terms of safety and efficacy, likely maintaining market leadership despite competition from AstraZeneca and Amgen.
- Future Growth Potential: Field expects investor focus to shift towards Eli Lilly's upcoming orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 medication anticipated to be approved in Q2 2026, which could further solidify its market position.
- Consumer Platform Advantage: Eli Lilly's strong patient-centric focus and direct-to-consumer platform, Lilly Direct, are seen as significant barriers for new entrants, ensuring that despite market price resets, Lilly remains the best option in this space.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Promising Long-Term Data for Crohn's Disease Treatment
- Significant Clinical Efficacy: Eli Lilly's latest data on Omvoh (mirikizumab-mrkz) for Crohn's disease indicates that over 90% of patients maintained steroid-free remission for three years, with a clinical remission rate of 92.4%, showcasing the drug's long-term effectiveness and potentially boosting patient confidence in treatment.
- Dramatic Reduction in Hospitalizations: In the VIVID-1 study, the incidence of hospitalizations and surgeries in the Omvoh treatment group was nearly halved in the first 12 weeks (16.9 vs. 30.9 per 100 patient-years) and reduced by nearly 70% during weeks 12 to 52 (4.5 vs. 14.0), indicating a significant advantage in mitigating Crohn's disease-related complications.
- Enhanced Market Competitiveness: As the only IL-23p19 inhibitor demonstrating durable efficacy and significant improvements in bowel urgency, Omvoh strengthens Eli Lilly's competitive position in the inflammatory bowel disease treatment market, potentially attracting more patients to its offerings.
- Stable Stock Performance: Although the stock is currently trading 1.7% below its 20-day simple moving average, it has increased 17.19% over the past 12 months and is nearing its 52-week highs, reflecting a strong upward trend, and combined with Benzinga Edge rankings, Eli Lilly continues to perform robustly in the market.
See More
Pfizer Navigates Transition to New Growth Phase
- Vaccine Revenue Decline: Pfizer generated over $37 billion from its coronavirus vaccine in 2022, but as demand wanes and older blockbuster drugs face patent expirations, the company is forced to reassess its revenue structure to adapt to market changes.
- Acquisition-Driven Growth: Following its acquisition of Seagen, Pfizer's bladder cancer drug Padcev has achieved over 10% growth, generating more than $1 billion in annual revenue, demonstrating the company's strategic focus and market potential in oncology.
- Weight Loss Market Opportunity: Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera positions it in the rapidly growing weight loss drug market, expected to approach $100 billion by the end of the decade, with its candidate's monthly dosing research potentially enhancing its competitive edge.
- Revenue Growth Momentum: Recent product launches and acquisitions have contributed to over $10 billion in revenue for Pfizer, a 12.4% increase year-over-year, with plans to meet cost-saving goals by year-end and reinvest $500 million in R&D, showcasing strong growth potential.
See More
