Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Competition
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 12 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Share Shift: Since June 2024, prescriptions for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs have declined in the U.S., while Eli Lilly's market share has risen to 60%, demonstrating its strong competitive position in the weight loss drug market.
- Clinical Trial Results: Eli Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trials, with participants losing an average of 50 pounds over 72 weeks compared to Wegovy's 33 pounds, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in the weight loss drug sector.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli Lilly has committed over $50 billion to new manufacturing sites and expansions, announcing 10 U.S. facilities to meet growing market demand and ensure future supply capabilities.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron is awaiting regulatory approval, with a decision expected by April 10, which, if approved, could provide a significant competitive advantage and further reinforce Lilly's market leadership.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy LLY?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 954.520
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 954.520
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Launches New Obesity Drug Foundayo
- FDA Approval: Eli Lilly's Foundayo™ (orforglipron) has received FDA approval, specifically designed for adults with obesity or overweight and related medical issues, which is expected to significantly enhance patient weight management outcomes.
- Significant Weight Loss: In the ATTAIN-1 clinical trial, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 27.3 pounds (12.4%), compared to just 2.2 pounds (0.9%) in the placebo group, demonstrating Foundayo's efficacy and market potential.
- Convenient Access: Foundayo will be available through LillyDirect®, with commercial insurance patients paying only $25 per month and self-pay patients at $149, which is expected to improve drug accessibility and meet the needs of obesity patients.
- Global Rollout Plan: Lilly plans to launch Foundayo in over 40 countries shortly after approval, aiming to enhance the quality of life for obesity patients worldwide by providing effective treatment options.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy Subscription Plan to Regain Market Share
- Market Share Challenge: Novo Nordisk has lost its leading position in the anti-obesity market to Eli Lilly, and despite launching new drugs and label expansions, the market penetration remains insufficient, indicating increasing competitive pressure.
- Obesity Patient Status: Approximately 40.3% of adults in the U.S. are classified as obese, but some studies suggest this figure could be as high as 70%, highlighting a significant potential market; however, only 12% of patients are currently using GLP-1 drugs, revealing a substantial opportunity.
- New Subscription Plan: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription plan for Wegovy lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access discounts through telehealth platforms, aiming to enhance drug accessibility and expand market reach.
- Future Outlook: While Novo Nordisk's subscription plan may not fully reclaim market share, its pipeline progress and relatively low valuation (11x forward earnings) could present an attractive opportunity for investors, especially as growth is expected to rebound in the coming years.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches New Subscription Model to Expand Market Reach
- Market Potential: Research indicates that approximately 70% of adults in the U.S. may be obese, yet only 12% are currently using GLP-1 drugs, highlighting significant growth opportunities in the weight loss drug market that Novo Nordisk needs to capitalize on.
- New Subscription Model: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription model for Wegovy prescriptions lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access lower prescription costs through telehealth platforms, which is expected to significantly enhance drug accessibility and attract more users.
- Competitive Pressure: While Novo Nordisk's subscription model may help expand its market share, the potential for Eli Lilly to adjust its pricing poses uncertainty regarding Novo Nordisk's ability to regain its market leadership position.
- Attractive Valuation: Currently, Novo Nordisk trades at an 11x forward earnings multiple, which is below the healthcare sector average of 17.3x, suggesting that investors purchasing its shares at this level may achieve favorable returns.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Faces Challenges in Weight Loss Market
- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate VK2735 is undergoing pivotal 78-week phase 3 studies, with the second study recently completing enrollment; strong results could establish a solid foundation for the company in the competitive weight-loss market.
- Significant Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, highlighting the drug's market potential as the weight-loss sector is projected to exceed $100 billion in the next decade.
- Increasing Competitive Pressure: While VK2735 aims to match the efficacy of Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Viking Therapeutics must demonstrate exceptional results in clinical trials to secure its position in the weight-loss drug market as competition intensifies.
- Investment Risk Advisory: Viking Therapeutics faces clinical, regulatory, competitive, and funding challenges, and while its stock may soar over the next decade, the risk of bankruptcy remains, necessitating cautious consideration from investors.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Faces Major Clinical Challenges Ahead
- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate VK2735 is undergoing two 78-week phase 3 studies, with the second recently completing enrollment; strong results could significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the rapidly growing weight-loss market.
- Massive Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, and if it matches Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Viking's stock price could soar.
- Oral Drug Advantage: Viking's oral VK2735 completed phase 2 studies last year, and if it performs well in pivotal trials, it will further solidify its market position, particularly in attracting patients hesitant about injectable medications.
- Risks and Challenges: Despite the optimistic outlook, Viking Therapeutics faces clinical and regulatory risks, and increasing competition may hinder its commercial success, necessitating cautious evaluation of potential risks by investors.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Eli Lilly Launches New Obesity Drug Foundayo
- FDA Approval: Eli Lilly's Foundayo™ (orforglipron) has received FDA approval, specifically designed for adults with obesity or overweight and related medical issues, which is expected to significantly enhance patient weight management outcomes.
- Significant Weight Loss: In the ATTAIN-1 clinical trial, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 27.3 pounds (12.4%), compared to just 2.2 pounds (0.9%) in the placebo group, demonstrating Foundayo's efficacy and market potential.
- Convenient Access: Foundayo will be available through LillyDirect®, with commercial insurance patients paying only $25 per month and self-pay patients at $149, which is expected to improve drug accessibility and meet the needs of obesity patients.
- Global Rollout Plan: Lilly plans to launch Foundayo in over 40 countries shortly after approval, aiming to enhance the quality of life for obesity patients worldwide by providing effective treatment options.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy Subscription Plan to Regain Market Share
- Market Share Challenge: Novo Nordisk has lost its leading position in the anti-obesity market to Eli Lilly, and despite launching new drugs and label expansions, the market penetration remains insufficient, indicating increasing competitive pressure.
- Obesity Patient Status: Approximately 40.3% of adults in the U.S. are classified as obese, but some studies suggest this figure could be as high as 70%, highlighting a significant potential market; however, only 12% of patients are currently using GLP-1 drugs, revealing a substantial opportunity.
- New Subscription Plan: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription plan for Wegovy lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access discounts through telehealth platforms, aiming to enhance drug accessibility and expand market reach.
- Future Outlook: While Novo Nordisk's subscription plan may not fully reclaim market share, its pipeline progress and relatively low valuation (11x forward earnings) could present an attractive opportunity for investors, especially as growth is expected to rebound in the coming years.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches New Subscription Model to Expand Market Reach
- Market Potential: Research indicates that approximately 70% of adults in the U.S. may be obese, yet only 12% are currently using GLP-1 drugs, highlighting significant growth opportunities in the weight loss drug market that Novo Nordisk needs to capitalize on.
- New Subscription Model: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription model for Wegovy prescriptions lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access lower prescription costs through telehealth platforms, which is expected to significantly enhance drug accessibility and attract more users.
- Competitive Pressure: While Novo Nordisk's subscription model may help expand its market share, the potential for Eli Lilly to adjust its pricing poses uncertainty regarding Novo Nordisk's ability to regain its market leadership position.
- Attractive Valuation: Currently, Novo Nordisk trades at an 11x forward earnings multiple, which is below the healthcare sector average of 17.3x, suggesting that investors purchasing its shares at this level may achieve favorable returns.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Faces Challenges in Weight Loss Market
- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate VK2735 is undergoing pivotal 78-week phase 3 studies, with the second study recently completing enrollment; strong results could establish a solid foundation for the company in the competitive weight-loss market.
- Significant Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, highlighting the drug's market potential as the weight-loss sector is projected to exceed $100 billion in the next decade.
- Increasing Competitive Pressure: While VK2735 aims to match the efficacy of Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Viking Therapeutics must demonstrate exceptional results in clinical trials to secure its position in the weight-loss drug market as competition intensifies.
- Investment Risk Advisory: Viking Therapeutics faces clinical, regulatory, competitive, and funding challenges, and while its stock may soar over the next decade, the risk of bankruptcy remains, necessitating cautious consideration from investors.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Faces Major Clinical Challenges Ahead
- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate VK2735 is undergoing two 78-week phase 3 studies, with the second recently completing enrollment; strong results could significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the rapidly growing weight-loss market.
- Massive Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, and if it matches Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Viking's stock price could soar.
- Oral Drug Advantage: Viking's oral VK2735 completed phase 2 studies last year, and if it performs well in pivotal trials, it will further solidify its market position, particularly in attracting patients hesitant about injectable medications.
- Risks and Challenges: Despite the optimistic outlook, Viking Therapeutics faces clinical and regulatory risks, and increasing competition may hinder its commercial success, necessitating cautious evaluation of potential risks by investors.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
